Articles | Volume 21, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2743-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2743-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
03 Nov 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 03 Nov 2025
| 03 Nov 2025
Estimates of Atlantic meridional heat transport from spatiotemporal fusion of Argo, altimetry, and gravimetry data
Francisco M. Calafat
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Physics Department, University of the Balearic Islands, 07122 Palma, Spain
Marine Physics and Ocean Climate, National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Parvathi Vallivattathillam
Marine Physics and Ocean Climate, National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK
Eleanor Frajka-Williams
Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Related authors
Victor Rousseau, Robin Fraudeau, Matthew Hammond, Odilon Joël Houndegnonto, Michaël Ablain, Alejandro Blazquez, Fransisco Mir Calafat, Damien Desbruyères, Giuseppe Foti, William Llovel, Florence Marti, Benoît Meyssignac, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-236, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of regional Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is crucial for climate analysis and future climate predictions. In our study, we accurately estimate regional OHC changes in the Atlantic Ocean using satellite and in situ data. Findings reveal significant warming in the Atlantic basin from 2002 to 2020 with a mean trend of 0.17W/m², representing 230 times the power of global nuclear plants. The product has also been successfully validated in the North Atlantic basin using in situ data.
Elodie Duyck, Nicholas P. Foukal, and Eleanor Frajka-Williams
Ocean Sci., 21, 241–260, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-241-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-241-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses drifters – instruments that follow surface ocean currents – to investigate the pathways of Arctic origin waters that enter the North Atlantic west of Greenland. It shows that these waters remain close to the coast as they flow over the Labrador shelf and only spread into the open ocean south of the Labrador Sea. These results contribute to better understanding how the North Atlantic will be affected by additional freshwater from Greenland and the Arctic in the coming decades.
Victor Rousseau, Robin Fraudeau, Matthew Hammond, Odilon Joël Houndegnonto, Michaël Ablain, Alejandro Blazquez, Fransisco Mir Calafat, Damien Desbruyères, Giuseppe Foti, William Llovel, Florence Marti, Benoît Meyssignac, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2023-236, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of regional Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is crucial for climate analysis and future climate predictions. In our study, we accurately estimate regional OHC changes in the Atlantic Ocean using satellite and in situ data. Findings reveal significant warming in the Atlantic basin from 2002 to 2020 with a mean trend of 0.17W/m², representing 230 times the power of global nuclear plants. The product has also been successfully validated in the North Atlantic basin using in situ data.
Cited articles
Anderson, T. W. and Darling, D. A.: A test of goodness of fit, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 49, 765–769, https://doi.org/10.2307/2281537, 1954.
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Paynter, D., Silvers, L. G., Zhou, C., Mauritsen, T., Webb, M. J., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., and Titchner, H.: Accounting for Changing Temperature Patterns Increases Historical Estimates of Climate Sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 8490–8499, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078887, 2018.
Ballarotta, M., Ubelmann, C., Pujol, M.-I., Taburet, G., Fournier, F., Legeais, J.-F., Faugère, Y., Delepoulle, A., Chelton, D., Dibarboure, G., and Picot, N.: On the resolutions of ocean altimetry maps, Ocean Sci., 15, 1091–1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1091-2019, 2019.
Banerjee, S., Carlin, B. P., and Gelfand, A. E.: Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data, in: 2nd Edn., Chapman & Hall, London, UK, https://doi.org/10.1201/b17115, 2014.
Blazquez, A., Meyssignac, B., Lemoine, J. M., Berthier, E., Ribes, A., and Cazenave, A.: Exploring the uncertainty in GRACE estimates of the mass redistributions at the Earth surface: implications for the global water and sea level budgets, Geophys. J. Int., 215, 415–430, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy293, 2018.
Buckley, M. W. and Marshall, J.: Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review, Rev. Geophys., 54, 5–63, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015RG000493, 2016.
Calafat, F. M., Frederikse, T., and Horsburgh, K.: The sources of sea-level changes in the Mediterranean Sea since 1960, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 127, e2022JC019061, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC019061, 2022.
Calafat, F. M., Vallivattathillam, P., and Frajka-Williams, E.: Estimates of Atlantic meridional heat transport from spatiotemporal fusion of Argo, altimetry and GRACE data, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16640426, Zenodo [data set], 2025.
Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y., Mann, M. E., Reseghetti, F., Simoncelli, S., Gouretski, V., Chen, G., Mishonov, A., Reagan, J., and Zhu, J.: Upper Ocean Temperatures Hit Record High in 2020, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 38, 523–530, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x, 2021.
Copernicus Marine Service: Global Ocean Gridded L4 Sea Surface Heights And Derived Variables Reprocessed Copernicus Climate Service, Copernicus Marine Service Information (CMEMS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00145, 2024.
Cressie, N. and Wikle, C. K.: Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data, John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 9780471692744, 2011.
Cunningham, S. A., Kanzow, T., Rayner, D., Baringer, M. O., Johns, W. E., Marotzke, J., Longworth, H. R., Grant, E. M., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Beal, L. M., Meinen, C. S., and Bryden, H. L.: Temporal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26° N, Science, 317, 935–938, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1141304, 2007.
Dieng, H. B., Palanisamy, H., Cazenave, A., Meyssignac, B., and von Schuckmann, K.: The sea level budget since 2003: Inference on the Deep Ocean Heat content, Surv. Geophys., 36, 209–229, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-015-9314-6, 2015.
Dong, Y., Proistosescu, C., Armour, K. C., and Battisti, D. S.: Attributing historical and future evolution of radiative feedbacks to regional warming patterns using a Green's Function approach: The preeminence of the western Pacific, J. Climate, 32, 5471–5491, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0843.1, 2019.
Evans, D. G., Toole, J., Forget, G., Zika, J. D., Naveira Garabato, A. C., Nurser, A. J. G., and Yu, L.: Recent wind-driven variability in Atlantic water mass distribution and Meridional Overturning Circulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 47, 633–647, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-16-0089.1, 2017.
Frajka-Williams, E., Ansorge, I. J., Baehr, J., Bryden, H. L., Paz Chidichimo, M., Cunningham, S. A., Danabasoglu, G., Dong, S., Donohue, K. A., Elipot, S., Heimbach, P., Holliday, N. P., Hummels, R., Jackson, L. C., Karstensen, J., Lankhorst, M., Le Bras, I. A., Lozier, M. S., McDonagh, E. L., Meinen, C. S., Mercier, H., Moat, B. I., Perez, R. C., Piecuch, C. G., Rhein, M., Srokosz, M. A., Trenberth, K. E., Bacon, S., Forget, G., Goni, G., Kieke, D., Koelling, J., Lamont, T., McCarthy, G. D., Mertens, C., Send, U., Smeed, D. A., Speich, S., van den Berg, M., Volkov, D., and Wilson, C.: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: Observed transport and variability, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 260, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00260, 2019.
Frederikse, T., Riva, R. E. M., and King, M. A.: Ocean Bottom Deformation Due To Present-Day Mass Redistribution and Its Impact on Sea Level Observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 12306–12314, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075419, 2017.
Frederikse, T., Landerer, F., Caron, L., Adhikari, S., Parkes, D., Humphrey, V. W., Dangendorf, S., Hogarth, P., Zanna, L., Cheng, L., and Wu, Y.-H.: The causes of sea-level rise since 1900, Nature, 584, 393–397, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2591-3, 2020.
Gaillard, F., Reynaud, T., Thierry, V., Kolodziejczyk, N., and von Schuckmann, K.: In-situ based reanalysis of the global ocean temperature and salinity with ISAS: variability of the heat content and steric height, J. Climate, 29, 1305–1323, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0028.1, 2016.
Gelfand, A. E., Zhu, L., and Carlin, B. P.: On the change of support problem for spatio-temporal data, Biostatistics, 2, 31–45, https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/2.1.31, 2001.
Gelfand, A. E., Schmidt, A. M., Banerjee, S., and Sirmans, C.: Nonstationary multivariate process modeling through spatially varying coregionalization, Test, 13, 263–312, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02595775, 2004.
Gelman, A. and Rubin, D. B.: Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences, Stat. Sci., 7, 457–72, https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177011136, 1992.
Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A., and Rubin, D. B.: Bayesian Data Analysis, in: 3rd Edn., Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, https://doi.org/10.1201/b16018, 2014.
Gill, A. E. and Niiler, P. P.: The theory of the seasonal variability of the ocean, Deep-Sea Res., 20, 141–177, https://doi.org/10.1016/0011-7471(73)90049-1, 1973.
Good, S. A., Martin, M. J., and Rayner, N. A.: EN4: quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009067, 2013.
Gotway, C. A. and Young, L. J.: Combining incompatible spatial data, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 97, 632–648, https://doi.org/10.1198/016214502760047140, 2002.
Gregory, J. M., Griffies, S. M., Hughes, C. W., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., Fukimori, I., Gomez, N., Kopp, R. E., Landerer, F., Cozannet, G. L., Ponte, R. M., Stammer, D., Tamisiea, M. E., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global, Surv. Geophys., 40, 1251–1289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z, 2019.
Hakuba, M. Z., Frederikse, T., and Landerer, F. W.: Earth's energy imbalance from the ocean perspective (2005–2019), Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL093624, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093624, 2021.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023.
Jackson, L. C., Biastoch, A., Buckley, M. W., Desbruyères, D. G., Frajka-Williams, E., Moat, B., and Robson, J.: The evolution of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation since 1980, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, 241–254, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00263-2, 2022.
Johns, W. E., Baringer, M. O., Beal, L. M., Cunningham, S. A., Kanzow, T., Bryden, H. L., Hirschi, J. J. M., Marotzke, J., Meinen, C. S., Shaw, B., and Curry, R.: Continuous, array-based estimates of Atlantic Ocean heat transport at 26.5° N, J. Climate, 24, 2429–2449, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3997.1, 2011.
Johns, W., Elipot, S., Smeed, D., Moat, B., King, B., Volkov, D., and Smith, R.: Towards two decades of Atlantic Ocean mass and heat transports at 26.5° N, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 381, 20220188, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0188, 2023a.
Johns, W. E., Elipot, S., Smeed, D. A., Moat, B., King, B., Volkov, D. L., and Smith, R. H.: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Heat Transport Time Series between April 2004 and December 2020 at 26.5°N (v.2020), University of Miami Libraries [data set], https://doi.org/10.17604/3nfq-va20, 2023b.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
Kelly, K. A., Thompson, L., and Lyman, J.: The coherence and impact of meridional heat transport anomalies in the Atlantic ocean inferred from observations, J. Climate, 27, 1469–1487, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00131.1, 2014.
Kelly, K. A., Drushka, K., Thompson, L., Le Bars, D., and McDonagh, E. L.: Impact of slowdown of Atlantic overturning circulation on heat and freshwater transports, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7625–7631, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069789, 2016.
Kolodziejczyk, N., Prigent-Mazella, A., and Gaillard, F.: ISAS temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen gridded fields, SEANOE [data set], https://doi.org/10.17882/52367, 2023.
Li, F., Lozier, M. S., Holliday, N. P., Johns, W. E., Le Bras, I. A., Moat, B. I., Cunningham, S. A., and de Jong, M. F.: Observation-based estimates of heat and freshwater exchanges from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Arctic, Prog. Oceanogr., 197, 102640, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102640, 2021a.
Li, F., Lozier, M.S., Bacon, S., Bower, A., Cunningham, S.A., de Jong, M.F., DeYoung, B., Fraser, N., Fried, N., Han, G., Holliday, N.P., Holte, J., Houpert, L., Inall, M.E., Johns, W.E., Jones, S., Johnson, C., Karstensen, J., LeBras, I.A., Lherminier, P., Lin, X., Mercier, H., Oltmanns, M., Pacini, A., Petit, T., Pickart, R.S., Rayner, D., Straneo, F., Thierry, V., Visbeck, M., Yashayaev I., and Zhou C.: Meridional Heat and Salinity Transports and Surface Freshwater Exchange Derived from the OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) Array between August 2014 and May 2018, Georgia Tech Library [data set], https://doi.org/10.35090/8hqw-c147, 2021b.
Liu, C., Allan, R. P., Mayer, M., Hyder, P., Desbruyères, D., Cheng, L., Xu, J., Xu, F., and Zhang, Y.: Variability in the global energy budget and transports 1985–2017, Clim. Dynam., 55, 3381–3396, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05451-8, 2020.
Liu, C., Yang, Y., Liao, X., Cao, N., Liu, J., Ou, N., Allan, R. P., Jin, L., Chen, N., and Zheng, R.: Discrepancies in simulated ocean net surface heat fluxes over the North Atlantic, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1941–1955, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1360-7, 2022.
Loeb, N. G., Doelling, D. R., Wang, H., Su, W., Nguyen, C., Corbett, J. G., Liang, L., Mitrescu, C., Rose, F. G., and Kato, S.: Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) energy balanced and filled (EBAF) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) Edition 4.0 data product, J. Climate, 31, 895–918, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0208.1, 2018.
Loomis, B. D., Luthcke, S. B., and Sabaka, T. J.: Regularization and error characterization of GRACE mascons, J. Geod., 93, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-019-01252-y, 2019.
Lowe, J. A. and Gregory, J. M.: Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, C11014, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003421, 2006.
Lozier, M. S., Li, F., Bacon, S., Bahr, F., Bower, A. S., Cunningham, S. A., de Jong, M. F., de Steur, L., deYoung, B., Fischer, J., Gary, S. F., Greenan, B. J. W., Holliday, N. P., Houk, A., Houpert, L., Inall, M. E., Johns, W. E., Johnson, H. L., Johnson, C., Karstensen, J., Koman, G., le Bras, I. A., Lin, X., Mackay, N., Marshall, D. P., Mercier, H., Oltmanns, M., Pickart, R. S., Ramsey, A. L., Rayner, D., Straneo, F., Thierry, V., Torres, D. J., Williams, R. G., Wilson, C., Yang, J., Yashayaev, I., and Zhao, J.: A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic, Science, 363, 516–521, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau6592, 2019.
Maes, C.: Estimating the influence of salinity on sea level anomaly in the ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3551–3554, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL02758, 1998.
Marti, F., Blazquez, A., Meyssignac, B., Ablain, M., Barnoud, A., Fraudeau, R., Jugier, R., Chenal, J., Larnicol, G., Pfeffer, J., Restano, M., and Benveniste, J.: Monitoring the ocean heat content change and the Earth energy imbalance from space altimetry and space gravimetry, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 229—249, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-229-2022, 2022.
Mayer, J., Mayer, M., and Haimberger, L.: Mass-consistent atmospheric energy and moisture budget monthly data from 1979 to present derived from ERA5 reanalysis, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.c2451f6b, 2021.
Mayer, J., Mayer, M., Haimberger, L., and Liu, C.: Comparison of surface energy fluxes from global to local scale, J. Climate, 35, 4551–4569, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0598.1, 2022.
McCarthy, G. D., Smeed, D. A., Johns, W. E., Frajka-Williams, E., Moat, B. I., Rayner, D., Baringer, M. O., Meinen, C. S., Collins, J., and Bryden, H. L.: Measuring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26° N, Prog. Oceanogr., 130, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.10.006, 2015.
Meyssignac, B., Boyer, T., Zhao, Z., Hakuba, M. Z., Landerer, F. W., Stammer, D., Köhl, A., Kato, S., L'Ecuyer, T., Ablain, M., Abraham, J. P., Blazquez, A., Cazenave, A., Church, J. A., Cowley, R., Cheng, L., Domingues, C. M., Giglio, D., Gouretski, V., Ishii, M., Johnson, G. C., Killick, R. E., Legler, D., Llovel, W., Lyman, J., Palmer, M. D., Piotrowicz, S., Purkey, S. G., Roemmich, D., Roca, R., Savita, A., von Schuckmann, K., Speich, S., Stephens, G., Wang, G., Wijffels, S. E., and Zilberman, N.: Measuring Global Ocean Heat Content to Estimate the Earth Energy Imbalance, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 432, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00432, 2019.
Meyssignac, B., Fourest, S., Mayer, M., Johnson, G. C., Calafat, F. M., Ablain, M., Boyer, T., Cheng. L., Desbruyères, D., Forget, G., Giglio, D., Kuusela, M., Locarnini, R., Lyman, J. M., Llovel, W., Mishonov, A., Reagan, J., Rousseau, V., and Benveniste, J.: North Atlantic Heat Transport Convergence Derived from a Regional Energy Budget Using Different Ocean Heat Content Estimates, Surv. Geophys., https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09865-5, 2024.
Phan, D., Pradhan, N., and Jankowiak, M.: Composable effects for flexible and accelerated probabilistic programming in NumPyro, arXiv [preprint], arXiv:1912.11554, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1912.11554, 2019.
Piecuch, C. G., Huybers, P., Hay, C. C., Kemp, A. C., Little, C. M., Mitrovica, J. X., Ponte, R. M., and Tingley, M. P.: Origin of spatial variation in US East Coast sea-level trends during 1900–2017, Nature, 564, 400–404, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0787-6, 2018.
Piecuch, C. G. and Beal, L. M.: Robust weakening of the Gulf Stream during the past four decades observed in the Florida Straits, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105170, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105170, 2023.
Prandi, P., Meyssignac, B., Ablain, M., Spada, G., and Ribes, A.: Error variance-covariance, trends, accelerations and uncertainties of regional mean sea level estimated from satellite altimetry, SEANOE [data set], https://doi.org/10.17882/74862, 2020.
Prandi, P., Meyssignac, B., Ablain, M., Spada, G., Ribes, A., and Benveniste, J.: Local sea level trends, accelerations and uncertainties over 1993–2019, Sci. Data, 8, 1, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-00786-7, 2021.
Roberts, C. D., Palmer, M. D., Allan, R. P., Desbruyeres, D. G., Hyder, P., Liu, C., and Smith, D.: Surface flux and ocean heat transport convergence contributions to seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 122, 726–744, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC012278, 2017.
Srokosz, M., Danabasoglu, G., and Patterson, M.: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: Reviews of observational and modeling advances – An introduction, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 126, e2020JC016745, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016745, 2021.
Tapley, B. D., Watkins, M. M., Flechtner, F., Reigber, C., Bettadpur, S., Rodell, M., Sasgen, I., Famiglietti, J. S., Landerer, F. W., Chambers, D. P., Reager, J. T., Gardner, A. S., Save, H., Ivins, E. R., Swenson, S. C., Boening, C., Dahle, C., Wiese, D. N., Dobslaw, H., Tamisiea, M. E., and Velicogna, I.: Contributions of GRACE to understanding climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 358–369, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0456-2, 2019.
Trenberth, K. E. and Fasullo, J. T.: Atlantic meridional heat transports computed from balancing Earth's energy locally, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 1919–1927, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072475, 2017.
Trenberth, K. E., Zhang, Y., Fasullo, J. T., and Cheng, L.: Observation-based estimate of global and basin ocean meridional heat transport time series, J. Climate, 32, 4567–4583, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0872.1, 2019.
Volkov, D. L., Smith, R. H., Garcia, R. F. Smeed, D. A., Moat, B. I., Johns, W. E., and Baringer, M. O.: Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state, Nat. Commun., 15, 7780, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51879-5, 2024.
von Schuckmann, K., Cheng, L., Palmer, M. D., Hansen, J., Tassone, C., Aich, V., Adusumilli, S., Beltrami, H., Boyer, T., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., Desbruyères, D., Domingues, C., García-García, A., Gentine, P., Gilson, J., Gorfer, M., Haimberger, L., Ishii, M., Johnson, G. C., Killick, R., King, B. A., Kirchengast, G., Kolodziejczyk, N., Lyman, J., Marzeion, B., Mayer, M., Monier, M., Monselesan, D. P., Purkey, S., Roemmich, D., Schweiger, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Shepherd, A., Slater, D. A., Steiner, A. K., Straneo, F., Timmermans, M.-L., and Wijffels, S. E.: Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020.
Wang, G., Cheng, L., Boyer, T., and Li, C.: Halosteric Sea Level Changes during the Argo Era, Water, 9, 484, https://doi.org/10.3390/w9070484, 2017.
Wong, A. P., Wijffels, S. E., Riser, S. C., Pouliquen, S., Hosoda, S., Roemmich, D., Gilson, J., Johnson, G. C., Martini, K., Murphy, D. J., Scanderbeg, M., Bhaskar, T. V., Buck, J. J., Merceur, F., Carval, T., Maze, G., Cabanes, C., André, X., Poffa, N., Yashayaev, I., Barker, P. M., Guinehut, S., Belbéoch, M., Ignaszewski, M., Baringer, M. O., Schmid, C., Lyman, J. M., McTaggart, Kr. E., Purkey, S. G., Zilberman, N., Alkire, M. B., Swift, D., Owens, W. B., Hersh, C., Robbins, P., West-Mack, D., Bahr, F., Yoshida, S., Sutton, P. J., Cancouët, R., Coatanoan, C., Dobbler, D., Juan, A. G., Gourrion, J., Kolodziejczyk, N., Bernard, V., Bourlès, B., Claustre, H., D'Ortenzio, F., Le Reste, S., Le Traon, P. Y., Rannou, J. P., Saout-Grit, C., Speich, S., Thierry, V., Verbrugge, N., Angel-Benavides, I. M., Klein, B., Notarstefano, G., Poulain, P. M., Vélez-Belchí, P., Suga, T., Ando, K., Iwasaska, N., Kobayashi, T., Masuda, S., Oka, E., Sato, K., Nakamura, T., Takatsuki, Y., Yoshida, T., Cowley, R., Lovell, J. L., Oke, P. R., van Wijk, E. M., Carse, F., Donnelly, M., Gould, W. J., Gowers, K., King, B. A., Loch, S. G., Mowat, M., Turton, J., Rama Rao, E. P., Ravichandran, M., Freeland, H. J., Gaboury, I., Gilbert, D., Greenan, B. J., Ouellet, M., Ross, T., Tran, A., Dong, M., Liu, Z., Xu, Jia., Kang, K., Jo, H., Kim, S., and Park, H.: Argo Data 1999–2019: Two Million Temperature-Salinity Profiles and Subsurface Velocity Observations From a Global Array of Profiling Floats, Front. Mar. Sci., 7, 700, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00700, 2020.
Woollings, T., Gregory, J. M., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Brayshaw, D. J.: Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling, Nat. Geosci., 5, 313–317, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1438, 2012.
Yin, J. and Zhao, M.: Influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the U.S. extreme cold weather, Commun. Earth. Environ., 2, 218, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00290-9, 2021.
Zammit-Mangion, A., Rougier, J., Bamber, J., and Schön, N.: Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework, Environmetrics, 25, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2247, 2014.
Zammit-Mangion, A., Rougier, J., Schön, N., Lindgren, F., and Bamber, J.: Multivariate spatio-temporal modelling for assessing Antarctica's present-day contribution to sea-level rise, Environmetrics, 26, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2323, 2015.
Zhang, R., Sutton, R., Danabasoglu, G., Kwon, Y.-O., Marsh, R., Yeager, S. G., Amrhein, D. E., and Little, C. M.: A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts, Rev. Geophys., 57, 316–375, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000644, 2019.
Co-editor-in-chief
The study introduces an innovative method for estimating meridional heat transport (MHT) across latitudes. By combining diverse oceanographic approaches, including remote sensing (gravimetry, altimetry), in-situ observations, and advanced statistical modeling, the study bridges several domains of ocean science. It opens the door for things such as an improved estimation of ocean heat content, surface fluxes, sea level variability, currents and enhanced error characterization in satellite observations. The new method could serve as the foundation for alternative estimates of both MHT and the Atlantic Meriodional Circulation (AMOC) that do not depend on costly, geographically limited in-situ observing arrays, which is especially beneficial if it allows the AMOC to be observed across a range of latitudes.
The study introduces an innovative method for estimating meridional heat transport (MHT) across...
Short summary
Understanding how heat moves through the ocean is crucial to predicting future climate change confidently. This requires accurate records of heat transport throughout the ocean, but these are challenging to obtain by direct ocean observation. Here, we combine in situ and satellite-based observations to generate estimates of meridional heat transport for the period 2004–2020 at 3-month resolution across the Atlantic Ocean with improved accuracy compared to existing indirectly inferred estimates.
Understanding how heat moves through the ocean is crucial to predicting future climate change...
