Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1529-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1529-2023
Research article
 | 
07 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 07 Nov 2023

On the drivers of regime shifts in the Antarctic marginal seas, exemplified by the Weddell Sea

Verena Haid, Ralph Timmermann, Özgür Gürses, and Hartmut H. Hellmer

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Cited articles

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Bull, C. Y. S., Jenkins, A., Jourdain, N. C., Vankova, I., Holland, P. R., Mathiot, P., Hausmann, U., and Sallee, J.-B.: Remote control of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf melt rates by the Antarctic Slope Current, J. Geophys. Res., 126, e2020JC016550, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016550, 2021. a
Caillet, J., Jourdain, N. C., Mathiot, P., Hellmer, H. H., and Mouginot, J.: Drivers and reversibility of abrupt ocean state transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, Earth and Space Science Open Archive, p. 23, https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10511518.1, 2022. a
Collins, M., Booth, B. B. B., Bhaskaran, B., Harris, G. R., Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., and Webb, M. J.: Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles, Clim. Dynam., 36, 1737–1766, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0808-0, 2011. a
Comeau, D., Asay-Davis, X. S., Begeman, C. B., Hoffman, M. J., Lin, W., Petersen, M. R., Price, S. F., Roberts, A. F., Van Roekel, L. P., Veneziani, M., Wolfe, J. D., Fyke, J. G., Ringler, T. D., and Turner, A. K.: The DOE E3SM v1.2 Cryosphere Configuration: Description and Simulated Antarctic Ice-Shelf Basal Melting, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 14, e2021MS002468, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002468, 2022. a
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Recently, it was found that cold-to-warm changes in Antarctic shelf sea areas are possible and lead to higher ice shelf melt rates. In modelling experiments, we found that if the highest density in front of the ice shelf becomes lower than the density of the warmer water off-shelf at the deepest access to the shelf, the off-shelf water will flow onto the shelf. Our results also indicate that this change will offer some, although not much, resistance to reversal and constitutes a tipping point.