Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Research article
23 Jul 2020
Research article |  | 23 Jul 2020

Pending recovery in the strength of the meridional overturning circulation at 26° N

Ben I. Moat, David A. Smeed, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Damien G. Desbruyères, Claudie Beaulieu, William E. Johns, Darren Rayner, Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, Molly O. Baringer, Denis Volkov, Laura C. Jackson, and Harry L. Bryden

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Cited articles

Barber, D. C., Dyke, A., Hillaire-Marcel, C., Jennings, A. E., Andrews, J. T., Kerwin, M. W., Bilodeau, F., McNeely, R., Southon, J., Morehead, M. D., and Gagnon, J.-M.: Forcing of the cold event of 8,200 years ago by catastrophic drainage of Laurentide lakes, Nature, 400, 344–348,, 1999. 
Beaulieu, C. and Killick, R.: Distinguishing trends and shifts from memory in climate data Distinguishing trends and shifts from memory in climate data, J. Climate, 31, 9519–9543,, 2018. 
Blockley, E. W., Martin, M. J., McLaren, A. J., Ryan, A. G., Waters, J., Lea, D. J., Mirouze, I., Peterson, K. A., Sellar, A., and Storkey, D.: Recent development of the Met Office operational ocean forecasting system: an overview and assessment of the new Global FOAM forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2613–2638,, 2014. 
Bower, A. S., Lozier M. S., Gary S. F., and Böning C. W.,: Interior pathways of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nature, 459, 243–247,, 2009. 
Bryden, H. L., Johns, W. E., King, B. A., McCarthy, G. A., McDonagh, E. L., Moat, B. I., and Smeed, D. A..: Reduction in ocean heat transport at 26 N since 2008 cools the eastern subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean, J. Climate, 33, 1677–1689,, 2020. 
Short summary
The RAPID 26° N array has been measuring the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004. Since 2009 the AMOC has, compared with previous years, been in a low state. In 2013–2015, in the northern North Atlantic, strong cooling was observed in the ocean and anticipated to intensify the strength of the AMOC some years later. Here, we analyse the latest results from 26° N and conclude that while the AMOC has increased since 2009, this increase is not statistically significant.