Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1761-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1761-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Aug 2025
Research article |
| 21 Aug 2025
| 21 Aug 2025
Assessing subseasonal forecast skill for use in predicting US coastal inundation risk
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Matthew Newman
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Magdalena A. Balmaseda
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
William Sweet
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
NOAA National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, USA
Yan Wang
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Tongtong Xu
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
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Short summary
Providing early warning of coastal flooding is an emerging priority for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We assess whether current operational forecast models can provide the basis for predicting the risks of higher-than-normal coastal sea level values up to 6 weeks in advance. For many United States coastal locations, models have sufficient prediction skill to be used as the basis for the development of a high tide flooding prediction system on subseasonal timescales.
Providing early warning of coastal flooding is an emerging priority for the National Oceanic and...
