Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1595-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
22 Nov 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 22 Nov 2023
| 22 Nov 2023
Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario
Pierre Mathiot
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP/INRAE, Institut des Geosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
Nicolas C. Jourdain
Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP/INRAE, Institut des Geosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, France
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Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
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The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
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Some recent studies show that the topography at the base of an ice shelf has consequences for its interaction with the ocean. To describe friction velocity in the melt parameterisation, we use a drag coefficient dependent on the distance of the first wet cell to the ice and the basal topography rather than a fixed-tuned parameter. We find that it is less dependent on the choice of vertical resolution and, while providing similar total melt, it gives more weight to highly crevassed areas.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, 2026
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How the Antarctic ice sheet responds to rapid ocean warming remains uncertain. To explore this, we used a coupled ocean–ice sheet model. We compared simulations under present-day conditions with simulations under strong future warming for 50 years, then returned to today’s climate. The ocean warmed quickly but recovered within decades. In contrast, several ice streams continued to retreat for centuries. This shows that even brief warming could cause lasting ice loss and sea-level rise.
Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, Christoph Kittel, Achille Gellens, Cécile Agosta, and Nicolas C. Jourdain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6314, 2026
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Since numerical computing is expensive, climate models must decide between having a high spatial resolution or running for long time periods. Here, we develop a simple neural network to emulate small-scale processes occurring beneath Antarctic ice shelves, which allows sub-shelf melt and ice-ocean interactions to be included in global ocean models which can run for multiple centuries. This neural network will help us to understand how ocean circulation may change in the future.
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The Cryosphere, 20, 135–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, 2026
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Icebergs ground when they reach shallow topography such as Bear Ridge in the Amundsen Sea. Grounded icebergs can block the transport of sea-ice and create areas of higher and lower sea-ice concentration. We introduce a physically and observationally motivated representation of grounding in an ocean model. In addition, we improve the way simulated icebergs respond to winds, ocean currents, and density differences in sea water. We analyse the forces acting on freely floating and grounded icebergs.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
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Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
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Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
David Storkey, Pierre Mathiot, Michael J. Bell, Dan Copsey, Catherine Guiavarc'h, Helene T. Hewitt, Jeff Ridley, and Malcolm J. Roberts
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The Southern Ocean is a key region of the world ocean in the context of climate change studies. We show that the Met Office Hadley Centre coupled model with intermediate ocean resolution struggles to accurately simulate the Southern Ocean. Increasing the frictional drag that the seafloor exerts on ocean currents and introducing a representation of unresolved ocean eddies both appear to reduce the large-scale biases in this model.
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
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Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
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Bottom Water constitutes the lower half of the ocean’s overturning system and is primarily formed in the Weddell and Ross Sea in the Antarctic due to interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and ice shelves. Here we use a global ocean 1° resolution model with explicit representation of the three large ice shelves important for the formation of the parent waters of Bottom Water. We find doing so reduces salt biases, improves water mass realism and gives realistic ice shelf melt rates.
Jeff Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Gennadi Lessin, Claudia Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valérie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clément Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1481–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, 2023
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The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples, highlighting key considerations that will the expedite development cycle and upskill the user community.
Clara Burgard, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ronja Reese, Adrian Jenkins, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022
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The ocean-induced melt at the base of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica is one of the largest uncertainty factors in the Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise. We assess the performance of several existing parameterisations in simulating basal melt rates on a circum-Antarctic scale, using an ocean simulation resolving the cavities below the shelves as our reference. We find that the simple quadratic slope-independent and plume parameterisations yield the best compromise.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
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The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
Claire K. Yung, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Alistair Adcroft, Christopher Y. S. Bull, Jan De Rydt, Michael S. Dinniman, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Daniel Goldberg, David E. Gwyther, Robert Hallberg, Matthew Harrison, Tore Hattermann, David M. Holland, Denise Holland, Paul R. Holland, James R. Jordan, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Kazuya Kusahara, Gustavo Marques, Pierre Mathiot, Dimitris Menemenlis, Adele K. Morrison, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Olga Sergienko, Robin S. Smith, Alon Stern, Ralph Timmermann, and Qin Zhou
The Cryosphere, 20, 2053–2088, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026, 2026
Short summary
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The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.
Dorothée Vallot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 20, 1997–2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1997-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1997-2026, 2026
Short summary
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Some recent studies show that the topography at the base of an ice shelf has consequences for its interaction with the ocean. To describe friction velocity in the melt parameterisation, we use a drag coefficient dependent on the distance of the first wet cell to the ice and the basal topography rather than a fixed-tuned parameter. We find that it is less dependent on the choice of vertical resolution and, while providing similar total melt, it gives more weight to highly crevassed areas.
Pierre Mathiot, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Benoit Urruty, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Olivier Gagliardini, and Gaël Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-927, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
Short summary
Short summary
How the Antarctic ice sheet responds to rapid ocean warming remains uncertain. To explore this, we used a coupled ocean–ice sheet model. We compared simulations under present-day conditions with simulations under strong future warming for 50 years, then returned to today’s climate. The ocean warmed quickly but recovered within decades. In contrast, several ice streams continued to retreat for centuries. This shows that even brief warming could cause lasting ice loss and sea-level rise.
Helen Ockenden, Clara Burgard, Pierre Mathiot, Christoph Kittel, Achille Gellens, Cécile Agosta, and Nicolas C. Jourdain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6314, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Short summary
Short summary
Since numerical computing is expensive, climate models must decide between having a high spatial resolution or running for long time periods. Here, we develop a simple neural network to emulate small-scale processes occurring beneath Antarctic ice shelves, which allows sub-shelf melt and ice-ocean interactions to be included in global ocean models which can run for multiple centuries. This neural network will help us to understand how ocean circulation may change in the future.
Benjamin Heurgue, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, Fredrik Boberg, Gaël Durand, Vincent Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Quentin Glaude, Heiko Goelzer, Nicolaj Hansen, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ruth Mottram, Martin Olesen, Willem Jan Van de Berg, Michiel R. Van den Broeke, and René R. Wijngaard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-624, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).
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We studied how the Antarctic ice sheet surface mass balance may change by 2100 using three high-resolution climate models forced by the same future climate scenario. While the models agree for present-day conditions, they project very different futures, especially over floating ice shelves. These differences mainly come from how melting, refreezing, and temperature are represented. Our results show that future sea level projections strongly depend on how well models simulate today’s climate.
Yavor Kostov, Paul R. Holland, Kelly A. Hogan, James A. Smith, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew H. Fleming, and Andrew J. S. Meijers
The Cryosphere, 20, 135–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-135-2026, 2026
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Icebergs ground when they reach shallow topography such as Bear Ridge in the Amundsen Sea. Grounded icebergs can block the transport of sea-ice and create areas of higher and lower sea-ice concentration. We introduce a physically and observationally motivated representation of grounding in an ocean model. In addition, we improve the way simulated icebergs respond to winds, ocean currents, and density differences in sea water. We analyse the forces acting on freely floating and grounded icebergs.
Gavin A. Schmidt, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Jonathan L. Bamber, Clara Burgard, Dustin Carroll, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Benjamin J. Davison, Matthew H. England, Paul R. Holland, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Qian Li, Juliana M. Marson, Pierre Mathiot, Clive R. McMahon, Twila A. Moon, Ruth Mottram, Sophie Nowicki, Anna Olivé Abelló, Andrew G. Pauling, Thomas Rackow, and Damien Ringeisen
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8333–8361, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8333-2025, 2025
Short summary
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The impact of increasing mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has not so far been included in historical climate model simulations. This paper describes the protocols and data available for modeling groups to add this anomalous freshwater to their ocean modules to better represent the impacts of these fluxes on ocean circulation, sea ice, salinity and sea level.
Johanna Beckmann, Ronja Reese, Felicity S. McCormack, Sue Cook, Lawrence Bird, Dawid Gwyther, Daniel Richards, Matthias Scheiter, Yu Wang, Hélène Seroussi, Ayako Abe‐Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Jorge Alvarez‐Solas, Xylar S. Asay‐Davis, Jean‐Baptiste Barre, Constantijn J. Berends, Jorge Bernales, Javier Blasco, Justine Caillet, David M. Chandler, Violaine Coulon, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi, Julius Garbe, Fabien Gillet‐Chaulet, Rupert Gladstone, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Holly Kyeore Han, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ann Kristin Klose, Petra M. Langebroek, Gunter R. Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel P. Lowry, Pierre Mathiot, Marisa Montoya, Mathieu Morlighem, Sophie Nowicki, Frank Pattyn, Antony J. Payne, Tyler Pelle, Aurélien Quiquet, Alexander Robinson, Leopekka Saraste, Erika G. Simon, Sainan Sun, Jake P. Twarog, Luke D. Trusel, Benoit Urruty, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Chen Zhao, and Thomas Zwinger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4069, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Antarctica holds enough ice to raise sea levels by many meters, but its future is uncertain. Warm ocean water melts ice shelves from below, letting inland ice flow faster into the sea. By 2300, Antarctica could add 0.6–4.4 m to sea levels. Our study identifies two key factors—how strongly shelves melt and how the ice responds. These explain much of the range, and refining them in models may improve future predictions.
Jonathan Wiskandt and Nicolas C. Jourdain
The Cryosphere, 19, 3253–3258, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3253-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3253-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In ocean models, submarine melt of ice shelves is parameterized based on the heat budget at the ice–ocean interface. The heat budget includes the ocean heat transport, the heat conducted into the ice, and the heat available for melting. Here we compare three different approaches to estimating the heat conduction into the ice. We show that the most used approximation is not the most accurate one: it overestimates the melt by up to 25 % compared to the more accurate approximations.
Cyrille Mosbeux, Peter Råback, Adrien Gilbert, Julien Brondex, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Mondher Chekki, Olivier Gagliardini, and Gaël Durand
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3039, 2025
Short summary
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Transport processes like rocks carried by ice flow and damage evolution – a proxy for crevasses – are key in ice sheet modeling and should occur without diffusion. Yet, standard numerical methods often blur these features. We explore a particle-based Semi-Lagrangian approach, comparing it to a Discontinuous Galerkin method, and show it can accurately simulate such transport when run at high enough resolution.
David Storkey, Pierre Mathiot, Michael J. Bell, Dan Copsey, Catherine Guiavarc'h, Helene T. Hewitt, Jeff Ridley, and Malcolm J. Roberts
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2725–2745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean is a key region of the world ocean in the context of climate change studies. We show that the Met Office Hadley Centre coupled model with intermediate ocean resolution struggles to accurately simulate the Southern Ocean. Increasing the frictional drag that the seafloor exerts on ocean currents and introducing a representation of unresolved ocean eddies both appear to reduce the large-scale biases in this model.
Nicolas C. Jourdain, Charles Amory, Christoph Kittel, and Gaël Durand
The Cryosphere, 19, 1641–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-1641-2025, 2025
Short summary
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A mixed statistical–physical approach is used to reproduce the behaviour of a regional climate model. From that, we estimate the contribution of snowfall and melting at the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in global mean sea level. We also investigate the impact of surface melting in a warmer climate on the stability of the Antarctic ice shelves that provide back stress on the ice flow to the ocean.
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Internal climate variability, resulting from processes intrinsic to the climate system, modulates the Antarctic response to climate change by delaying or offsetting its effects. Using climate and ice-sheet models, we highlight that irreducible internal climate variability significantly enlarges the likely range of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise until 2100. Thus, we recommend considering internal climate variability as a source of uncertainty for future ice-sheet projections.
Catherine Guiavarc'h, David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Ed Blockley, Alex Megann, Helene Hewitt, Michael J. Bell, Daley Calvert, Dan Copsey, Bablu Sinha, Sophia Moreton, Pierre Mathiot, and Bo An
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 377–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is the new UK hierarchy of model configurations based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and available at three resolutions. It will be used for various applications, e.g. weather forecasting and climate prediction. It improves upon the previous version by reducing global temperature and salinity biases and enhancing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.
Jan De Rydt, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Yoshihiro Nakayama, Mathias van Caspel, Ralph Timmermann, Pierre Mathiot, Xylar S. Asay-Davis, Hélène Seroussi, Pierre Dutrieux, Ben Galton-Fenzi, David Holland, and Ronja Reese
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7105–7139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7105-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global climate models do not reliably simulate sea-level change due to ice-sheet–ocean interactions. We propose a community modelling effort to conduct a series of well-defined experiments to compare models with observations and study how models respond to a range of perturbations in climate and ice-sheet geometry. The second Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project will continue to lay the groundwork for including ice-sheet–ocean interactions in global-scale IPCC-class models.
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
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Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
Katherine Hutchinson, Julie Deshayes, Christian Éthé, Clément Rousset, Casimir de Lavergne, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicolas C. Jourdain, and Pierre Mathiot
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3629–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3629-2023, 2023
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Bottom Water constitutes the lower half of the ocean’s overturning system and is primarily formed in the Weddell and Ross Sea in the Antarctic due to interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and ice shelves. Here we use a global ocean 1° resolution model with explicit representation of the three large ice shelves important for the formation of the parent waters of Bottom Water. We find doing so reduces salt biases, improves water mass realism and gives realistic ice shelf melt rates.
Jeff Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Gennadi Lessin, Claudia Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valérie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clément Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1481–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, 2023
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The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples, highlighting key considerations that will the expedite development cycle and upskill the user community.
Clara Burgard, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ronja Reese, Adrian Jenkins, and Pierre Mathiot
The Cryosphere, 16, 4931–4975, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4931-2022, 2022
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The ocean-induced melt at the base of the floating ice shelves around Antarctica is one of the largest uncertainty factors in the Antarctic contribution to future sea-level rise. We assess the performance of several existing parameterisations in simulating basal melt rates on a circum-Antarctic scale, using an ocean simulation resolving the cavities below the shelves as our reference. We find that the simple quadratic slope-independent and plume parameterisations yield the best compromise.
Antony Siahaan, Robin S. Smith, Paul R. Holland, Adrian Jenkins, Jonathan M. Gregory, Victoria Lee, Pierre Mathiot, Antony J. Payne, Jeff K. Ridley, and Colin G. Jones
The Cryosphere, 16, 4053–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4053-2022, 2022
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The UK Earth System Model is the first to fully include interactions of the atmosphere and ocean with the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Under the low-greenhouse-gas SSP1–1.9 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) scenario, the ice sheet remains stable over the 21st century. Under the strong-greenhouse-gas SSP5–8.5 scenario, the model predicts strong increases in melting of large ice shelves and snow accumulation on the surface. The dominance of accumulation leads to a sea level fall at the end of the century.
Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Stefan Hofer, Cécile Agosta, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Ella Gilbert, Louis Le Toumelin, Étienne Vignon, Hubert Gallée, and Xavier Fettweis
The Cryosphere, 16, 2655–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2655-2022, 2022
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Model projections suggest large differences in future Antarctic surface melting even for similar greenhouse gas scenarios and warming rates. We show that clouds containing a larger amount of liquid water lead to stronger melt. As surface melt can trigger the collapse of the ice shelves (the safety band of the Antarctic Ice Sheet), clouds could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of sea level rise.
Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, François Klein, Sébastien Le clec'h, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Pierre Mathiot, Ehsan Moravveji, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Pablo Ortega, Frank Pattyn, Niels Souverijns, Guillian Van Achter, Sam Vanden Broucke, Alexander Vanhulle, Deborah Verfaillie, and Lars Zipf
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 553–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-553-2022, 2022
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We present PARASO, a circumpolar model for simulating the Antarctic climate. PARASO features five distinct models, each covering different Earth system subcomponents (ice sheet, atmosphere, land, sea ice, ocean). In this technical article, we describe how this tool has been developed, with a focus on the
coupling interfacesrepresenting the feedbacks between the distinct models used for contribution. PARASO is stable and ready to use but is still characterized by significant biases.
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Editorial statement
Future climate of the Antarctic is a topic of concern to scientists and to the general public, and has implications for global sea level rise. This paper uses an ocean model driven by high-end atmospheric conditions plausible by late 23rd century to highlight what might happen to the Antarctic ice and its surrounding ocean if our emissions of CO2 continue to rise in an extreme way. The model suggests that the future Antarctic continental shelf would be more like the present day Amundsen Sea – warmer and fresher. This would lead to substantial increases in ice shelf melt rates.
Future climate of the Antarctic is a topic of concern to scientists and to the general public,...
Short summary
How much the Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rate can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. To achieve this, we compared an ocean simulation under present-day atmospheric condition to a one under late 23rd century atmospheric conditions. The ocean response to the perturbation includes a decrease in the production of cold dense water and an increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates.
How much the Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rate can increase in response to global warming...
