Articles | Volume 19, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-499-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-499-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Apr 2023
Research article |
| 21 Apr 2023
| 21 Apr 2023
Improving statistical projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change using pattern recognition techniques
Víctor Malagón-Santos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Estuarine & Delta Systems, P.O. Box 140, 4400 AC Yerseke, the Netherlands
Aimée B. A. Slangen
NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Estuarine & Delta Systems, P.O. Box 140, 4400 AC Yerseke, the Netherlands
Tim H. J. Hermans
NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Estuarine & Delta Systems, P.O. Box 140, 4400 AC Yerseke, the Netherlands
University of Utrecht, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht, the Netherlands
Sönke Dangendorf
Department of River–Coastal Science and Engineering, Tulane University, New Orleans, USA
Marta Marcos
Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA), Spanish National Research Council–University of Balearic Islands (CSIC-UIB), Esporles, Spain
Nicola Maher
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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Long Jiang, Theo Gerkema, Déborah Idier, Aimée B. A. Slangen, and Karline Soetaert
Ocean Sci., 16, 307–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-307-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-307-2020, 2020
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Verónica Morales-Márquez, Alejandro Orfila, Gonzalo Simarro, Lluís Gómez-Pujol, Amaya Álvarez-Ellacuría, Daniel Conti, Álvaro Galán, Andrés F. Osorio, and Marta Marcos
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This work analyzes the response of a beach under a series of storms using a numerical model, in situ measurements and video imaging.
Time recovery after storms is a key issue for local beach managers, who are pressed by tourism stakeholders to nourish the beach
after energetic processes in order to reach the quality standards required by beach users.
Renske C. de Winter, Thomas J. Reerink, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Hylke de Vries, Tamsin Edwards, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2125–2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017, 2017
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Tony E. Wong, Alexander M. R. Bakker, Kelsey Ruckert, Patrick Applegate, Aimée B. A. Slangen, and Klaus Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2741–2760, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2741-2017, 2017
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Alejandra R. Enríquez, Marta Marcos, Amaya Álvarez-Ellacuría, Alejandro Orfila, and Damià Gomis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1075–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1075-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1075-2017, 2017
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In this work we assess the impacts in reshaping coastlines as a result of sea level rise and changes in wave climate. The methodology proposed combines two wave models to resolve the wave processes in two micro-tidal sandy beaches in Mallorca island, western Mediterranean. The modelling approach is validated with observations. Our results indicate that the studied beaches would suffer a coastal retreat of between 7 and up to 50 m, equivalent to half of the present-day aerial beach surface.
A. B. A. Slangen, R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada, and L. L. A. Vermeersen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 243–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-243-2014, 2014
A. B. A. Slangen and R. S. W. van de Wal
The Cryosphere, 5, 673–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-673-2011, 2011
Related subject area
Approach: Numerical Models | Properties and processes: Sea level | Depth range: Surface | Geographical range: All Geographic Regions | Challenges: Oceans and climate
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The transient sensitivity of sea level rise
Sam Royston, Rory J. Bingham, and Jonathan L. Bamber
Ocean Sci., 18, 1093–1107, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022, 2022
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Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes and increases uncertainty in observed trend and acceleration estimates. We use numerical ocean models to determine the magnitude of decadal variability we might expect in sea-level trends at coastal locations around the world, resulting from natural, internal variability. A proportion of that variability can be replicated from known climate modes, giving a range to add to short- to mid-term projections of regional sea-level trends.
Patrick Wagner, Markus Scheinert, and Claus W. Böning
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Aslak Grinsted and Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Ocean Sci., 17, 181–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021, 2021
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As we warm our planet, oceans expand, ice on land melts, and sea levels rise. On century timescales, we find that the sea level response to warming can be characterized by a single metric: the transient sea level sensitivity. Historical sea level exhibits substantially higher sensitivity than model-based estimates of future climates in authoritative climate assessments, implying recent projections could well underestimate the likely sea level rise by the end of this century.
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Short summary
Climate change will alter heat and freshwater fluxes as well as ocean circulation, driving local changes in sea level. This sea-level change component is known as ocean dynamic sea level (DSL), and it is usually projected using computationally expensive global climate models. Statistical models are a cheaper alternative for projecting DSL but may contain significant errors. Here, we partly remove those errors (driven by internal climate variability) by using pattern recognition techniques.
Climate change will alter heat and freshwater fluxes as well as ocean circulation, driving local...
