Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Feb 2021
Research article |
| 15 Feb 2021
| 15 Feb 2021
A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline
Emma L. Worthington
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Ben I. Moat
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
David A. Smeed
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Jennifer V. Mecking
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Robert Marsh
University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Gerard D. McCarthy
ICARUS, Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Co. Kildare, Ireland
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Cited
37 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model R. van Westen et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3
- North Atlantic Oscillation contributes to the subpolar North Atlantic cooling in the past century Y. Fan et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06847-y
- Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society T. Stocker et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09844-w
- Thirty Years of GOSHIP and WOCE Data: Atlantic Overturning of Mass, Heat, and Freshwater Transport V. Caínzos et al. 10.1029/2021GL096527
- Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits C. Piecuch & L. Beal 10.1029/2023GL105170
- Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean S. Lee et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00727-3
- Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate to tropical Indian Ocean warming B. Ferster et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05813-w
- On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models D. Swingedouw et al. 10.1111/nyas.14659
- Wind-driven and buoyancy-driven circulation in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean H. Bryden 10.1098/rspa.2021.0172
- Evolution characteristics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its thermodynamic and dynamic effects on surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere H. Wang et al. 10.1007/s11430-022-1102-y
- Mass, Heat, and Freshwater Transport From Transoceanic Sections in the Atlantic Ocean at 30°S and 24.5°N: Single Sections Versus Box Models? V. Caínzos et al. 10.1029/2023GL103412
- The evolution of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1980 L. Jackson et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00263-2
- Machine Learning‐Derived Inference of the Meridional Overturning Circulation From Satellite‐Observable Variables in an Ocean State Estimate A. Solodoch et al. 10.1029/2022MS003370
- Reply to: Atlantic circulation change still uncertain L. Caesar et al. 10.1038/s41561-022-00897-3
- Exceptional freshening and cooling in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic caused by reduced Labrador Sea surface heat loss A. Fox et al. 10.5194/os-18-1507-2022
- Century-long cooling trend in subpolar North Atlantic forced by atmosphere: an alternative explanation L. Li et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-06003-4
- Meridional Connectivity of a 25‐Year Observational AMOC Record at 47°N S. Wett et al. 10.1029/2023GL103284
- AMOC Recent and Future Trends: A Crucial Role for Oceanic Resolution and Greenland Melting? D. Swingedouw et al. 10.3389/fclim.2022.838310
- Projected Atlantic overturning slow-down is to be compensated by a strengthened South Atlantic subtropical gyre F. Marcello et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00750-4
- A new conceptual model of global ocean heat uptake J. Gregory et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06989-z
- A quantitative assessment of air–sea heat flux trends from ERA5 since 1950 in the North Atlantic basin J. Mayer et al. 10.5194/esd-14-1085-2023
- Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state D. Volkov et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-51879-5
- Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction S. Michel et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3
- New insights into the eastern subpolar North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from OVIDE H. Mercier et al. 10.5194/os-20-779-2024
- Asymmetry of AMOC Hysteresis in a State‐Of‐The‐Art Global Climate Model R. van Westen & H. Dijkstra 10.1029/2023GL106088
- The role of conceptual models in climate research H. Dijkstra 10.1016/j.physd.2023.133984
- Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course R. van Westen et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
- Can we trust projections of AMOC weakening based on climate models that cannot reproduce the past? G. McCarthy & L. Caesar 10.1098/rsta.2022.0193
- Observed change and the extent of coherence in the Gulf Stream system H. Asbjørnsen et al. 10.5194/os-20-799-2024
- Impacts of a weakened AMOC on precipitation over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model K. Bellomo et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2
- Mechanism of the Centennial Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Trend in the FGOALS‐g2 Historical Simulation Y. Fan et al. 10.1029/2021JC017511
- Anthropogenic Carbon Transport Variability in the Atlantic Ocean Over Three Decades V. Caínzos et al. 10.1029/2022GB007475
- The Iceland–Faroe warm-water flow towards the Arctic estimated from satellite altimetry and in situ observations B. Hansen et al. 10.5194/os-19-1225-2023
- Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport R. van Westen & H. Dijkstra 10.5194/os-20-549-2024
- Transports and Pathways of the Tropical AMOC Return Flow From Argo Data and Shipboard Velocity Measurements F. Tuchen et al. 10.1029/2021JC018115
- Shifts from surface density compensation to projected warming, freshening and stronger stratification in the subpolar North Atlantic R. Marsh et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07336-6
- Air quality improvements are projected to weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through radiative forcing effects T. Hassan et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00476-9
37 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model R. van Westen et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3
- North Atlantic Oscillation contributes to the subpolar North Atlantic cooling in the past century Y. Fan et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06847-y
- Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society T. Stocker et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09844-w
- Thirty Years of GOSHIP and WOCE Data: Atlantic Overturning of Mass, Heat, and Freshwater Transport V. Caínzos et al. 10.1029/2021GL096527
- Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits C. Piecuch & L. Beal 10.1029/2023GL105170
- Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean S. Lee et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00727-3
- Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate to tropical Indian Ocean warming B. Ferster et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05813-w
- On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models D. Swingedouw et al. 10.1111/nyas.14659
- Wind-driven and buoyancy-driven circulation in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean H. Bryden 10.1098/rspa.2021.0172
- Evolution characteristics of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its thermodynamic and dynamic effects on surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere H. Wang et al. 10.1007/s11430-022-1102-y
- Mass, Heat, and Freshwater Transport From Transoceanic Sections in the Atlantic Ocean at 30°S and 24.5°N: Single Sections Versus Box Models? V. Caínzos et al. 10.1029/2023GL103412
- The evolution of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1980 L. Jackson et al. 10.1038/s43017-022-00263-2
- Machine Learning‐Derived Inference of the Meridional Overturning Circulation From Satellite‐Observable Variables in an Ocean State Estimate A. Solodoch et al. 10.1029/2022MS003370
- Reply to: Atlantic circulation change still uncertain L. Caesar et al. 10.1038/s41561-022-00897-3
- Exceptional freshening and cooling in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic caused by reduced Labrador Sea surface heat loss A. Fox et al. 10.5194/os-18-1507-2022
- Century-long cooling trend in subpolar North Atlantic forced by atmosphere: an alternative explanation L. Li et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-06003-4
- Meridional Connectivity of a 25‐Year Observational AMOC Record at 47°N S. Wett et al. 10.1029/2023GL103284
- AMOC Recent and Future Trends: A Crucial Role for Oceanic Resolution and Greenland Melting? D. Swingedouw et al. 10.3389/fclim.2022.838310
- Projected Atlantic overturning slow-down is to be compensated by a strengthened South Atlantic subtropical gyre F. Marcello et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00750-4
- A new conceptual model of global ocean heat uptake J. Gregory et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06989-z
- A quantitative assessment of air–sea heat flux trends from ERA5 since 1950 in the North Atlantic basin J. Mayer et al. 10.5194/esd-14-1085-2023
- Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state D. Volkov et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-51879-5
- Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction S. Michel et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3
- New insights into the eastern subpolar North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from OVIDE H. Mercier et al. 10.5194/os-20-779-2024
- Asymmetry of AMOC Hysteresis in a State‐Of‐The‐Art Global Climate Model R. van Westen & H. Dijkstra 10.1029/2023GL106088
- The role of conceptual models in climate research H. Dijkstra 10.1016/j.physd.2023.133984
- Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course R. van Westen et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
- Can we trust projections of AMOC weakening based on climate models that cannot reproduce the past? G. McCarthy & L. Caesar 10.1098/rsta.2022.0193
- Observed change and the extent of coherence in the Gulf Stream system H. Asbjørnsen et al. 10.5194/os-20-799-2024
- Impacts of a weakened AMOC on precipitation over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model K. Bellomo et al. 10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2
- Mechanism of the Centennial Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Trend in the FGOALS‐g2 Historical Simulation Y. Fan et al. 10.1029/2021JC017511
- Anthropogenic Carbon Transport Variability in the Atlantic Ocean Over Three Decades V. Caínzos et al. 10.1029/2022GB007475
- The Iceland–Faroe warm-water flow towards the Arctic estimated from satellite altimetry and in situ observations B. Hansen et al. 10.5194/os-19-1225-2023
- Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport R. van Westen & H. Dijkstra 10.5194/os-20-549-2024
- Transports and Pathways of the Tropical AMOC Return Flow From Argo Data and Shipboard Velocity Measurements F. Tuchen et al. 10.1029/2021JC018115
- Shifts from surface density compensation to projected warming, freshening and stronger stratification in the subpolar North Atlantic R. Marsh et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07336-6
- Air quality improvements are projected to weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through radiative forcing effects T. Hassan et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00476-9
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
Short summary
The RAPID array has observed the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004, but the AMOC was directly calculated only five times from 1957–2004. Here we create a statistical regression model from RAPID data, relating AMOC changes to density changes within the different water masses at 26° N, and apply it to historical hydrographic data. The resulting 1981–2016 record shows that the AMOC from 2008–2012 was its weakest since the mid-1980s, but it shows no overall decline.
The RAPID array has observed the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004,...
