Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Machine learning methods to predict sea surface temperature and marine heatwave occurrence: a case study of the Mediterranean Sea
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
Giuliano Galimberti
Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Simona Masina
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
Ronan McAdam
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
Emanuela Clementi
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
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- Promoting best practices in ocean forecasting through an Operational Readiness Level E. Alvarez Fanjul et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1443284
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- Marine heatwaves disrupt germination and seedling physiology in Zostera marina R. Pieraccini et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107789
- A Dual-Branch Encoder–Decoder Network with Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory and Efficient Channel Attention for Forecasting Summer Marine Heatwaves in the East China Sea Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14151421
- Estimating the importance of environmental factors influencing the urban heat island for urban areas in Greece. A machine learning approach I. Petrou & P. Kassomenos https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122255
- Physically constrained air–sea heat flux driven modeling of sea surface temperature using atmospheric and oceanographic variables with explainable AI O. Katipoğlu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jer.2026.01.002
- Artificial intelligence, capability transformation, and marine green development: empirical evidence from Coastal China D. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1816756
- An Informer-based prediction model for extensive spatiotemporal prediction of sea surface temperature and marine heatwave in Bohai Sea J. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2024.104037
- TL-iTransformer: Revolutionizing sea surface temperature prediction through iTransformer and transfer learning W. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01436-x
- A Diffusion Weighted Ensemble Framework for Robust Short-Horizon Global SST Forecasting from Multivariate GODAS Data G. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/math14040740
- Multi-Dilated Convolutional LSTM With U-Net for Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting M. Janmaijaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3486914
- Review article: Harnessing data-driven methods for climate multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment D. Ferrario et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2975-2026
- Predicting Tomorrow: A Review of Machine Learning’s Role in Shaping Environmental Forecasts S. Ferebee https://doi.org/10.70389/PJS.100008
- OceanMind: Heterogeneity-Aware Spatiotemporal Learning for Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting S. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2026.3711072
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- Design and experimental evaluation of a high-accuracy air temperature measurement instrument for meteorological applications K. Yuan et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0313395
- A multi-resolution diffusion network for sea surface temperature anomaly detection P. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44443-026-00882-5
- Subsurface marine heatwaves: challenging to detect at the surface yet critically important S. Hu https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-025-5225-7
- A Lightweight Field-to-Site Coupled Framework for 15-Day Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting in Marine Ranching Areas: A Case Study in the Northern Yellow Sea B. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18142374
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- Breaking the Heat Code with Transparent AI Models for Predicting Extreme Temperatures I. Muraina et al. https://doi.org/10.37394/23205.2025.24.25
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- Improved coral bleaching prediction using downscaled degree heating weeks derived from integrated thermal remote sensing products across multiple spatiotemporal scales H. Mizuochi et al. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.21269
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- Marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea: a convolutional neural network study for extreme event prediction A. Parasyris et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-897-2025
- PISEM: A Physics-Informed Spatiotemporal Encoding Model for Sea Surface Temperature Prediction J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2026.3705088
- Marine Heatwaves and NAO-Related Ocean–Atmosphere Variability in the North Atlantic B. Lopes et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18142363
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- Separating Sensor-like Anomalies from Regional Oceanographic Events: A Machine-Learning-Assisted, Physics-Guided, Event-Preserving Quality-Control Framework for Coastal Buoy Temperature Records H. Joo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse14161462
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 26 Aug 2026
Short summary
This study employs machine learning to predict marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea. MHWs have far-reaching impacts on society and ecosystems. Using data from ESA and ECMWF, the research develops accurate prediction models for sea surface temperature (SST) and MHWs across the region. Notably, machine learning methods outperform existing forecasting systems, showing promise in early MHW predictions. The study also highlights the importance of solar radiation as a predictor of SST.
This study employs machine learning to predict marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea....