Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1491-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1491-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Dec 2020
Research article |
| 03 Dec 2020
| 03 Dec 2020
Model uncertainties of a storm and their influence on microplastics and sediment transport in the Baltic Sea
Robert Daniel Osinski
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
Kristina Enders
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
Ulf Gräwe
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
Knut Klingbeil
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
Hagen Radtke
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
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Anju Mallissery, Hagen Radtke, Thomas Neumann, and H.E. Markus Meier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4568, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
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We used a computer model to study how warming affects biological and chemical processes in the Baltic Sea and controls nutrient cycling in its deep basins. We tested changes across the sea and only along the coast. In oxygen-poor waters, a small increase in the processes caused ammonium buildup and enhanced nitrogen removal. In the Bothnian Sea, the coastal zone had an outsized role, sometimes 2 to 4 times greater than basin-wide changes, altering nitrate, phosphate, and productivity.
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, 2025
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This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches, and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Florian Börgel, Sven Karsten, Karoline Rummel, and Ulf Gräwe
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2005-2025, 2025
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Forecasting river runoff, which is crucial for managing water resources and understanding climate impacts, can be challenging. This study introduces a new method using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks, a machine learning model that processes spatial and temporal data. Focusing on the Baltic Sea region, our model uses weather data as input to predict daily river runoff for 97 rivers.
Tridib Banerjee, Patrick Scholz, Sergey Danilov, Knut Klingbeil, and Dmitry Sidorenko
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7051–7065, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7051-2024, 2024
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In this paper we propose a new alternative to one of the functionalities of the sea ice model FESOM2. The alternative we propose allows the model to capture and simulate fast changes in quantities like sea surface elevation more accurately. We also demonstrate that the new alternative is faster and more adept at taking advantages of highly parallelized computing infrastructure. We therefore show that this new alternative is a great addition to the sea ice model FESOM2.
Sven Karsten, Hagen Radtke, Matthias Gröger, Ha T. M. Ho-Hagemann, Hossein Mashayekh, Thomas Neumann, and H. E. Markus Meier
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1689–1708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1689-2024, 2024
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This paper describes the development of a regional Earth System Model for the Baltic Sea region. In contrast to conventional coupling approaches, the presented model includes a flux calculator operating on a common exchange grid. This approach automatically ensures a locally consistent treatment of fluxes and simplifies the exchange of model components. The presented model can be used for various scientific questions, such as studies of natural variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions.
Marvin Lorenz and Ulf Gräwe
Ocean Sci., 19, 1753–1771, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1753-2023, 2023
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We study the variability of extreme sea levels in a 13 member hindcast ensemble for the Baltic Sea. The ensemble mean shows good agreement with observations regarding return levels and trends. However, we find great variability and uncertainty within the ensemble. We argue that the variability of storms in the atmospheric data directly translates into the variability of the return levels. These results highlight the need for large regional ensembles to minimise uncertainties.
Jurjen Rooze, Heewon Jung, and Hagen Radtke
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7107–7121, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7107-2023, 2023
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Chemical particles in nature have properties such as age or reactivity. Distributions can describe the properties of chemical concentrations. In nature, they are affected by mixing processes, such as chemical diffusion, burrowing animals, and bottom trawling. We derive equations for simulating the effect of mixing on central moments that describe the distributions. We then demonstrate applications in which these equations are used to model continua in disturbed natural environments.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
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Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Bronwyn E. Cahill, Piotr Kowalczuk, Lena Kritten, Ulf Gräwe, John Wilkin, and Jürgen Fischer
Biogeosciences, 20, 2743–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2743-2023, 2023
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We quantify the impact of optically significant water constituents on surface heating rates and thermal energy fluxes in the western Baltic Sea. During productive months in 2018 (April to September) we found that the combined effect of coloured
dissolved organic matter and particulate absorption contributes to sea surface heating of between 0.4 and 0.9 K m−1 d−1 and a mean loss of heat (ca. 5 W m−2) from the sea to the atmosphere. This may be important for regional heat balance budgets.
Pia Kolb, Anna Zorndt, Hans Burchard, Ulf Gräwe, and Frank Kösters
Ocean Sci., 18, 1725–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1725-2022, 2022
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River engineering measures greatly changed tidal dynamics in the Weser estuary. We studied the effect on saltwater intrusion with numerical models. Our analysis shows that a deepening of the navigation channel causes saltwater to intrude further into the Weser estuary. This effect is mostly masked by the natural variability of river discharge. In our study, it proved essential to recalibrate individual hindcast models due to differences in sediments, bed forms, and underlying bathymetric data.
Matthias Gröger, Manja Placke, H. E. Markus Meier, Florian Börgel, Sandra-Esther Brunnabend, Cyril Dutheil, Ulf Gräwe, Magnus Hieronymus, Thomas Neumann, Hagen Radtke, Semjon Schimanke, Jian Su, and Germo Väli
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8613–8638, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8613-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8613-2022, 2022
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Comparisons of oceanographic climate data from different models often suffer from different model setups, forcing fields, and output of variables. This paper provides a protocol to harmonize these elements to set up multidecadal simulations for the Baltic Sea, a marginal sea in Europe. First results are shown from six different model simulations from four different model platforms. Topical studies for upwelling, marine heat waves, and stratification are also assessed.
Thomas Neumann, Hagen Radtke, Bronwyn Cahill, Martin Schmidt, and Gregor Rehder
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8473–8540, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8473-2022, 2022
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Marine ecosystem models are usually constrained by the elements nitrogen and phosphorus and consider carbon in organic matter in a fixed ratio. Recent observations show a substantial deviation from the simulated carbon cycle variables. In this study, we present a marine ecosystem model for the Baltic Sea which allows for a flexible uptake ratio for carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. With this extension, the model reflects much more reasonable variables of the marine carbon cycle.
Vera Fofonova, Tuomas Kärnä, Knut Klingbeil, Alexey Androsov, Ivan Kuznetsov, Dmitry Sidorenko, Sergey Danilov, Hans Burchard, and Karen Helen Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6945–6975, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6945-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6945-2021, 2021
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We present a test case of river plume spreading to evaluate coastal ocean models. Our test case reveals the level of numerical mixing (due to parameterizations used and numerical treatment of processes in the model) and the ability of models to reproduce complex dynamics. The major result of our comparative study is that accuracy in reproducing the analytical solution depends less on the type of applied model architecture or numerical grid than it does on the type of advection scheme.
Jens Daniel Müller, Bernd Schneider, Ulf Gräwe, Peer Fietzek, Marcus Bo Wallin, Anna Rutgersson, Norbert Wasmund, Siegfried Krüger, and Gregor Rehder
Biogeosciences, 18, 4889–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4889-2021, 2021
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Based on profiling pCO2 measurements from a field campaign, we quantify the biomass production of a cyanobacteria bloom in the Baltic Sea, the export of which would foster deep water deoxygenation. We further demonstrate how this biomass production can be accurately reconstructed from long-term surface measurements made on cargo vessels in combination with modelled temperature profiles. This approach enables a better understanding of a severe concern for the Baltic’s good environmental status.
Tobias Peter Bauer, Peter Holtermann, Bernd Heinold, Hagen Radtke, Oswald Knoth, and Knut Klingbeil
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4843–4863, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4843-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4843-2021, 2021
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We present the coupled atmosphere–ocean model system ICONGETM. The added value and potential of using the latest coupling technologies are discussed in detail. An exchange grid handles the different coastlines from the unstructured atmosphere and the structured ocean grids. Due to a high level of automated processing, ICONGETM requires only minimal user input. The application to a coastal upwelling scenario demonstrates significantly improved model results compared to uncoupled simulations.
Qing Li, Jorn Bruggeman, Hans Burchard, Knut Klingbeil, Lars Umlauf, and Karsten Bolding
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4261–4282, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4261-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4261-2021, 2021
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Different ocean vertical mixing schemes are usually developed in different modeling framework, making the comparison across such schemes difficult. Here, we develop a consistent framework for testing, comparing, and applying different ocean mixing schemes by integrating CVMix into GOTM, which also extends the capability of GOTM towards including the effects of ocean surface waves. A suite of test cases and toolsets for developing and evaluating ocean mixing schemes is also described.
Erik Jacobs, Henry C. Bittig, Ulf Gräwe, Carolyn A. Graves, Michael Glockzin, Jens D. Müller, Bernd Schneider, and Gregor Rehder
Biogeosciences, 18, 2679–2709, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2679-2021, 2021
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We use a unique data set of 8 years of continuous carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) surface water measurements from a commercial ferry to study upwelling in the Baltic Sea. Its seasonality and regional and interannual variability are examined. Strong upwelling events drastically increase local surface CO2 and CH4 levels and are mostly detected in late summer after long periods of impaired mixing. We introduce an extrapolation method to estimate regional upwelling-induced trace gas fluxes.
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Short summary
This study investigates the impact of the uncertainty in atmospheric data of a storm event on the transport of microplastics and sediments. The model chain includes the WRF atmospheric model, the WAVEWATCH III® wave model, and the GETM regional ocean model as well as a sediment transport model based on the FABM framework. An ensemble approach based on stochastic perturbations of the WRF model is used. We found a strong impact of atmospheric uncertainty on the amount of transported material.
This study investigates the impact of the uncertainty in atmospheric data of a storm event on...
