Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Oct 2023
Research article |
| 25 Oct 2023
| 25 Oct 2023
The Mediterranean Forecasting System – Part 1: Evolution and performance
Giovanni Coppini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Gianpiero Cossarini
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Stefano Salon
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Gerasimos Korres
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Michalis Ravdas
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Rita Lecci
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Jenny Pistoia
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Anna Chiara Goglio
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Massimiliano Drudi
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Alessandro Grandi
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Ali Aydogdu
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Romain Escudier
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Mercator Océan International, Toulouse, France
Andrea Cipollone
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Vladyslav Lyubartsev
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Antonio Mariani
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Sergio Cretì
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Francesco Palermo
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Matteo Scuro
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Simona Masina
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Nadia Pinardi
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce, Italy
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Antonio Navarra
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce, Italy
Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (BIGEA), Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Damiano Delrosso
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Bologna, Italy
Anna Teruzzi
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Valeria Di Biagio
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Giorgio Bolzon
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Laura Feudale
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Gianluca Coidessa
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Carolina Amadio
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Alberto Brosich
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Arnau Miró
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Eva Alvarez
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Paolo Lazzari
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Cosimo Solidoro
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Charikleia Oikonomou
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Anna Zacharioudaki
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
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Using the same sea surface temperature and the same bulk formula but different atmospheric reanalysis and analysis surface-variable datasets, we show that a higher-resolution dataset is crucial for evaluating the heat-budget closure hypothesis in the Mediterranean Sea. For the first time, we investigate the impact of extreme heat-loss events in the Mediterranean Sea by computing the long-term, basin-averaged mean heat budget.
Paolo Oddo, Mario Adani, Francesco Carere, Andrea Cipollone, Anna Chiara Goglio, Eric Jansen, Ali Aydogdu, Francesca Mele, Italo Epicoco, Jenny Pistoia, Emanuela Clementi, Nadia Pinardi, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 423–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-423-2026, 2026
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This study present a data assimilation system that combines ocean observational data with ocean model results to better understand the ocean and predict its future state. The method uses a three dimensional incremental variational approach focusing on the physical relationships between all the state vector variables errors. Testing in the Mediterranean Sea showed that a complex sea level operator based on a barotropic model works best.
Maher Bouzaiene, Antonio Guarnieri, Damiano Delrosso, Ahmad F. Dilmahamod, Simona Simoncelli, and Claudia Fratianni
Ocean Sci., 21, 2643–2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2643-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-2643-2025, 2025
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We analyze the geostrophic circulation and tidal effects in the Gulf of Gabès from 30 years of altimetry data (1993–2022) and the outputs of a high-resolution ocean model for the year 2022.
Carlos Enmanuel Soto López, Mirna Gharbi Dit Kacem, Fabio Anselmi, and Paolo Lazzari
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 7575–7602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7575-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-7575-2025, 2025
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We used a semi-analytical expression to estimate the concentration of optically active constituents, allowing us to have an interpretable formulation consistent with the laws of physics. We focused on a probabilistic approach, inverting the model with its respective uncertainty. Considering future applications to big data, we explored a neural-network-based method, retrieving computationally efficient estimates with an accuracy comparable to existing state-of-the-art algorithms.
Seimur Shirinov, Ivan Federico, Simone Bonamano, Salvatore Causio, Nicolás Biocca, Viviana Piermattei, Daniele Piazzolla, Jacopo Alessandri, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Giovanni Coppini, Marco Marcelli, and Nadia Pinardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3737–3758, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3737-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3737-2025, 2025
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This research investigates how seagrass meadows attenuate coastal waves. Our methodology integrates site measurements with numerical simulations, revealing that plant flexibility and seasonal growth cycles are crucial factors that enhance model fidelity for predicting wave damping. These insights aid ecosystem-based coastal protection and conservation of these vital habitats. Future work should address current–sediment–vegetation interactions for a more complete hydrodynamic understanding.
Dimitra Denaxa, Gerasimos Korres, Sofia Darmaraki, and Maria Hatzaki
State Planet, 6-osr9, 10, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-10-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-6-osr9-10-2025, 2025
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The Mediterranean Sea experiences a basin-wide increase in sea surface temperature (SST) and extreme SST occurrences. Stronger warming trends are found in the eastern basin, where a decrease in SST variability is also observed. Our findings on the origin of marine heatwave (MHW) trends in the basin suggest that the mean SST warming drives the long-term trends for most MHW properties across the basin, except for mean MHW intensity, where interannual variability emerges as the dominant driver.
Leonardo Lima, Rafael Menezes, Ehsan Sadighrad, Ronan McAdam, Filipe Costa, Pietro Miraglio, Mehmet Ilicak, Eric Jansen, Ali Aydogdu, Francesco Maicu, and Emanuela Clementi
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-6, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
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As climate change intensifies, marine heatwaves (MHWs), periods of unusually high ocean temperatures, threaten ecosystems and communities. This study analyzes MHWs in the Mediterranean and Black Seas, examining surface temperatures and ocean heat content in the upper 0–40 meters to capture subsurface warming. Findings highlight the need to monitor both surface and subsurface conditions for a comprehensive understanding and better management considering ongoing warming trends in both seas.
Federica Borile, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Jue Lin-Ye, Anna Mangilli, Ali Aydogdu, Emanuela Clementi, and Paolo Oddo
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-2, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
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Sea level trends are analysed in the western and eastern Mediterranean Sea using satellite and in-situ data. We found that sea level rise is not constant but varies over decades and differs between regions. These changes are influenced by temperature, salinity, and local land movements. Understanding this variability helps improve coastal planning and prepares communities for changing sea levels in the near future.
Valeria Di Biagio, Stefano Querin, Carolina Amadio, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Stefano Piani, Simone Spada, and Gianpiero Cossarini
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2025-9, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
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Anomalous eutrophication levels characterised the northern Adriatic Sea in 2024 spring and fall. We analysed the anomaly in marine chlorophyll and primary production by using satellite and models, in connection with multiple events of very intense river discharges, high temperatures and circulation structures. Our study proves the importance of coastal forecasting models to monitor ocean-land dynamics.
Salvatore Causio, Seimur Shirinov, Ivan Federico, Giovanni De Cillis, Emanuela Clementi, Lorenzo Mentaschi, and Giovanni Coppini
Ocean Sci., 21, 1105–1123, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1105-2025, 2025
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This study examines how waves and ocean currents interact during severe weather, focusing on Medicane Ianos, one of the strongest storms in the Mediterranean. Using advanced modeling, we created a unique system to simulate these interactions, capturing effects like wave-induced water levels and wave-induced effects on the vertical structure of the ocean. We validated our approach with ideal tests and real data from the storm.
Mauro Cirano, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Emanuela Clementi, Boris Dewitte, Matias Dinápoli, Ghada El Serafy, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Ivonne Montes, Diego A. Narvaez, Heather Regan, Claudia G. Simionato, Gregory C. Smith, Joanna Staneva, Clemente A. S. Tanajura, Pramod Thupaki, Claudia Urbano-Latorre, Jennifer Veitch, and Jorge Zavala Hidalgo
State Planet, 5-opsr, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-5-2025, 2025
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Operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are crucial for human activities, environmental monitoring, and policymaking. An assessment across eight key regions highlights strengths and gaps, particularly in coastal and biogeochemical forecasting. AI offers improvements, but collaboration, knowledge sharing, and initiatives like the OceanPrediction Decade Collaborative Centre (DCC) are key to enhancing accuracy, accessibility, and global forecasting capabilities.
Jennifer Veitch, Enrique Alvarez-Fanjul, Arthur Capet, Stefania Ciliberti, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Fraser Davidson, Ghada el Serafy, Guilherme Franz, Patrick Hogan, Sudheer Joseph, Svitlana Liubartseva, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Heather Regan, and Katerina Spanoudaki
State Planet, 5-opsr, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-6-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-6-2025, 2025
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Ocean forecast systems provide information about a future state of the ocean. This information is provided in the form of decision support tools, or downstream applications, that can be accessed by various stakeholders to support livelihoods, coastal resilience and the good governance of the marine environment. This paper provides an overview of the various downstream applications of ocean forecast systems that are utilized around the world.
Gianpiero Cossarini, Andrew Moore, Stefano Ciavatta, and Katja Fennel
State Planet, 5-opsr, 12, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-12-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-5-opsr-12-2025, 2025
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Marine biogeochemistry refers to the cycling of chemical elements resulting from physical transport, chemical reaction, uptake, and processing by living organisms. Biogeochemical models can have a wide range of complexity, from a single nutrient to fully explicit representations of multiple nutrients, trophic levels, and functional groups. Uncertainty sources are the lack of knowledge about the parameterizations, the initial and boundary conditions, and the lack of observations.
Anita Grezio, Damiano Delrosso, Marco Anzidei, Marco Bianucci, Giovanni Chiodini, Antonio Costa, Antonio Guarnieri, Marina Locritani, Silvia Merlino, Filippo Muccini, Marco Paterni, Dmitri Rouwet, Giancarlo Tamburello, and Georg Umgiesser
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-286, 2025
Preprint archived
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Volcanic lakes have been recognized as a rare but devastating source of disasters after the limnic eruption of Lake Nyos in 1986. The potential risk of Lake Albano (20 km southeast of the centre of Rome, Italy) is due to exposed elements (people presence, economic and touristic activities). The 3D modelling of the lake dynamics is crucial to investigate the lake stratification and degassing and the current and future behavior and stability of Lake Albano.
Siren Rühs, Ton van den Bremer, Emanuela Clementi, Michael C. Denes, Aimie Moulin, and Erik van Sebille
Ocean Sci., 21, 217–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-217-2025, 2025
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Simulating the transport of floating particles on the ocean surface is crucial for solving many societal issues. Here, we investigate how the representation of wind-generated surface waves impacts particle transport simulations. We find that different wave-driven processes can alter transport patterns and that commonly adopted approximations are not always adequate. This suggests that ideally coupled ocean–wave models should be used for surface particle transport simulations.
José A. Jiménez, Gundula Winter, Antonio Bonaduce, Michael Depuydt, Giulia Galluccio, Bart van den Hurk, H. E. Markus Meier, Nadia Pinardi, Lavinia G. Pomarico, and Natalia Vazquez Riveiros
State Planet, 3-slre1, 3, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-3-2024, 2024
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The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (SLR) has done a scoping study involving stakeholders from government and academia to identify gaps and needs in SLR information, impacts, and policies across Europe. Gaps in regional SLR projections and uncertainties were found, while concerns were raised about shoreline erosion and emerging problems like saltwater intrusion and ineffective adaptation plans. The need for improved communication to make better decisions on SLR adaptation was highlighted.
Nadia Pinardi, Bart van den Hurk, Michael Depuydt, Thorsten Kiefer, Petra Manderscheid, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, and Kanika Singh
State Planet, 3-slre1, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-2-2024, 2024
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The Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise (KH-SLR), a joint effort between JPI Climate and JPI Oceans, addresses the critical need for science-based information on sea level changes in Europe. The KH-SLR actively involves stakeholders through a co-design process discussing the impacts, adaptation planning, and policy requirements related to SLR in Europe. Its primary output is the KH Assessment Report (KH-AR), which is described in this volume.
Bart van den Hurk, Nadia Pinardi, Alexander Bisaro, Giulia Galluccio, José A. Jiménez, Kate Larkin, Angélique Melet, Lavinia Giulia Pomarico, Kristin Richter, Kanika Singh, Roderik van de Wal, and Gundula Winter
State Planet, 3-slre1, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-1-2024, 2024
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The Summary for Policymakers compiles findings from “Sea Level Rise in Europe: 1st Assessment Report of the Knowledge Hub on Sea Level Rise”. It covers knowledge gaps, observations, projections, impacts, adaptation measures, decision-making principles, and governance challenges. It provides information for each European basin (Mediterranean, Black Sea, North Sea, Baltic Sea, Atlantic, and Arctic) and aims to assist policymakers in enhancing the preparedness of European coasts for sea level rise.
Gloria Pietropolli, Luca Manzoni, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7347–7364, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7347-2024, 2024
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Monitoring the ocean is essential for studying marine life and human impact. Our new software, PPCon, uses ocean data to predict key factors like nitrate and chlorophyll levels, which are hard to measure directly. By leveraging machine learning, PPCon offers more accurate and efficient predictions.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Jonathan Baker, Clément Bricaud, Romain Bourdalle-Badie, Lluis Castrillo, Lijing Cheng, Frederic Chevallier, Daniele Ciani, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Gilles Garric, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Kevin Hodges, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Thomas Lavergne, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Audrey Minière, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Ad Stoffelen, Sulian Thual, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, Chunxue Yang, and Hao Zuo
State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Dimitra Denaxa, Gerasimos Korres, Giulia Bonino, Simona Masina, and Maria Hatzaki
State Planet, 4-osr8, 11, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-11-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-11-2024, 2024
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We investigate the air–sea heat flux during marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea. Surface heat flux drives 44 % of the onset and only 17 % of the declining MHW phases, suggesting a key role of oceanic processes. Heat flux is more important in warmer months and onset phases, with latent heat dominating. Shorter events show a weaker heat flux contribution. In most cases, mixed layer shoaling occurs over the entire MHW duration, followed by vertical mixing after the MHW end day.
Anna Teruzzi, Ali Aydogdu, Carolina Amadio, Emanuela Clementi, Simone Colella, Valeria Di Biagio, Massimiliano Drudi, Claudia Fanelli, Laura Feudale, Alessandro Grandi, Pietro Miraglio, Andrea Pisano, Jenny Pistoia, Marco Reale, Stefano Salon, Gianluca Volpe, and Gianpiero Cossarini
State Planet, 4-osr8, 15, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-15-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-15-2024, 2024
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A noticeable cold spell occurred in Eastern Europe at the beginning of 2022 and was the main driver of intense deep-water formation and the associated transport of nutrients to the surface. Southeast of Crete, the availability of both light and nutrients in the surface layer stimulated an anomalous phytoplankton bloom. In the area, chlorophyll concentration (a proxy for bloom intensity) and primary production were considerably higher than usual, suggesting possible impacts on fishery catches.
Ronan McAdam, Giulia Bonino, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
State Planet, 4-osr8, 13, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-13-2024, 2024
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In the summer of 2022, a regional short-term forecasting system was able to predict the onset, spread, peaks, and decay of a record-breaking marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea up to 10 d in advance. Satellite data show that the event was record-breaking in terms of basin-wide intensity and duration. This study demonstrates the potential of state-of-the-art forecasting systems to provide early warning of marine heatwaves for marine activities (e.g. conservation and aquaculture).
Bethany McDonagh, Emanuela Clementi, Anna Chiara Goglio, and Nadia Pinardi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, 2024
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Tides in the Mediterranean Sea are typically of low amplitude, but twin experiments with and without tides demonstrate that tides affect the circulation directly at scales away from those of the tides. Analysis of the energy changes due to tides shows that they enhance existing oscillations, and internal tides interact with other internal waves. Tides also increase the mixed layer depth and enhance deep water formation in key regions. Internal tides are widespread in the Mediterranean Sea.
Roberta Benincasa, Giovanni Liguori, Nadia Pinardi, and Hans von Storch
Ocean Sci., 20, 1003–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, 2024
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Ocean dynamics result from the interplay of internal processes and external inputs, primarily from the atmosphere. It is crucial to discern between these factors to gauge the ocean's intrinsic predictability and to be able to attribute a signal under study to either external factors or internal variability. Employing a simple analysis, we successfully characterized this variability in the Mediterranean Sea and compared it with the oceanic response induced by atmospheric conditions.
Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Lars Nerger, Anna Teruzzi, Simone Spada, Jozef Skákala, and Stefano Ciavatta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5619–5639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, 2024
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To understand and predict the ocean’s capacity for carbon sequestration, its ability to supply food, and its response to climate change, we need the best possible estimate of its physical and biogeochemical properties. This is obtained through data assimilation which blends numerical models and observations. We present the Ensemble and Assimilation Tool (EAT), a flexible and efficient test bed that allows any scientist to explore and further develop the state of the art in data assimilation.
Carolina Amadio, Anna Teruzzi, Gloria Pietropolli, Luca Manzoni, Gianluca Coidessa, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Ocean Sci., 20, 689–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-689-2024, 2024
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Forecasting of marine biogeochemistry can be improved via the assimilation of observations. Floating buoys provide multivariate information about the status of the ocean interior. Information on the ocean interior can be expanded/augmented by machine learning. In this work, we show the enhanced impact of assimilating new in situ variables (oxygen) and reconstructed variables (nitrate) in the operational forecast system (MedBFM) model of the Mediterranean Sea.
Elena Bianco, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simona Masina, Stefano Materia, and Paolo Ruggieri
The Cryosphere, 18, 2357–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024, 2024
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Changes in ocean heat transport and surface heat fluxes in recent decades have altered the Arctic Ocean heat budget and caused warming of the upper ocean. Using two eddy-permitting ocean reanalyses, we show that this has important implications for sea ice variability. In the Arctic regional seas, upper-ocean heat content acts as an important precursor for sea ice anomalies on sub-seasonal timescales, and this link has strengthened since the 2000s.
Dimitra Denaxa, Gerasimos Korres, Emmanouil Flaounas, and Maria Hatzaki
Ocean Sci., 20, 433–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-433-2024, 2024
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This study explores extreme marine summers (EMSs) in the Mediterranean Sea using sea surface temperature (SST) data. EMSs arise mainly due to the warmest summer days being unusually warm. Air–sea heat fluxes drive EMSs in northern regions, where also enhanced marine heatwave conditions are found during EMSs. Long-term SST changes lead to warmer EMSs while not affecting the way daily SST values are organized during EMSs. Findings enhance comprehension of anomalously warm conditions in the basin.
Giulia Bonino, Giuliano Galimberti, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, and Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Sci., 20, 417–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, 2024
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This study employs machine learning to predict marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea. MHWs have far-reaching impacts on society and ecosystems. Using data from ESA and ECMWF, the research develops accurate prediction models for sea surface temperature (SST) and MHWs across the region. Notably, machine learning methods outperform existing forecasting systems, showing promise in early MHW predictions. The study also highlights the importance of solar radiation as a predictor of SST.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, 2024
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Computational models are used to simulate the behavior of marine ecosystems. The models often have unknown parameters that need to be calibrated to accurately represent observational data. Here, we propose a novel approach to simultaneously determine a large set of parameters for a one-dimensional model of a marine ecosystem in the surface ocean at two contrasting sites. By utilizing global and local optimization techniques, we estimate many parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
Eva Álvarez, Gianpiero Cossarini, Anna Teruzzi, Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Stefano Ciavatta, Vincenzo Vellucci, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, David Antoine, and Paolo Lazzari
Biogeosciences, 20, 4591–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4591-2023, 2023
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Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) interacts with the ambient light and gives the waters of the Mediterranean Sea their colour. We propose a novel parameterization of the CDOM cycle, whose parameter values have been optimized by using the data of the monitoring site BOUSSOLE. Nutrient and light limitations for locally produced CDOM caused aCDOM(λ) to covary with chlorophyll, while the above-average CDOM concentrations observed at this site were maintained by allochthonous sources.
Simone Spada, Anna Teruzzi, Stefano Maset, Stefano Salon, Cosimo Solidoro, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-170, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
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In geosciences, data assimilation (DA) combines modeled dynamics and observations to reduce simulation uncertainties. Uncertainties can be dynamically and effectively estimated in ensemble DA methods. With respect to current techniques, the novel GHOSH ensemble DA scheme is designed to improve accuracy by reaching a higher approximation order, without increasing computational costs, as demonstrated in idealized Lorenz96 tests and in realistic simulations of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry
Doroteaciro Iovino, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6127–6159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6127-2023, 2023
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This paper describes the model performance of three global ocean–sea ice configurations, from non-eddying (1°) to eddy-rich (1/16°) resolutions. Model simulations are obtained following the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP2) protocol. We compare key global climate variables across the three models and against observations, emphasizing the relative advantages and disadvantages of running forced ocean–sea ice models at higher resolution.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Valeria Di Biagio, Riccardo Martellucci, Milena Menna, Anna Teruzzi, Carolina Amadio, Elena Mauri, and Gianpiero Cossarini
State Planet, 1-osr7, 10, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-10-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-10-2023, 2023
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Oxygen is essential to all aerobic organisms, and its content in the marine environment is continuously under assessment. By integrating observations with a model, we describe the dissolved oxygen variability in a sensitive Mediterranean area in the period 1999–2021 and ascribe it to multiple acting physical and biological drivers. Moreover, the reduction recognized in 2021, apparently also due to other mechanisms, requires further monitoring in light of its possible impacts.
Ali Aydogdu, Pietro Miraglio, Romain Escudier, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
State Planet, 1-osr7, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, 2023
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This paper investigates the salt content, salinity anomaly and trend in the Mediterranean Sea using observational and reanalysis products. The salt content increases overall, while negative salinity anomalies appear in the western basin, especially around the upwelling regions. There is a large spread in the salinity estimates that is reduced with the emergence of the Argo profilers.
Andrea Cipollone, Deep Sankar Banerjee, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ali Aydogdu, and Simona Masina
Ocean Sci., 19, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1375-2023, 2023
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Sea-ice volume is characterized by low predictability compared to the sea ice area or the extent. A joint initialization of the thickness and concentration using satellite data could improve the predictive power, although it is still absent in the present global analysis–reanalysis systems. This study shows a scheme to correct the two features together that can be easily extended to include ocean variables. The impact of such a joint initialization is shown and compared among different set-ups.
Sukun Cheng, Yumeng Chen, Ali Aydoğdu, Laurent Bertino, Alberto Carrassi, Pierre Rampal, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 17, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, 2023
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This work studies a novel application of combining a Lagrangian sea ice model, neXtSIM, and data assimilation. It uses a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to incorporate satellite-observed ice concentration and thickness in simulations. The neXtSIM Lagrangian nature is handled using a remapping strategy on a common homogeneous mesh. The ensemble is formed by perturbing air–ocean boundary conditions and ice cohesion. Thanks to data assimilation, winter Arctic sea ice forecasting is enhanced.
Alexandre Mignot, Hervé Claustre, Gianpiero Cossarini, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Elodie Gutknecht, Julien Lamouroux, Paolo Lazzari, Coralie Perruche, Stefano Salon, Raphaëlle Sauzède, Vincent Taillandier, and Anna Teruzzi
Biogeosciences, 20, 1405–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, 2023
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Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are becoming a major tool to detect and predict the impact of climate change on marine resources and monitor ocean health. Here, we demonstrate the use of the global array of BGC-Argo floats for the assessment of biogeochemical models. We first detail the handling of the BGC-Argo data set for model assessment purposes. We then present 23 assessment metrics to quantify the consistency of BGC model simulations with respect to BGC-Argo data.
Juan Pablo Almeida, Lorenzo Menichetti, Alf Ekblad, Nicholas P. Rosenstock, and Håkan Wallander
Biogeosciences, 20, 1443–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1443-2023, 2023
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In forests, trees allocate a significant amount of carbon belowground to support mycorrhizal symbiosis. In northern forests nitrogen normally regulates this allocation and consequently mycorrhizal fungi growth. In this study we demonstrate that in a conifer forest from Sweden, fungal growth is regulated by phosphorus instead of nitrogen. This is probably due to an increase in nitrogen deposition to soils caused by decades of human pollution that has altered the ecosystem nutrient regime.
Giulia Bonino, Simona Masina, Giuliano Galimberti, and Matteo Moretti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1269–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1269-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1269-2023, 2023
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We present a unique observational dataset of marine heat wave (MHW) macroevents and their characteristics over southern Europe and western Asian (SEWA) basins in the SEWA-MHW dataset. This dataset is the first effort in the literature to archive extremely hot sea surface temperature macroevents. The advantages of the availability of SEWA-MHWs are avoiding the waste of computational resources to detect MHWs and building a consistent framework which would increase comparability among MHW studies.
Valeria Di Biagio, Stefano Salon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 19, 5553–5574, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, 2022
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The amount of dissolved oxygen in the ocean is the result of interacting physical and biological processes. Oxygen vertical profiles show a subsurface maximum in a large part of the ocean. We used a numerical model to map this subsurface maximum in the Mediterranean Sea and to link local differences in its properties to the driving processes. This emerging feature can help the marine ecosystem functioning to be better understood, also under the impacts of climate change.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
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The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Charikleia L. G. Oikonomou, Dimitra Denaxa, and Gerasimos Korres
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-16, 2022
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We explore the wave energy resource within the Mediterranean basin, along with the dominant wave regime. Results suggest that although the basin is not characterised by high energy potential, it could serve as a deployment zone for low-power devices due to low peak period variability and high site accessibility levels. Results suggest that further research is required to determine the dominant wave regime, as the high contribution of swell partitions hints the occurrence of mixed sea states.
Giulia Bonino, Doroteaciro Iovino, Laurent Brodeau, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6873–6889, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6873-2022, 2022
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The sea surface temperature (SST) is highly influenced by the transfer of energy driven by turbulent air–sea fluxes (TASFs). In the NEMO ocean general circulation model, TASFs are computed by means of bulk formulas. Bulk formulas require the choice of a given bulk parameterization, which influences the magnitudes of the TASFs. Our results show that parameterization-related SST differences are primarily sensitive to the wind stress differences across parameterizations.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
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Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Ginevra Rosati, Donata Canu, Paolo Lazzari, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 19, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, 2022
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Methylmercury (MeHg) is produced and bioaccumulated in marine food webs, posing concerns for human exposure through seafood consumption. We modeled and analyzed the fate of MeHg in the lower food web of the Mediterranean Sea. The modeled spatial–temporal distribution of plankton bioaccumulation differs from the distribution of MeHg in surface water. We also show that MeHg exposure concentrations in temperate waters can be lowered by winter convection, which is declining due to climate change.
Giorgio Micaletto, Ivano Barletta, Silvia Mocavero, Ivan Federico, Italo Epicoco, Giorgia Verri, Giovanni Coppini, Pasquale Schiano, Giovanni Aloisio, and Nadia Pinardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6025–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, 2022
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The full exploitation of supercomputing architectures requires a deep revision of the current climate models. This paper presents the parallelization of the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules). Optimized numerical libraries were used to partition the model domain and solve the sparse linear system of equations in parallel. The performance assessment demonstrates a good level of scalability with a realistic configuration used as a benchmark.
Enrico Scoccimarro, Daniele Peano, Silvio Gualdi, Alessio Bellucci, Tomas Lovato, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Antonio Navarra
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1841–1854, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, 2022
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This study evaluated the ability of the CMCC-CM2 climate model participating to the last CMIP6 effort, in representing extreme events of precipitation and temperature at the daily and 6-hourly frequencies. The 1/4° resolution version of the atmospheric model provides better results than the version at 1° resolution for temperature extremes, at both time frequencies. For precipitation extremes, especially at the daily time frequency, the higher resolution does not improve model results.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
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This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Anna Teruzzi, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 18, 6147–6166, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6147-2021, 2021
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During summer, maxima of phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration (DCM) occur in the subsurface of the Mediterranean Sea and can play a relevant role in carbon sequestration into the ocean interior. A numerical model based on in situ and satellite observations provides insights into the range of DCM conditions across the relatively small Mediterranean Sea and shows a western DCM that is 25 % shallower and with a higher phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration than in the eastern Mediterranean.
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Short summary
The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in...
