Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Oct 2023
Research article |
| 25 Oct 2023
| 25 Oct 2023
The Mediterranean Forecasting System – Part 1: Evolution and performance
Giovanni Coppini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Gianpiero Cossarini
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Stefano Salon
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Gerasimos Korres
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Michalis Ravdas
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Rita Lecci
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Jenny Pistoia
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Anna Chiara Goglio
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Massimiliano Drudi
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Alessandro Grandi
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Ali Aydogdu
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Romain Escudier
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Mercator Océan International, Toulouse, France
Andrea Cipollone
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Vladyslav Lyubartsev
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Antonio Mariani
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Sergio Cretì
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Francesco Palermo
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Matteo Scuro
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Simona Masina
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Nadia Pinardi
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce, Italy
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Antonio Navarra
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce, Italy
Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (BIGEA), Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Damiano Delrosso
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Bologna, Italy
Anna Teruzzi
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Valeria Di Biagio
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Giorgio Bolzon
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Laura Feudale
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Gianluca Coidessa
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Carolina Amadio
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Alberto Brosich
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Arnau Miró
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Eva Alvarez
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Paolo Lazzari
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Cosimo Solidoro
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Charikleia Oikonomou
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Anna Zacharioudaki
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
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Ronan McAdam, Giulia Bonino, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
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Dimitra Denaxa, Gerasimos Korres, Giulia Bonino, Simona Masina, and Maria Hatzaki
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This study investigates air-sea heat fluxes during marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea. Surface fluxes drive 44 % of the onset and only 17 % of the decline phases of MHWs, suggesting a key role of oceanic processes. Heat fluxes are more important in warmer months and onset phases, with the latent heat dominating. Shorter events show weaker heat flux contribution. In most cases, mixed layer shoaling occurs over the entire MHW duration, followed by vertical mixing after the MHW end day.
Carolina Amadio, Anna Teruzzi, Gloria Pietropolli, Luca Manzoni, Gianluca Coidessa, and Gianpiero Cossarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1588, 2023
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Forecasting the marine biogeochemistry can be improved through assimilation of observations. Floating buoys provide multivariate information about the status of the ocean interior. Information on ocean interior can be expanded/augmented by machine learning. In this work we show the enhanced impact of assimilating new in-situ variables (oxygen) and reconstructed variables (nitrate) in the operational forecast system (MedBFM) model of the Mediterranean Sea.
Sukun Cheng, Yumeng Chen, Ali Aydoğdu, Laurent Bertino, Alberto Carrassi, Pierre Rampal, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 17, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, 2023
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This work studies a novel application of combining a Lagrangian sea ice model, neXtSIM, and data assimilation. It uses a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to incorporate satellite-observed ice concentration and thickness in simulations. The neXtSIM Lagrangian nature is handled using a remapping strategy on a common homogeneous mesh. The ensemble is formed by perturbing air–ocean boundary conditions and ice cohesion. Thanks to data assimilation, winter Arctic sea ice forecasting is enhanced.
Alexandre Mignot, Hervé Claustre, Gianpiero Cossarini, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Elodie Gutknecht, Julien Lamouroux, Paolo Lazzari, Coralie Perruche, Stefano Salon, Raphaëlle Sauzède, Vincent Taillandier, and Anna Teruzzi
Biogeosciences, 20, 1405–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, 2023
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Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are becoming a major tool to detect and predict the impact of climate change on marine resources and monitor ocean health. Here, we demonstrate the use of the global array of BGC-Argo floats for the assessment of biogeochemical models. We first detail the handling of the BGC-Argo data set for model assessment purposes. We then present 23 assessment metrics to quantify the consistency of BGC model simulations with respect to BGC-Argo data.
Juan Pablo Almeida, Lorenzo Menichetti, Alf Ekblad, Nicholas P. Rosenstock, and Håkan Wallander
Biogeosciences, 20, 1443–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1443-2023, 2023
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In forests, trees allocate a significant amount of carbon belowground to support mycorrhizal symbiosis. In northern forests nitrogen normally regulates this allocation and consequently mycorrhizal fungi growth. In this study we demonstrate that in a conifer forest from Sweden, fungal growth is regulated by phosphorus instead of nitrogen. This is probably due to an increase in nitrogen deposition to soils caused by decades of human pollution that has altered the ecosystem nutrient regime.
Giulia Bonino, Simona Masina, Giuliano Galimberti, and Matteo Moretti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1269–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1269-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1269-2023, 2023
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We present a unique observational dataset of marine heat wave (MHW) macroevents and their characteristics over southern Europe and western Asian (SEWA) basins in the SEWA-MHW dataset. This dataset is the first effort in the literature to archive extremely hot sea surface temperature macroevents. The advantages of the availability of SEWA-MHWs are avoiding the waste of computational resources to detect MHWs and building a consistent framework which would increase comparability among MHW studies.
Valeria Di Biagio, Stefano Salon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 19, 5553–5574, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, 2022
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The amount of dissolved oxygen in the ocean is the result of interacting physical and biological processes. Oxygen vertical profiles show a subsurface maximum in a large part of the ocean. We used a numerical model to map this subsurface maximum in the Mediterranean Sea and to link local differences in its properties to the driving processes. This emerging feature can help the marine ecosystem functioning to be better understood, also under the impacts of climate change.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
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The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Charikleia L. G. Oikonomou, Dimitra Denaxa, and Gerasimos Korres
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-16, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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We explore the wave energy resource within the Mediterranean basin, along with the dominant wave regime. Results suggest that although the basin is not characterised by high energy potential, it could serve as a deployment zone for low-power devices due to low peak period variability and high site accessibility levels. Results suggest that further research is required to determine the dominant wave regime, as the high contribution of swell partitions hints the occurrence of mixed sea states.
Giulia Bonino, Doroteaciro Iovino, Laurent Brodeau, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6873–6889, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6873-2022, 2022
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The sea surface temperature (SST) is highly influenced by the transfer of energy driven by turbulent air–sea fluxes (TASFs). In the NEMO ocean general circulation model, TASFs are computed by means of bulk formulas. Bulk formulas require the choice of a given bulk parameterization, which influences the magnitudes of the TASFs. Our results show that parameterization-related SST differences are primarily sensitive to the wind stress differences across parameterizations.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
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Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Ginevra Rosati, Donata Canu, Paolo Lazzari, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 19, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, 2022
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Methylmercury (MeHg) is produced and bioaccumulated in marine food webs, posing concerns for human exposure through seafood consumption. We modeled and analyzed the fate of MeHg in the lower food web of the Mediterranean Sea. The modeled spatial–temporal distribution of plankton bioaccumulation differs from the distribution of MeHg in surface water. We also show that MeHg exposure concentrations in temperate waters can be lowered by winter convection, which is declining due to climate change.
Giorgio Micaletto, Ivano Barletta, Silvia Mocavero, Ivan Federico, Italo Epicoco, Giorgia Verri, Giovanni Coppini, Pasquale Schiano, Giovanni Aloisio, and Nadia Pinardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6025–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, 2022
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The full exploitation of supercomputing architectures requires a deep revision of the current climate models. This paper presents the parallelization of the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules). Optimized numerical libraries were used to partition the model domain and solve the sparse linear system of equations in parallel. The performance assessment demonstrates a good level of scalability with a realistic configuration used as a benchmark.
Enrico Scoccimarro, Daniele Peano, Silvio Gualdi, Alessio Bellucci, Tomas Lovato, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Antonio Navarra
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1841–1854, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, 2022
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This study evaluated the ability of the CMCC-CM2 climate model participating to the last CMIP6 effort, in representing extreme events of precipitation and temperature at the daily and 6-hourly frequencies. The 1/4° resolution version of the atmospheric model provides better results than the version at 1° resolution for temperature extremes, at both time frequencies. For precipitation extremes, especially at the daily time frequency, the higher resolution does not improve model results.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
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This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Anna Teruzzi, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 18, 6147–6166, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6147-2021, 2021
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During summer, maxima of phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration (DCM) occur in the subsurface of the Mediterranean Sea and can play a relevant role in carbon sequestration into the ocean interior. A numerical model based on in situ and satellite observations provides insights into the range of DCM conditions across the relatively small Mediterranean Sea and shows a western DCM that is 25 % shallower and with a higher phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration than in the eastern Mediterranean.
Paolo Lazzari, Stefano Salon, Elena Terzić, Watson W. Gregg, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Vincenzo Vellucci, Emanuele Organelli, and David Antoine
Ocean Sci., 17, 675–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-675-2021, 2021
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Multispectral optical sensors and models are increasingly adopted to study marine systems. In this work, bio-optical mooring and biogeochemical Argo float optical observations are combined with the Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) to analyse the variability of sunlight at the sea surface. We show that the model skill in simulating data varies according to the wavelength of light and temporal scale considered and that it is significantly affected by cloud dynamics.
Katherine M. Smith, Skyler Kern, Peter E. Hamlington, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Emily F. Klee, and Kyle E. Niemeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2419–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, 2021
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We present a newly developed reduced-order biogeochemical flux model that is complex and flexible enough to capture open-ocean ecosystem dynamics but reduced enough to incorporate into highly resolved numerical simulations with limited additional computational cost. The model provides improved correlations between model output and field data, indicating that significant improvements in the reproduction of real-world data can be achieved with a small number of variables.
Giulia Bonino, Elisa Lovecchio, Nicolas Gruber, Matthias Münnich, Simona Masina, and Doroteaciro Iovino
Biogeosciences, 18, 2429–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2429-2021, 2021
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Seasonal variations of processes such as upwelling and biological production that happen along the northwestern African coast can modulate the temporal variability of the biological activity of the adjacent open North Atlantic hundreds of kilometers away from the coast thanks to the lateral transport of coastal organic carbon. This happens with a temporal delay, which is smaller than a season up to roughly 500 km from the coast due to the intense transport by small-scale filaments.
Elena Terzić, Arnau Miró, Paolo Lazzari, Emanuele Organelli, and Fabrizio D'Ortenzio
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-473, 2021
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This study integrates numerical simulations (using a multi-spectral optical model) with in-situ measurements of floats and remotely sensed observations from satellites. It aims at improving our current understanding of the impact that different constituents (such as pure water, colored dissolved organic matter, detritus and phytoplankton) have on the in-water light propagation.
Valeria Di Biagio, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 17, 5967–5988, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, 2020
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Events that influence the functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems are of interest in relation to a changing climate. We propose a method to identify and characterise
wavesof extreme events affecting marine ecosystems for multi-week periods over wide areas. Our method can be applied to suitable ecosystem variables and has been used to describe different kinds of extreme event waves of phytoplankton chlorophyll in the Mediterranean Sea, by analysing the output from a high-resolution model.
Giuliana Rossi, Gualtiero Böhm, Angela Saraò, Diego Cotterle, Lorenzo Facchin, Paolo Giurco, Renata Giulia Lucchi, Maria Elena Musco, Francesca Petrera, Stefano Picotti, and Stefano Salon
Geosci. Commun., 3, 381–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-381-2020, 2020
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We organized an exhibition on the climate crisis using high-quality images shot by scientists, who are amateur photographers, during their campaigns in glacier regions. Working-age people, attracted by the gorgeous images, received the message that such beauty is in danger of vanishing. Twice, the visitors could talk directly with the experts to discuss geoscience, photography, and aesthetic choices and, of course, climate change, a problem that each of us has to play a part in to solve.
Hiroyuki Tsujino, L. Shogo Urakawa, Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Alistair J. Adcroft, Arthur E. Amaral, Thomas Arsouze, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Claus W. Böning, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Sergey Danilov, Raphael Dussin, Eleftheria Exarchou, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Doroteaciro Iovino, Who M. Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, Vladimir Lapin, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Keith Lindsay, Hailong Liu, Matthew C. Long, Yoshiki Komuro, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Aleksi Nummelin, Jan Klaus Rieck, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Markus Scheinert, Valentina Sicardi, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tatsuo Suzuki, Hiroaki Tatebe, Qiang Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Zipeng Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3643–3708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, 2020
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The OMIP-2 framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations is assessed by comparing multi-model means from 11 CMIP6-class global ocean–sea-ice models calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations. Many features are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet key improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2 are also identified. Thus, the present assessment justifies that future ocean–sea-ice model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.
Eric Jansen, Sam Pimentel, Wang-Hung Tse, Dimitra Denaxa, Gerasimos Korres, Isabelle Mirouze, and Andrea Storto
Ocean Sci., 15, 1023–1032, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1023-2019, 2019
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The assimilation of satellite SST data into ocean models is complex. The temperature of the thin uppermost layer that is measured by satellites may differ from the much thicker upper layer used in numerical models, leading to biased results. This paper shows how canonical correlation analysis can be used to generate observation operators from existing datasets of model states and corresponding observation values. This type of operator can correct for near-surface effects when assimilating SST.
Stefano Salon, Gianpiero Cossarini, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, Paolo Lazzari, Anna Teruzzi, Cosimo Solidoro, and Alessandro Crise
Ocean Sci., 15, 997–1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-997-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-997-2019, 2019
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After 10 years of research and development, validated analysis and forecasts of the main parameters of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry (e.g. phytoplankton, nutrients, oxygen, pH, carbon fluxes) at high spatial and temporal resolution are provided in the frame of the EU Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service. Along with a traditional skill performance assessment, novel metrics exploiting the Biogeochemical Argo floats data are designed to estimate the forecasts uncertainty.
Ali Aydoğdu, Alberto Carrassi, Colin T. Guider, Chris K. R. T Jones, and Pierre Rampal
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 175–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-175-2019, 2019
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Computational models involving adaptive meshes can both evolve dynamically and be remeshed. Remeshing means that the state vector dimension changes in time and across ensemble members, making the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) unsuitable for assimilation of observational data. We develop a modification in which analysis is performed on a fixed uniform grid onto which the ensemble is mapped, with resolution relating to the remeshing criteria. The approach is successfully tested on two 1-D models.
Elena Terzić, Paolo Lazzari, Emanuele Organelli, Cosimo Solidoro, Stefano Salon, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, and Pascal Conan
Biogeosciences, 16, 2527–2542, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2527-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2527-2019, 2019
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Measuring ecosystem properties in the ocean is a hard business. Recent availability of data from Biogeochemical-Argo floats can help make this task easier. Numerical models can integrate these new data in a coherent picture and can be used to investigate the functioning of ecosystem processes. Our new approach merges experimental information and model capabilities to quantitatively demonstrate the importance of light and water vertical mixing for algae dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea.
Gerasimos Korres, Dimitra Denaxa, Eric Jansen, Isabelle Mirouze, Sam Pimentel, Wang-Hung Tse, and Andrea Storto
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-158, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2018-158, 2019
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A statistical-dynamical observation operator (SOSSTA) for satellite SST data assimilation able to account for SST diurnal variability, is formulated and implemented into the POSEIDON forecasting system (Aegean Sea). Model experiments where daytime SST retrievals from the SEVIRI infrared radiometer are introduced into the data assimilation procedure through the application of the observation operator, showed an improvement of the POSEIDON modelling system performance.
Michalis Ravdas, Anna Zacharioudaki, and Gerasimos Korres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2675–2695, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2675-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2675-2018, 2018
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A high-resolution operational wave forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea has been developed within the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, which provides open, cost-free, and quality-controlled products. The system accounts for waves arriving through the Straight of Gibraltar and for the effect of surface currents on waves. It provides accurate results over well-exposed locations and satisfactory results within enclosed basins and near the coast.
George Petihakis, Leonidas Perivoliotis, Gerasimos Korres, Dionysios Ballas, Constantin Frangoulis, Paris Pagonis, Manolis Ntoumas, Manos Pettas, Antonis Chalkiopoulos, Maria Sotiropoulou, Margarita Bekiari, Alkiviadis Kalampokis, Michalis Ravdas, Evi Bourma, Sylvia Christodoulaki, Anna Zacharioudaki, Dimitris Kassis, Emmanuel Potiris, George Triantafyllou, Kostas Tsiaras, Evangelia Krasakopoulou, Spyros Velanas, and Nikos Zisis
Ocean Sci., 14, 1223–1245, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1223-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-1223-2018, 2018
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Integrated oceanic observations on multiple processes including biogeochemistry are scarce. In the eastern Mediterranean (Cretan Sea) the spatiotemporal coverage of such observations has increased with the expansion of the POSEIDON observatory. The observatory addresses scientific questions, provides services to policy makers and society, and serves as a technological test bed. It plays a key role in European and international observing programs, in harmonization procedures and data handling.
Ali Aydoğdu, Nadia Pinardi, Emin Özsoy, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Özgür Gürses, and Alicia Karspeck
Ocean Sci., 14, 999–1019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-999-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-999-2018, 2018
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A 6-year simulation of the Turkish Straits System is presented. The simulation is performed by a model using unstructured triangular mesh and realistic atmospheric forcing. The dynamics and circulation of the Marmara Sea are analysed and the mean state of the system is discussed on annual averages. Volume fluxes computed throughout the simulation are presented and the response of the model to severe storms is shown. Finally, it was possible to assess the kinetic energy budget in the Marmara Sea.
Ali Aydoğdu, Timothy J. Hoar, Tomislava Vukicevic, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Nadia Pinardi, Alicia Karspeck, Jonathan Hendricks, Nancy Collins, Francesca Macchia, and Emin Özsoy
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 537–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-537-2018, 2018
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This study presents, to our knowledge, the first data assimilation experiments in the Sea of Marmara. We propose a FerryBox network for monitoring the state of the sea and show that assimilation of the temperature and salinity improves the forecasts in the basin. The flow of the Bosphorus helps to propagate the error reduction. The study can be taken as a step towards a marine forecasting system in the Sea of Marmara that will help to improve the forecasts in the adjacent Black and Aegean seas.
Giorgia Verri, Nadia Pinardi, David Gochis, Joseph Tribbia, Antonio Navarra, Giovanni Coppini, and Tomislava Vukicevic
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1741–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1741-2017, 2017
Verena Haid, Doroteaciro Iovino, and Simona Masina
The Cryosphere, 11, 1387–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1387-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1387-2017, 2017
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Since the Antarctic sea ice extent shows a recent increase, we investigate the sea ice response to changed amount and distribution of surface freshwater addition in the Southern Ocean with the ocean–sea ice model NEMO/LIM2. We find that freshwater addition within the range of current estimates increases the ice extent, but higher amounts could have an opposing effect. The freshwater distribution is of great influence on the ice dynamics and the ice thickness is strongly influenced by it.
Giovanni Coppini, Palmalisa Marra, Rita Lecci, Nadia Pinardi, Sergio Cretì, Mario Scalas, Luca Tedesco, Alessandro D'Anca, Leopoldo Fazioli, Antonio Olita, Giuseppe Turrisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Giovanni Aloisio, Sandro Fiore, Antonio Bonaduce, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Ivan Federico, Gianandrea Mannarini, Paola Agostini, Roberto Bonarelli, Sara Martinelli, Giorgia Verri, Letizia Lusito, Davide Rollo, Arturo Cavallo, Antonio Tumolo, Tony Monacizzo, Marco Spagnulo, Rorberto Sorgente, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Marina Tonani, Massimiliano Drudi, Paola Nassisi, Laura Conte, Laura Panzera, Antonio Navarra, and Giancarlo Negro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-533-2017, 2017
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SeaConditions aims to support the users by providing the environmental information in due time and with adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environments, enforcing users' sea situational awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version (www.sea-conditions.com).
Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Querin, Cosimo Solidoro, Gianmaria Sannino, Paolo Lazzari, Valeria Di Biagio, and Giorgio Bolzon
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1423–1445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1423-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1423-2017, 2017
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The BFMCOUPLER (v1.0) is a coupling scheme that links the MITgcm and BFM models for ocean biogeochemistry simulations. The online coupling is based on an open-source code characterizd by a modular structure. Modularity preserves the potentials of the two models, allowing for a sustainable programming effort to handle future evolutions in the two codes. The BFMCOUPLER code is released along with an idealized problem (a cyclonic gyre in a mid-latitude closed basin).
Alessandro D'Anca, Laura Conte, Paola Nassisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Rita Lecci, Sergio Cretì, Marco Mancini, Alessandra Nuzzo, Maria Mirto, Gianandrea Mannarini, Giovanni Coppini, Sandro Fiore, and Giovanni Aloisio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 171–184, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-171-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-171-2017, 2017
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Updated situational sea awareness requires an advanced technological system to make data available for decision makers, improving the capacity of intervention and supporting users in managing emergency situations due to natural hazards. The TESSA data platform meets the request of near-real-time access to heterogeneous data with different accuracy, resolution or degrees of aggregation providing efficient and secure data access and strong support to operational oceanographic high-level services.
Ivan Federico, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, Rita Lecci, and Michele Mossa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 45–59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-45-2017, 2017
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SANIFS (Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian coastal Forecasting System) is a coastal-ocean operational system based on the unstructured grid finite-element three-dimensional hydrodynamic SHYFEM model, which provides short-term forecasts. The operational chain is based on a downscaling approach starting from the large-scale system for the entire Mediterranean Basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting System), which provides initial and boundary condition fields for the nested system.
Zhaoyi Wang, Andrea Storto, Nadia Pinardi, Guimei Liu, and Hui Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 17–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-17-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-17-2017, 2017
Giovanni Coppini, Eric Jansen, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Creti, Elena Yurievna Shchekinova, Nadia Pinardi, Rita Lecci, Ivano Carluccio, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Alessandro D'Anca, Gianandrea Mannarini, Sara Martinelli, Palmalisa Marra, Tommaso Capodiferro, and Tommaso Gismondi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2713–2727, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2713-2016, 2016
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A new web-based and mobile Decision Support System (DSS) for Search-And-Rescue (SAR) at sea is presented, and its performance is evaluated using real case scenarios. The system, named OCEAN-SAR, is accessible via the website http://www.ocean-sar.com. OCEAN-SAR simulates drifting objects at sea, using as input ocean currents and wind. The performance of the service is evaluated by comparing simulations to data from the Italian Coast Guard pertaining to actual incidents in the Mediterranean Sea.
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, 2016
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A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
Vasco M. N. C. S. Vieira, Pavel Jurus, Emanuela Clementi, Heidi Pettersson, and Marcos Mateus
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-273, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-273, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Alex C. Ruane, Claas Teichmann, Nigel W. Arnell, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie L. Ebi, Katja Frieler, Clare M. Goodess, Bruce Hewitson, Radley Horton, R. Sari Kovats, Heike K. Lotze, Linda O. Mearns, Antonio Navarra, Dennis S. Ojima, Keywan Riahi, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Matthias Themessl, and Katharine Vincent
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3493–3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3493-2016, 2016
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The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6 was created to improve communications between communities that apply climate model output for societal benefit and the climate model centers. This manuscript describes the establishment of the VIACS Advisory Board as a coherent avenue for communication utilizing leading networks, experts, and programs; results of initial interactions during the development of CMIP6; and its potential next activities.
Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul J. Durack, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Claus W. Böning, Eric P. Chassignet, Enrique Curchitser, Julie Deshayes, Helge Drange, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Peter J. Gleckler, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helmuth Haak, Robert W. Hallberg, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, David M. Holland, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Yoshiki Komuro, John P. Krasting, William G. Large, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Trevor J. McDougall, A. J. George Nurser, James C. Orr, Anna Pirani, Fangli Qiao, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Anne Marie Treguier, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Petteri Uotila, Maria Valdivieso, Qiang Wang, Michael Winton, and Stephen G. Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This document defines OMIP and details a protocol both for simulating global ocean/sea-ice models and for analysing their output.
Emanuela Fiori, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Cristina Mazziotti, and Carla Rita Ferrari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2043–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2043-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2043-2016, 2016
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This study shows the capability of the numerical model in reproducing the trophic index (TRIX) calculated from in situ data. The ecosystem simulations can represent an important support for monitoring activities, allowing the use of TRIX to be extended to larger areas where in situ sampling activities are difficult to implement. The model TRIX was calculated for the whole Adriatic Sea, showing trophic differences across the Adriatic Sea.
Svitlana Liubartseva, Giovanni Coppini, Nadia Pinardi, Michela De Dominicis, Rita Lecci, Giuseppe Turrisi, Sergio Cretì, Sara Martinelli, Paola Agostini, Palmalisa Marra, and Francesco Palermo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2009–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2009-2016, 2016
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An innovative fully operational 24/7 web-based decision support system, WITOIL (Where Is The Oil), has been developed to support oil pollution response. The system meets the real-time requirements in terms of performance and dynamic service delivery. Comprehensive computational resources and network bandwidth efficiently support the multi-user regime. The eight-language graphical user interface incorporates a great variety of user services, e.g., help and support, tooltips, and video tutorials.
Doroteaciro Iovino, Simona Masina, Andrea Storto, Andrea Cipollone, and Vladimir N. Stepanov
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2665–2684, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2665-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2665-2016, 2016
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An 11-year simulation of a global eddying ocean (1/16) configuration is presented. Model performance is evaluated against observations and a twin 1/4 configuration. The model realistically represents the variability at upper and intermediate depths, the position and strength of the surface circulation, and exchanges of mass through key passages. Sea ice properties are close to satellite observations. This simulation constitutes the groundwork for future applications to short range ocean forecasting.
Jenny Pistoia, Nadia Pinardi, Paolo Oddo, Matthew Collins, Gerasimos Korres, and Yann Drillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1807–1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1807-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1807-2016, 2016
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In this work we developed a new multi-model super-ensemble method to estimate sea surface temperature, an important product of ocean analysis systems. We find that ensemble size, quality, type of members and the training period length are all important elements of the MMSE methodology and require careful calibration. We show that with a rather limited but overconfident data set (with a low bias of the starting ensemble members) the RMSE analysis can be improved.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Giuseppe Turrisi, Alessandro D'Anca, Mario Scalas, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Francesco Palermo, Ivano Carluccio, Matteo Scuro, Sergio Cretì, Rita Lecci, Paola Nassisi, and Luca Tedesco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1791–1806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1791-2016, 2016
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Safety and efficiency of navigation can be enhanced through a better situational awareness at sea. We designed and realized an operational infrastructure for providing the navigators with optimal routes through various devices: PC, tablets, and smartphones. Sea-state and wind forecasts are used as inputs. Both motor- and sailboat routes are addressed by VISIR.
Eric Jansen, Giovanni Coppini, and Nadia Pinardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1623–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016, 2016
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In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast.
Jun She, Icarus Allen, Erik Buch, Alessandro Crise, Johnny A. Johannessen, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Urmas Lips, Glenn Nolan, Nadia Pinardi, Jan H. Reißmann, John Siddorn, Emil Stanev, and Henning Wehde
Ocean Sci., 12, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-953-2016, 2016
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This white paper addresses key scientific challenges and research priorities for the development of operational oceanography in Europe for the next 5–10 years. Knowledge gaps and deficiencies are identified in relation to common scientific challenges in four EuroGOOS knowledge areas: European ocean observations, modelling and forecasting technology, coastal operational oceanography, and operational ecology.
Italo Epicoco, Silvia Mocavero, Francesca Macchia, Marcello Vichi, Tomas Lovato, Simona Masina, and Giovanni Aloisio
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2115–2128, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2115-2016, 2016
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The present work aims at evaluating the scalability performance of a high-resolution global ocean biogeochemistry model (PELAGOS025) on massive parallel architectures and the benefits in terms of the time-to-solution reduction. The outcome of the analysis demonstrated that the lack of scalability is due to several factors such as the I/O operations, the memory contention, and the load unbalancing due to the memory structure of the biogeochemistry model component.
Gianandrea Mannarini, Nadia Pinardi, Giovanni Coppini, Paolo Oddo, and Alessandro Iafrati
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1597–1625, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1597-2016, 2016
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VISIR is a new numerical model for the computation of optimal ship routes from meteo-marine forecasts. VISIR offers the scientific community an open platform whereby various ideas and methods for ship route optimization can be shared, tested, and compared to each other.
P. Katsafados, A. Papadopoulos, G. Korres, and G. Varlas
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 161–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-161-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-161-2016, 2016
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This paper includes the entire steps and processes to develop a two-way fully coupled atmosphere-ocean wave model (WEW) aiming a better description and understanding of the exchange processes near the ocean surface. WEW offers a more realistic representation of the extreme weather and sea state events over the ocean bodies and finally leads in an overall improved simulations.
V. M. N. C. S. Vieira, E. Sahlée, P. Jurus, E. Clementi, H. Pettersson, and M. Mateus
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15901-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15901-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
V. M. N. C. S. Vieira, E. Sahlée, P. Jurus, E. Clementi, H. Pettersson, and M. Mateus
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15925-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-15925-2015, 2015
Manuscript not accepted for further review
E. Akoglu, S. Libralato, B. Salihoglu, T. Oguz, and C. Solidoro
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2687–2699, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2687-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2687-2015, 2015
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Ecosystem-based marine management requires coupling/integrating multiple models in one unified scheme. The widely adopted Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is potentially a crucial high trophic level component of such schemes. However, being written in Visual Basic, integration of EwE with physical and/or biogeochemical oceanographic models, which were mostly written in Fortran, is complicated. We release a re-coding of EwE in Fortran (EwE-F) so as to facilitate its coupling/integration in such schemes.
G. Cossarini, P. Lazzari, and C. Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 12, 1647–1658, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1647-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1647-2015, 2015
P. Oddo, A. Bonaduce, N. Pinardi, and A. Guarnieri
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 3001–3015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3001-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-3001-2014, 2014
A. Guarnieri, A. J. Souza, N. Pinardi, and P. Traykovski
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-11-1391-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-11-1391-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Lardner
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1851–1869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1851-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1851-2013, 2013
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, and R. Archetti
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1871–1888, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1871-2013, 2013
L. Feudale, A. Manzato, and S. Micheletti
Adv. Sci. Res., 10, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-77-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-77-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Approach: Numerical Models | Properties and processes: Climate and modes of variability
Predictability of marine heatwaves: assessment based on the ECMWF seasonal forecast system
21st century marine climate projections for the NW European Shelf Seas based on a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble
Eric de Boisséson and Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda
Ocean Sci., 20, 265–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-265-2024, 2024
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Marine heatwaves are long periods of extremely warm ocean surface temperatures. Predicting such events a few months in advance would help decision-making to mitigate their impacts on marine ecosystems. This work investigates how well operational seasonal forecasts can predict marine heatwaves. Results show that such events can be predicted a few months in advance in the tropics but that extending the predictability skill to other regions will require additional work on the forecast models.
Jonathan Tinker, Matthew D. Palmer, Benjamin J. Harrison, Enda O'Dea, David M. H. Sexton, Kuniko Yamazaki, and John W. Rostron
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1816, 2023
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The North West European Shelf Seas (NWS) are economically and environmentally important, but poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). We combine use a shelf seas model with GCM output to provide improved 21st century projections of the NWS. We project a NWS warming of 3.11 °C and freshening of −1.01 psu, and provide uncertainty estimates. We calculate the climate signal emergence and consider warming levels. We have released our data for the UKs Climate Change Risk Assessment.
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Álvarez, M., Sanleón-Bartolomé, H., Tanhua, T., Mintrop, L., Luchetta, A., Cantoni, C., Schroeder, K., and Civitarese, G.: The CO2 system in the Mediterranean Sea: a basin wide perspective, Ocean Sci., 10, 69–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-69-2014, 2014.
Alvarez Fanjul, E., Ciliberti, S., and Bahurel, P.: Implementing Operational Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Systems, IOC-UNESCO, Paris, France, 376 pp., Annexes, GOOS-275, https://doi.org/10.48670/ETOOFS, 2022.
Ardhuin, F., Bertotti, L., Bidlot, J. R., Cavaleri, L., Filipetto, V., Lefevre, J. M., and Wittmann, P.: Comparison of wind and wave measurements and models in the Western Mediterranean Sea, Ocean Eng., 34, 526–541, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2006.02.008, 2007.
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Bakker, D. C. E., Pfeil, B. Landa, C. S., Metzl, N., O’Brien, K. M., Olsen, A., Smith, K., Cosca, C., Harasawa, S., Jones, S. D., Nakaoka, S., Nojiri, Y., Schuster, U., Steinhoff, T., Sweeney, C., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., Wada, C., Wanninkhof, R., Alin, S. R., Balestrini, C. F., Barbero, L., Bates, N. R., Bianchi, A. A., Bonou, F., Boutin, J., Bozec, Y., Burger, E. F., Cai, W.-J., Castle, R. D., Chen, L., Chierici, M., Currie, K., Evans, W., Featherstone, C., Feely, R. A., Fransson, A., Goyet, C., Greenwood, N., Gregor, L., Hankin, S., Hardman-Mountford, N. J., Harlay, J., Hauck, J., Hoppema, M., Humphreys, M. P., Hunt, C. W., Huss, B., Ibánhez, J. S. P., Johannessen, T., Keeling, R., Kitidis, V., Körtzinger, A., Kozyr, A., Krasakopoulou, E., Kuwata, A., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lo Monaco, C., Manke, A., Mathis, J. T., Merlivat, L., Millero, F. J., Monteiro, P. M. S., Munro, D. R., Murata, A., Newberger, T., Omar, A. M., Ono, T., Paterson, K., Pearce, D., Pierrot, D., Robbins, L. L., Saito, S., Salisbury, J., Schlitzer, R., Schneider, B., Schweitzer, R., Sieger, R., Skjelvan, I., Sullivan, K. F., Sutherland, S. C., Sutton, A. J., Tadokoro, K., Telszewski, M., Tuma, M., Van Heuven, S. M. A. C., Vandemark, D., Ward, B., Watson, A. J., and Xu, S.: A multi-decade record of high quality fCO2 data in version 3 of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 383–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-383-2016, 2016.
Barton, N., Metzger, E. J., Reynolds, C. A., Ruston, B., Rowley, C., Smedstad, O. M., Ridout, J. A., Wallcraft, A., Frolov, S., Hogan, P., Janiga, M. A., Shriver, J. F., McLay, J., Thoppil, P., Huang, A., Crawford, W., Whitcomb, T., Bishop, C. H., Zamudio, L., and Phelps, M.: The Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability: A new global coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice prediction system designed for daily to subseasonal forecasting, Earth Space Sci., 8, e2020EA001199, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001199, 2021.
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Brassington, G. B.: Forecast Errors, Goodness, and Verification in Ocean Forecasting, J. Mar. Res., 75, 403–433, https://doi.org/10.1357/002224017821836851, 2017.
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Short summary
The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in...
