Received: 19 Dec 2016 – Accepted for review: 16 Jan 2017 – Discussion started: 03 Feb 2017
Abstract. The prediction of extreme storm surges is a critical task for coastal area protection. This study examines extreme storm surges in Beibu Bay, a semi-enclosed bay in the South China Sea, and their joint probabilities. A method for the advanced prediction of the extreme storm surges is proposed using a multivariate extreme statistical method. We further present practical guidelines of the proposed multivariate analysis method, including guidelines for simulation. The simulation can be extended to multidimensional data to simplify computation, so the proposed approach can be extended to use more points' data from the semi-enclosed bay for predicting extreme storm surges probabilities. A practical case study illustrates the application of the proposed techniques for extreme storm surges prediction. A comparison of the conditional probabilities obtained from observations and simulation data show that the proposed method is effective.
How to cite. Luo, Y., Shi, H., and Wang, D.: Multivariate analysis of extreme storm surges in a semi-enclosed bay, Ocean Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2016-94, 2017.
South China Sea is a hardest-hit area of typhoon, and there are server typhoons in Beibu Bay. Satellite data and ocean model are effective method now. But this will need lots of social resources. Our method is a feasible and economical method. Now lots of hydrological stations have long surge data in china. According to these history data, we can get an extreme surge relationship between two or more stations. Combining front stations data and the relationship, we can make advanced prediction.
South China Sea is a hardest-hit area of typhoon, and there are server typhoons in Beibu Bay....