Articles | Volume 18, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-905-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-905-2022
Technical note
 | 
13 Jun 2022
Technical note |  | 13 Jun 2022

Technical note: Tail behaviour of the statistical distribution of extreme storm surges

Tom Howard

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Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore
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Sources of 21st century regional sea-level rise along the coast of northwest Europe
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The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise
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Cited articles

Batstone, C., Lawless, M., Tawn, J., Horsburgh, K., Blackman, D., McMillan, A., Worth, D., Laeger, S., and Hunt, T.: A UK best-practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines, Ocean Eng., 71, 28–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.02.003, 2013. a
Buchanan, M. K., Oppenheimer, M., and Kopp, R. E.: Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 064009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb3, 2017. a
Coles, S.: An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values, Springer, 1st Edn., 208 pp., ISBN 1852334592, 2001. a, b, c, d
de Vries, H., Breton, M., de Mulder, T., Krestenitis, Y., Ozer, J., Proctor, R., Ruddick, K., Salomon, J. C., and Voorrips, A.: A comparison of 2D storm surge models applied to three shallow European seas, Environ. Softw., 10, 23–42, https://doi.org/10.1016/0266-9838(95)00003-4, 1995. a
Dixon, M. J., Tawn, J. A., and Vassie, J. M.: Spatial modelling of extreme sea-levels, Environmetrics, 9, 283–301, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-095X(199805/06)9:3<283::AID-ENV304>3.0.CO;2-#, 1998. a
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Short summary
I show that two different statistical approaches to dealing with rare sea-level extremes caused by storm surges are not incompatible, despite their apparent differences. I suggest a context in which each approach is appropriate. I undertook this research because the two approaches might seem to be incompatible, a situation which I hope that this note helps to clarify. I applied various statistical tests which have appeared in recent literature to sea-level extremes from UK coastal sites.