Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-941-2023
Research article
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28 Jun 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 28 Jun 2023

Dense water formation in the eastern Mediterranean under a global warming scenario

Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Dimitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo

Data sets

ROM model data for Eastern Mediterranean Dense Water Formation Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Rubén Vázquez, William Cabos, Dimitry V. Sein, Oscar Álvarez, Miguel Bruno, and Alfredo Izquierdo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7594313

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Co-editor-in-chief
This research predicts the potential future of the Eastern Mediterranean's circulation under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, using a coupled regional climate system model and a global oceanic model. The study predicts a significant decrease in dense water formation, a key process in Mediterranean overturning circulation, by up to 84% in the Adriatic, Aegean, and Levantine seas by the end of the century. This study forecasts a shift in the main source of Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water from the Adriatic Sea to the Aegean Sea. These changes, related to increased vertical stratification that hinders vertical mixing and convection, fill a crucial gap in our understanding of how climate change could reshape the Mediterranean Sea's dynamics.
Short summary
Global warming may strongly affect dense water formation in the eastern Mediterranean, potentially impacting basin circulation and water properties. We find that at the end of the century dense water formation is reduced by 75 % for the Adriatic, 84 % for the Aegean, and 83 % for the Levantine Sea. This reduction is caused by changes in the temperature and salinity of surface and intermediate waters, which strengthen the vertical stratification, hampering deep convection.