Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-335-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-335-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Feb 2021
Research article |
| 18 Feb 2021
| 18 Feb 2021
Multidecadal polynya formation in a conceptual (box) model
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics,
Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
René M. van Westen
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics,
Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Henk A. Dijkstra
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics,
Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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We investigate the multiple equilibria window (MEW) of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a box model. We find that increasing the total carbon content of the system widens the MEW of the AMOC. The important mechanisms at play are the balance between the source and sink of carbon and the sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater forcing over the Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that changes in the marine carbon cycle can influence AMOC stability in future climates.
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André Jüling, Xun Zhang, Daniele Castellana, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
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Carine G. van der Boog, J. Otto Koetsier, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julie D. Pietrzak, and Caroline A. Katsman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 43–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-43-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-43-2021, 2021
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Thermohaline staircases are stepped structures in the ocean that contain enhanced diapycnal salt and heat transport. In this study, we present a global dataset of thermohaline staircases derived from 487 493 observations of Argo profiling floats and Ice-Tethered Profilers using a novel detection algorithm.
Michiel Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Michael A. Kliphuis, Peter K. Bijl, Appy Sluijs, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 16, 2573–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2573-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2573-2020, 2020
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Warm climates of the deep past have proven to be challenging to reconstruct with the same numerical models used for future predictions. We present results of CESM simulations for the middle to late Eocene (∼ 38 Ma), in which we managed to match the available indications of temperature well. With these results we can now look into regional features and the response to external changes to ultimately better understand the climate when it is in such a warm state.
René M. van Westen and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 16, 1443–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1443-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1443-2020, 2020
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David Wichmann, Christian Kehl, Henk A. Dijkstra, and Erik van Sebille
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 501–518, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-501-2020, 2020
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René M. van Westen and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-33, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-33, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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In 2016 and 2017, an open-water area emerged within the Antarctic sea-ice pack, the so-called Maud Rise polynya. The opening of the sea ice has been linked to intense winter storms. In this study, we investigate another important contributor to polynya formation by analysing subsurface static instabilities. These static instabilities initiate subsurface convection near Maud Rise. We conclude that apart from winter storms, subsurface convection plays an important role in polynya formation.
Ann Kristin Klose, René M. van Westen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 16, 435–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-435-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-435-2020, 2020
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We give an explanation of the decadal timescale path variations in the Kuroshio Current in the North Pacific based on highly detailed climate
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Carine G. van der Boog, Julie D. Pietrzak, Henk A. Dijkstra, Nils Brüggemann, René M. van Westen, Rebecca K. James, Tjeerd J. Bouma, Riccardo E. M. Riva, D. Cornelis Slobbe, Roland Klees, Marcel Zijlema, and Caroline A. Katsman
Ocean Sci., 15, 1419–1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1419-2019, 2019
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We use a model of the Caribbean Sea to study how coastal upwelling along Venezuela impacts the evolution of energetic anticyclonic eddies. We show that the anticyclones grow by the advection of the cold upwelling filaments. These filaments increase the density gradient and vertical shear of the anticyclones. Furthermore, we show that stronger upwelling results in stronger eddies, while model simulations with weaker upwelling contain weaker eddies.
Henk A. Dijkstra
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 359–369, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-359-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-359-2019, 2019
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I provide a personal view on the role of bifurcation analysis of climate models in the development of a theory of variability in the climate system. By outlining the state of the art of the methodology and by discussing what has been done and what has been learned from a hierarchy of models, I will argue that there are low-order phenomena of climate variability, such as El Niño and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
Juan-Manuel Sayol, Henk Dijkstra, and Caroline Katsman
Ocean Sci., 15, 1033–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1033-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1033-2019, 2019
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Koen G. Helwegen, Claudia E. Wieners, Jason E. Frank, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 453–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-453-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-453-2019, 2019
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We use the climate-economy model DICE to perform a cost–benefit analysis of sulfate geoengineering, i.e. producing a thin artificial sulfate haze in the higher atmosphere to reflect some sunlight and cool the Earth.
We find that geoengineering can increase future welfare by reducing global warming, and should be taken seriously as a policy option, but it can only complement, not replace, carbon emission reduction. The best policy is to combine CO2 emission reduction with modest geoengineering.
Martijn Westhoff, Axel Kleidon, Stan Schymanski, Benjamin Dewals, Femke Nijsse, Maik Renner, Henk Dijkstra, Hisashi Ozawa, Hubert Savenije, Han Dolman, Antoon Meesters, and Erwin Zehe
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-6, 2019
Publication in ESD not foreseen
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Even models relying on physical laws have parameters that need to be measured or estimated. Thermodynamic optimality principles potentially offer a way to reduce the number of estimated parameters by stating that a system evolves to an optimum state. These principles have been applied successfully within the Earth system, but it is often unclear what to optimize and how. In this review paper we identify commonalities between different successful applications as well as some doubtful applications.
Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, 2018
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We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
Matthias Aengenheyster, Qing Yi Feng, Frederick van der Ploeg, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1085–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018, 2018
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We determine the point of no return (PNR) for climate change, which is the latest year to take action to reduce greenhouse gases to stay, with a certain probability, within thresholds set by the Paris Agreement. For a 67 % probability and a 2 K threshold, the PNR is the year 2035 when the share of renewable energy rises by 2 % per year. We show the impact on the PNR of the speed by which emissions are cut, the risk tolerance, climate uncertainties and the potential for negative emissions.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018, 2018
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State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of
emergent constraintsuses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
Peter D. Nooteboom, Qing Yi Feng, Cristóbal López, Emilio Hernández-García, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 969–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-969-2018, 2018
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The prediction of the El Niño phenomenon, an increased sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific, fascinates people for a long time. El Niño is associated with natural disasters, such as droughts and floods. Current methods can make a reliable prediction of this phenomenon up to 6 months ahead. However, this article presents a method which combines network theory and machine learning which predicts El Niño up to 1 year ahead.
Michiel Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Michael A. Kliphuis, Peter K. Bijl, Appy Sluijs, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-43, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The Eocene marks a period where the climate was in a hothouse state, without any continental-scale ice sheets. Such climates have proven difficult to reproduce in models, especially their low temperature difference between equator and poles. Here, we present high resolution CESM simulations using a new geographic reconstruction of the middle-to-late Eocene. The results provide new insights into a period for which knowledge is limited, leading up to a transition into the present icehouse state.
Inti Pelupessy, Ben van Werkhoven, Arjen van Elteren, Jan Viebahn, Adam Candy, Simon Portegies Zwart, and Henk Dijkstra
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3167–3187, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3167-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3167-2017, 2017
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Researchers from the Netherlands present OMUSE, a software package
developed from core technology originating in the astrophysical
community. Using OMUSE, oceanographic and climate researchers can
develop numerical models of the ocean and the interactions between
different parts of the ocean and the atmosphere. This provides a novel
way to investigate, for example, the local effects of climate change on
the ocean. OMUSE is freely available as open-source software.
Brenda C. van Zalinge, Qing Yi Feng, Matthias Aengenheyster, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 707–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-707-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-707-2017, 2017
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The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) is one of the main causes for the increase in global mean surface temperature. There is no good quantitative measure to determine when it is
too lateto start reducing GHGs in order to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference. We develop a method for determining a so-called point of no return (PNR) for several GHG emission scenarios. The innovative element in this approach is the applicability to high-dimensional climate models.
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
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In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
S.-E. Brunnabend, H. A. Dijkstra, M. A. Kliphuis, H. E. Bal, F. Seinstra, B. van Werkhoven, J. Maassen, and M. van Meersbergen
Ocean Sci., 13, 47–60, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-47-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-47-2017, 2017
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An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a strongly eddying version of the Parallel Ocean Program. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways.
Michiel Baatsen, Douwe J. J. van Hinsbergen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Appy Sluijs, Hemmo A. Abels, and Peter K. Bijl
Clim. Past, 12, 1635–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1635-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1635-2016, 2016
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One of the major difficulties in modelling palaeoclimate is constricting the boundary conditions, causing significant discrepancies between different studies. Here, a new method is presented to automate much of the process of generating the necessary geographical reconstructions. The latter can be made using various rotational frameworks and topography/bathymetry input, allowing for easy inter-comparisons and the incorporation of the latest insights from geoscientific research.
Zun Yin, Stefan C. Dekker, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Biogeosciences, 13, 3343–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3343-2016, 2016
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Bimodality is found in aboveground biomass and mean annual shortwave radiation in West Africa, which is a strong evidence of alternative stable states. The condition with low biomass and low radiation is demonstrated under which ecosystem state can shift between savanna and forest states. Moreover, climatic indicators have different prediction confidences to different land cover types. A new method is proposed to predict potential land cover change with a combination of climatic indicators.
Qing Yi Feng, Ruggero Vasile, Marc Segond, Avi Gozolchiani, Yang Wang, Markus Abel, Shilomo Havlin, Armin Bunde, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2015-273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2015-273, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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We present the toolbox ClimateLearn to tackle problems in climate prediction using machine learning techniques and climate network analysis. Because spatial temporal information on climate variability can be efficiently represented by complex network measures, such data are considered here as input to the machine-learning algorithms. As an example, the toolbox is applied to the prediction of the occurrence and the development of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific.
H. Ihshaish, A. Tantet, J. C. M. Dijkzeul, and H. A. Dijkstra
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3321–3331, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3321-2015, 2015
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Par@Graph, a software toolbox to reconstruct and analyze large-scale complex climate networks. It exposes parallelism on distributed-memory computing platforms to enable the construction of massive networks from large number of time series based on the calculation of common statistical similarity measures between them. Providing additionally parallel graph algorithms to enable fast calculation of important and common properties of the generated networks on SMP machines.
L. Hahn-Woernle, H. A. Dijkstra, and H. J. Van der Woerd
Ocean Sci., 10, 993–1011, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-993-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-993-2014, 2014
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Measured vertical mixing profiles are applied to a 1-D phytoplankton model. Results show that shifts in vertical mixing are able to induce a transition from an upper chlorophyll maximum to a deep one and vice versa. Furthermore, a clear correlation between the surface phytoplankton concentration and mixing-induced nutrient flux is found for nutrient-limited cases. This result suggests that characteristics of the vertical mixing could be determined from the surface phytoplankton concentration.
S.-E. Brunnabend, H. A. Dijkstra, M. A. Kliphuis, B. van Werkhoven, H. E. Bal, F. Seinstra, J. Maassen, and M. van Meersbergen
Ocean Sci., 10, 881–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-881-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-881-2014, 2014
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Regional sea surface height (SSH) changes due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated with a high- and low-resolution model. A rapid decrease of the AMOC in the high-resolution version induces shorter return times of several specific regional and coastal extremes in North Atlantic SSH than in the low-resolution version. This effect is caused by a change in main eddy pathways associated with a change in separation latitude of the Gulf Stream.
Z. Yin, S. C. Dekker, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and H. A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 257–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-257-2014, 2014
D. Le Bars, J. V. Durgadoo, H. A. Dijkstra, A. Biastoch, and W. P. M. De Ruijter
Ocean Sci., 10, 601–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-601-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-601-2014, 2014
Z. Yin, S. C. Dekker, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and H. A. Dijkstra
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 821–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-821-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-821-2014, 2014
G. Sgubin, S. Pierini, and H. A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 10, 201–213, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-201-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-201-2014, 2014
A. Tantet and H. A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-1-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-1-2014, 2014
A. A. Cimatoribus, S. Drijfhout, and H. A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-10-2461-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-10-2461-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
A. S. von der Heydt, A. Nnafie, and H. A. Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 7, 903–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-903-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-903-2011, 2011
M. Tigchelaar, A. S. von der Heydt, and H. A. Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 7, 235–247, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-235-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-235-2011, 2011
J. O. Sewall, R. S. W. van de Wal, K. van der Zwan, C. van Oosterhout, H. A. Dijkstra, and C. R. Scotese
Clim. Past, 3, 647–657, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-647-2007, 2007
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Short summary
The Maud Rise polynya is a hole in the sea ice surrounding Antarctica that occurs during winter. It appeared in 2016 and 2017. Our study concludes that heat and salt accumulation around 1000 m depth are likely to be important for polynya formation. The heat is mixed upward to the surface where it is able to melt the sea ice and, thus, create a polynya. How often the polynya forms depends largely on the variation in the time of the heat and salt accumulation.
The Maud Rise polynya is a hole in the sea ice surrounding Antarctica that occurs during winter....
