Ocean Science
Ocean Science
OS
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1663-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1663-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
Research article
 | 
05 Aug 2025
Research article |  | 05 Aug 2025

Indications of improved seasonal sea level forecasts for the United States Gulf Coast and East Coast using ocean dynamic persistence

Xue Feng, Matthew J. Widlansky, Tong Lee, Ou Wang, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Gregory Dusek, William Sweet, and Malte F. Stuecker

Data sets

Hourly tide gauge data [data set] NOAA https://api.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/api/prod/

Global Ocean Gridded L 4 Sea Surface Heights And Derived Variables Reprocessed Copernicus Marine Service https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00145

Seasonal forecast monthly averages of ocean variables Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.2f9be611

ECCO Central Estimate (Version 4 Release 4) ECCO Consortium et al. https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/ECCO

ORAS5 global ocean reanalysis monthly data from 1958 to present Copernicus Climate Change Service https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.67e8eeb7

Monthly Mean Sea Surface Height from Dynamic Persistence Forecasts Based on ECCO Version 4 Release 4 (V4r4) (1.0) Ou Wang and Tong Lee https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16707942

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Short summary
Forecasting sea level changes months in advance along the Gulf Coast and East Coast of the United States is challenging. Here, we present a method that uses past ocean states to forecast future sea levels, while assuming no knowledge of how the atmosphere will evolve other than its typical annual cycle near the ocean's surface. Our findings indicate that this method improves sea level outlooks for many locations along the Gulf Coast and East Coast, especially south of Cape Hatteras.
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