Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
Research article
 | Highlight paper
22 Nov 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 22 Nov 2023

Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario

Pierre Mathiot and Nicolas C. Jourdain


Total article views: 1,809 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,438 323 48 1,809 53 34
  • HTML: 1,438
  • PDF: 323
  • XML: 48
  • Total: 1,809
  • BibTeX: 53
  • EndNote: 34
Views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jul 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jul 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,809 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,655 with geography defined and 154 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1


Latest update: 21 Apr 2024
Future climate of the Antarctic is a topic of concern to scientists and to the general public, and has implications for global sea level rise. This paper uses an ocean model driven by high-end atmospheric conditions plausible by late 23rd century to highlight what might happen to the Antarctic ice and its surrounding ocean if our emissions of CO2 continue to rise in an extreme way. The model suggests that the future Antarctic continental shelf would be more like the present day Amundsen Sea – warmer and fresher. This would lead to substantial increases in ice shelf melt rates.
Short summary
How much the Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rate can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. To achieve this, we compared an ocean simulation under present-day atmospheric condition to a one under late 23rd century atmospheric conditions. The ocean response to the perturbation includes a decrease in the production of cold dense water and an increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates.