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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">OSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Ocean Science Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">OSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Ocean Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1812-0822</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/os-2016-94</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Multivariate analysis of extreme storm surges in a semi-enclosed bay</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Luo</surname>
<given-names>Yao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Shi</surname>
<given-names>Hui</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Dongxiao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>China Water Resources Pearl River Planning Surveying &amp; Designing Co., Ltd., China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>03</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2017</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2017</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>18</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2017 Yao Luo et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2017</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://os.copernicus.org/preprints/os-2016-94/">This article is available from https://os.copernicus.org/preprints/os-2016-94/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://os.copernicus.org/preprints/os-2016-94/os-2016-94.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://os.copernicus.org/preprints/os-2016-94/os-2016-94.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The prediction of extreme storm surges is a critical task for coastal area protection. This study examines extreme storm surges in Beibu Bay, a semi-enclosed bay in the South China Sea, and their joint probabilities. A method for the advanced prediction of the extreme storm surges is proposed using a multivariate extreme statistical method. We further present practical guidelines of the proposed multivariate analysis method, including guidelines for simulation. The simulation can be extended to multidimensional data to simplify computation, so the proposed approach can be extended to use more points&apos; data from the semi-enclosed bay for predicting extreme storm surges probabilities. A practical case study illustrates the application of the proposed techniques for extreme storm surges prediction. A comparison of the conditional probabilities obtained from observations and simulation data show that the proposed method is effective.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="18"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source></funding-source>
<award-id>131551KYSB20160002</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
</back>
</article>