Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Machine learning methods to predict sea surface temperature and marine heatwave occurrence: a case study of the Mediterranean Sea
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
Giuliano Galimberti
Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Simona Masina
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
Ronan McAdam
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
Emanuela Clementi
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy
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- Subsurface marine heatwaves: challenging to detect at the surface yet critically important S. Hu https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-025-5225-7
- Skillful subseasonal Indian Ocean marine heatwave forecasts using a neural network L. Howard et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/eds.2026.10033
- Promoting best practices in ocean forecasting through an Operational Readiness Level E. Alvarez Fanjul et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1443284
- A Lightweight Field-to-Site Coupled Framework for 15-Day Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting in Marine Ranching Areas: A Case Study in the Northern Yellow Sea B. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18142374
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- Resilient Anomaly Detection in Ocean Drifters with Unsupervised Learning, Deep Learning Models, and Energy-Efficient Recovery C. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans7010005
- Breaking the Heat Code with Transparent AI Models for Predicting Extreme Temperatures I. Muraina et al. https://doi.org/10.37394/23205.2025.24.25
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- Artificial intelligence, capability transformation, and marine green development: empirical evidence from Coastal China D. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1816756
- An in-depth investigation of global sea surface temperature behavior utilizing chaotic modeling M. Minaei et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-33790-0
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- TL-iTransformer: Revolutionizing sea surface temperature prediction through iTransformer and transfer learning W. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01436-x
- A Diffusion Weighted Ensemble Framework for Robust Short-Horizon Global SST Forecasting from Multivariate GODAS Data G. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/math14040740
- Extreme marine heatwave linked to mass fish kill in the Red Sea M. Tietbohl et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179073
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- What makes a marine heatwave forecast useable, useful and used? C. Spillman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103464
- Multi-Dilated Convolutional LSTM With U-Net for Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting M. Janmaijaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3486914
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- A Machine Learning-Based Bias Correction Scheme for the All-Sky Assimilation of AGRI Infrared Radiances in a Regional OSSE Framework X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2024.3427434
- Factors Influencing Endangered Marine Species in the Mediterranean Sea: An Analysis Based on IUCN Red List Criteria Using Statistical and Soft Computing Methodologies D. Klaoudatos et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments11070151
- The elusive spinetail devil ray (Mobula mobular): a multimethod approach to track its presence in the Spanish Mediterranean Sea P. Carrasco‐Puig et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.70241
- Marine Heatwaves and Cold Spells in Global Coral Reef Regions (1982–2070): Characteristics, Drivers, and Impacts H. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17162881
- Best practices for AI-based image analysis applications in aquatic sciences: The iMagine case study E. Azmi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103306
- Design and experimental evaluation of a high-accuracy air temperature measurement instrument for meteorological applications K. Yuan et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0313395
37 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Machine learning techniques for marine heatwave prediction: a comprehensive review S. Welandawe et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44295-025-00076-1
- Subsurface marine heatwaves: challenging to detect at the surface yet critically important S. Hu https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-025-5225-7
- Skillful subseasonal Indian Ocean marine heatwave forecasts using a neural network L. Howard et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/eds.2026.10033
- Promoting best practices in ocean forecasting through an Operational Readiness Level E. Alvarez Fanjul et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1443284
- A Lightweight Field-to-Site Coupled Framework for 15-Day Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting in Marine Ranching Areas: A Case Study in the Northern Yellow Sea B. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18142374
- Two-phase CNN for model data fusion: Predicting 3D chlorophyll-a in the Mediterranean Sea T. Tonelli et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102707
- Unveiling summer marine heatwave onset mechanisms in the South China sea using an explainable deep learning method M. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07817-2
- Decentralized control strategies with predictive disturbance rejection for OC-OTEC plant in Lakshadweep using deep learning S. Sutha et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwpe.2024.105539
- Resilient Anomaly Detection in Ocean Drifters with Unsupervised Learning, Deep Learning Models, and Energy-Efficient Recovery C. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans7010005
- Breaking the Heat Code with Transparent AI Models for Predicting Extreme Temperatures I. Muraina et al. https://doi.org/10.37394/23205.2025.24.25
- Marine heatwaves disrupt germination and seedling physiology in Zostera marina R. Pieraccini et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107789
- Estimating the importance of environmental factors influencing the urban heat island for urban areas in Greece. A machine learning approach I. Petrou & P. Kassomenos https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122255
- Improved coral bleaching prediction using downscaled degree heating weeks derived from integrated thermal remote sensing products across multiple spatiotemporal scales H. Mizuochi et al. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.21269
- Physically constrained air–sea heat flux driven modeling of sea surface temperature using atmospheric and oceanographic variables with explainable AI O. Katipoğlu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jer.2026.01.002
- Artificial intelligence, capability transformation, and marine green development: empirical evidence from Coastal China D. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1816756
- An in-depth investigation of global sea surface temperature behavior utilizing chaotic modeling M. Minaei et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-33790-0
- Trends and variability of marine heatwaves in Portuguese coastal waters M. Monteiro et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179161
- An Informer-based prediction model for extensive spatiotemporal prediction of sea surface temperature and marine heatwave in Bohai Sea J. He et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2024.104037
- TL-iTransformer: Revolutionizing sea surface temperature prediction through iTransformer and transfer learning W. Jia et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01436-x
- A Diffusion Weighted Ensemble Framework for Robust Short-Horizon Global SST Forecasting from Multivariate GODAS Data G. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/math14040740
- Extreme marine heatwave linked to mass fish kill in the Red Sea M. Tietbohl et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179073
- Mediterranean summer marine heatwaves triggered by weaker winds under subtropical ridges G. Bonino et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01762-9
- Mapping anchovy species distribution and identifying potential fishing grounds in the Gulf of Thailand . Chatthong, S. et al. https://doi.org/10.63369/ijat.2026.22.1.71-88
- What makes a marine heatwave forecast useable, useful and used? C. Spillman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103464
- Multi-Dilated Convolutional LSTM With U-Net for Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting M. Janmaijaya et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3486914
- Review article: Harnessing data-driven methods for climate multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment D. Ferrario et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2975-2026
- Predicting Tomorrow: A Review of Machine Learning’s Role in Shaping Environmental Forecasts S. Ferebee https://doi.org/10.70389/PJS.100008
- Improving marine heatwave statistics in global climate models using machine learning: a case study for the north–west European Shelf J. Becherer & T. Pohlmann https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08127-x
- Marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea: a convolutional neural network study for extreme event prediction A. Parasyris et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-897-2025
- PISEM: A Physics-Informed Spatiotemporal Encoding Model for Sea Surface Temperature Prediction J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2026.3705088
- Marine Heatwaves and NAO-Related Ocean–Atmosphere Variability in the North Atlantic B. Lopes et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18142363
- A Machine Learning-Based Bias Correction Scheme for the All-Sky Assimilation of AGRI Infrared Radiances in a Regional OSSE Framework X. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2024.3427434
- Factors Influencing Endangered Marine Species in the Mediterranean Sea: An Analysis Based on IUCN Red List Criteria Using Statistical and Soft Computing Methodologies D. Klaoudatos et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments11070151
- The elusive spinetail devil ray (Mobula mobular): a multimethod approach to track its presence in the Spanish Mediterranean Sea P. Carrasco‐Puig et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.70241
- Marine Heatwaves and Cold Spells in Global Coral Reef Regions (1982–2070): Characteristics, Drivers, and Impacts H. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17162881
- Best practices for AI-based image analysis applications in aquatic sciences: The iMagine case study E. Azmi et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103306
- Design and experimental evaluation of a high-accuracy air temperature measurement instrument for meteorological applications K. Yuan et al. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0313395
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 26 Jul 2026
Short summary
This study employs machine learning to predict marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea. MHWs have far-reaching impacts on society and ecosystems. Using data from ESA and ECMWF, the research develops accurate prediction models for sea surface temperature (SST) and MHWs across the region. Notably, machine learning methods outperform existing forecasting systems, showing promise in early MHW predictions. The study also highlights the importance of solar radiation as a predictor of SST.
This study employs machine learning to predict marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea....