Articles | Volume 19, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1483-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Oct 2023
Research article |
| 25 Oct 2023
| 25 Oct 2023
The Mediterranean Forecasting System – Part 1: Evolution and performance
Giovanni Coppini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Gianpiero Cossarini
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Stefano Salon
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Gerasimos Korres
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Michalis Ravdas
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Rita Lecci
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Jenny Pistoia
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Anna Chiara Goglio
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Massimiliano Drudi
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Alessandro Grandi
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Ali Aydogdu
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Romain Escudier
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Mercator Océan International, Toulouse, France
Andrea Cipollone
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Vladyslav Lyubartsev
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Antonio Mariani
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Sergio Cretì
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Francesco Palermo
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Matteo Scuro
Ocean Predictions and Applications Division, Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce and Bologna, Italy
Simona Masina
Ocean Modeling and Data Assimilation Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Nadia Pinardi
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce, Italy
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Antonio Navarra
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce, Italy
Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (BIGEA), Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Damiano Delrosso
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Bologna, Italy
Anna Teruzzi
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Valeria Di Biagio
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Giorgio Bolzon
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Laura Feudale
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Gianluca Coidessa
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Carolina Amadio
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Alberto Brosich
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Arnau Miró
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
Eva Alvarez
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Paolo Lazzari
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Cosimo Solidoro
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy
Charikleia Oikonomou
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
Anna Zacharioudaki
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), Anavyssos, Greece
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State Planet, 4-osr8, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-1-2024, 2024
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, Mathilde Cancet, Flora Gues, Emmanuelle Autret, Ali Aydogdu, Lluis Castrillo, Daniele Ciani, Andrea Cipollone, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Alvaro de Pascual-Collar, Vincenzo De Toma, Marion Gehlen, Rianne Giesen, Marie Drevillon, Claudia Fanelli, Kevin Hodges, Simon Jandt-Scheelke, Eric Jansen, Melanie Juza, Ioanna Karagali, Priidik Lagemaa, Vidar Lien, Leonardo Lima, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Ilja Maljutenko, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, Pietro Miraglio, Helen Morrison, Tabea Rebekka Panteleit, Andrea Pisano, Marie-Isabelle Pujol, Urmas Raudsepp, Roshin Raj, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Van Gennip, Pierre Veillard, and Chunxue Yang
State Planet, 4-osr8, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-4-osr8-2-2024, 2024
Dimitra Denaxa, Gerasimos Korres, Sophia Darmaraki, and Maria Hatzaki
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2024-4, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for SP
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The Mediterranean Sea experiences a basin-wide increase in sea surface temperature (SST) and extreme SST occurrences. Stronger warming trends are found in the eastern basin where a decrease in SST variability is also observed. Our findings on the origin of marine heatwave (MHW) trends in the basin suggest that the mean SST warming drives the long-term trends for most MHW properties across the basin except for mean MHW intensity, where interannual variability emerges as the dominant driver.
Bethany McDonagh, Emanuela Clementi, Anna Chiara Goglio, and Nadia Pinardi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1051–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1051-2024, 2024
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Tides in the Mediterranean Sea are typically of low amplitude, but twin experiments with and without tides demonstrate that tides affect the circulation directly at scales away from those of the tides. Analysis of the energy changes due to tides shows that they enhance existing oscillations, and internal tides interact with other internal waves. Tides also increase the mixed layer depth and enhance deep water formation in key regions. Internal tides are widespread in the Mediterranean Sea.
Roberta Benincasa, Giovanni Liguori, Nadia Pinardi, and Hans von Storch
Ocean Sci., 20, 1003–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1003-2024, 2024
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Ocean dynamics result from the interplay of internal processes and external inputs, primarily from the atmosphere. It is crucial to discern between these factors to gauge the ocean's intrinsic predictability and to be able to attribute a signal under study to either external factors or internal variability. Employing a simple analysis, we successfully characterized this variability in the Mediterranean Sea and compared it with the oceanic response induced by atmospheric conditions.
Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Lars Nerger, Anna Teruzzi, Simone Spada, Jozef Skákala, and Stefano Ciavatta
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5619–5639, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5619-2024, 2024
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To understand and predict the ocean’s capacity for carbon sequestration, its ability to supply food, and its response to climate change, we need the best possible estimate of its physical and biogeochemical properties. This is obtained through data assimilation which blends numerical models and observations. We present the Ensemble and Assimilation Tool (EAT), a flexible and efficient test bed that allows any scientist to explore and further develop the state of the art in data assimilation.
Carolina Amadio, Anna Teruzzi, Gloria Pietropolli, Luca Manzoni, Gianluca Coidessa, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Ocean Sci., 20, 689–710, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-689-2024, 2024
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Forecasting of marine biogeochemistry can be improved via the assimilation of observations. Floating buoys provide multivariate information about the status of the ocean interior. Information on the ocean interior can be expanded/augmented by machine learning. In this work, we show the enhanced impact of assimilating new in situ variables (oxygen) and reconstructed variables (nitrate) in the operational forecast system (MedBFM) model of the Mediterranean Sea.
Elena Bianco, Doroteaciro Iovino, Simona Masina, Stefano Materia, and Paolo Ruggieri
The Cryosphere, 18, 2357–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2357-2024, 2024
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Changes in ocean heat transport and surface heat fluxes in recent decades have altered the Arctic Ocean heat budget and caused warming of the upper ocean. Using two eddy-permitting ocean reanalyses, we show that this has important implications for sea ice variability. In the Arctic regional seas, upper-ocean heat content acts as an important precursor for sea ice anomalies on sub-seasonal timescales, and this link has strengthened since the 2000s.
Dimitra Denaxa, Gerasimos Korres, Emmanouil Flaounas, and Maria Hatzaki
Ocean Sci., 20, 433–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-433-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-433-2024, 2024
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This study explores extreme marine summers (EMSs) in the Mediterranean Sea using sea surface temperature (SST) data. EMSs arise mainly due to the warmest summer days being unusually warm. Air–sea heat fluxes drive EMSs in northern regions, where also enhanced marine heatwave conditions are found during EMSs. Long-term SST changes lead to warmer EMSs while not affecting the way daily SST values are organized during EMSs. Findings enhance comprehension of anomalously warm conditions in the basin.
Giulia Bonino, Giuliano Galimberti, Simona Masina, Ronan McAdam, and Emanuela Clementi
Ocean Sci., 20, 417–432, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-417-2024, 2024
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This study employs machine learning to predict marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Mediterranean Sea. MHWs have far-reaching impacts on society and ecosystems. Using data from ESA and ECMWF, the research develops accurate prediction models for sea surface temperature (SST) and MHWs across the region. Notably, machine learning methods outperform existing forecasting systems, showing promise in early MHW predictions. The study also highlights the importance of solar radiation as a predictor of SST.
Skyler Kern, Mary E. McGuinn, Katherine M. Smith, Nadia Pinardi, Kyle E. Niemeyer, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter E. Hamlington
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 621–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-621-2024, 2024
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Computational models are used to simulate the behavior of marine ecosystems. The models often have unknown parameters that need to be calibrated to accurately represent observational data. Here, we propose a novel approach to simultaneously determine a large set of parameters for a one-dimensional model of a marine ecosystem in the surface ocean at two contrasting sites. By utilizing global and local optimization techniques, we estimate many parameters in a computationally efficient manner.
Eva Álvarez, Gianpiero Cossarini, Anna Teruzzi, Jorn Bruggeman, Karsten Bolding, Stefano Ciavatta, Vincenzo Vellucci, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, David Antoine, and Paolo Lazzari
Biogeosciences, 20, 4591–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4591-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4591-2023, 2023
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Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) interacts with the ambient light and gives the waters of the Mediterranean Sea their colour. We propose a novel parameterization of the CDOM cycle, whose parameter values have been optimized by using the data of the monitoring site BOUSSOLE. Nutrient and light limitations for locally produced CDOM caused aCDOM(λ) to covary with chlorophyll, while the above-average CDOM concentrations observed at this site were maintained by allochthonous sources.
Simone Spada, Anna Teruzzi, Stefano Maset, Stefano Salon, Cosimo Solidoro, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-170, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-170, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
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In geosciences, data assimilation (DA) combines modeled dynamics and observations to reduce simulation uncertainties. Uncertainties can be dynamically and effectively estimated in ensemble DA methods. With respect to current techniques, the novel GHOSH ensemble DA scheme is designed to improve accuracy by reaching a higher approximation order, without increasing computational costs, as demonstrated in idealized Lorenz96 tests and in realistic simulations of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry
Doroteaciro Iovino, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6127–6159, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6127-2023, 2023
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This paper describes the model performance of three global ocean–sea ice configurations, from non-eddying (1°) to eddy-rich (1/16°) resolutions. Model simulations are obtained following the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP2) protocol. We compare key global climate variables across the three models and against observations, emphasizing the relative advantages and disadvantages of running forced ocean–sea ice models at higher resolution.
Valeria Di Biagio, Riccardo Martellucci, Milena Menna, Anna Teruzzi, Carolina Amadio, Elena Mauri, and Gianpiero Cossarini
State Planet, 1-osr7, 10, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-10-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-10-2023, 2023
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Oxygen is essential to all aerobic organisms, and its content in the marine environment is continuously under assessment. By integrating observations with a model, we describe the dissolved oxygen variability in a sensitive Mediterranean area in the period 1999–2021 and ascribe it to multiple acting physical and biological drivers. Moreover, the reduction recognized in 2021, apparently also due to other mechanisms, requires further monitoring in light of its possible impacts.
Ali Aydogdu, Pietro Miraglio, Romain Escudier, Emanuela Clementi, and Simona Masina
State Planet, 1-osr7, 6, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-6-2023, 2023
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This paper investigates the salt content, salinity anomaly and trend in the Mediterranean Sea using observational and reanalysis products. The salt content increases overall, while negative salinity anomalies appear in the western basin, especially around the upwelling regions. There is a large spread in the salinity estimates that is reduced with the emergence of the Argo profilers.
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Andrea Cipollone, Deep Sankar Banerjee, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ali Aydogdu, and Simona Masina
Ocean Sci., 19, 1375–1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1375-2023, 2023
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Sea-ice volume is characterized by low predictability compared to the sea ice area or the extent. A joint initialization of the thickness and concentration using satellite data could improve the predictive power, although it is still absent in the present global analysis–reanalysis systems. This study shows a scheme to correct the two features together that can be easily extended to include ocean variables. The impact of such a joint initialization is shown and compared among different set-ups.
Sukun Cheng, Yumeng Chen, Ali Aydoğdu, Laurent Bertino, Alberto Carrassi, Pierre Rampal, and Christopher K. R. T. Jones
The Cryosphere, 17, 1735–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1735-2023, 2023
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This work studies a novel application of combining a Lagrangian sea ice model, neXtSIM, and data assimilation. It uses a deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to incorporate satellite-observed ice concentration and thickness in simulations. The neXtSIM Lagrangian nature is handled using a remapping strategy on a common homogeneous mesh. The ensemble is formed by perturbing air–ocean boundary conditions and ice cohesion. Thanks to data assimilation, winter Arctic sea ice forecasting is enhanced.
Alexandre Mignot, Hervé Claustre, Gianpiero Cossarini, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Elodie Gutknecht, Julien Lamouroux, Paolo Lazzari, Coralie Perruche, Stefano Salon, Raphaëlle Sauzède, Vincent Taillandier, and Anna Teruzzi
Biogeosciences, 20, 1405–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1405-2023, 2023
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Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are becoming a major tool to detect and predict the impact of climate change on marine resources and monitor ocean health. Here, we demonstrate the use of the global array of BGC-Argo floats for the assessment of biogeochemical models. We first detail the handling of the BGC-Argo data set for model assessment purposes. We then present 23 assessment metrics to quantify the consistency of BGC model simulations with respect to BGC-Argo data.
Juan Pablo Almeida, Lorenzo Menichetti, Alf Ekblad, Nicholas P. Rosenstock, and Håkan Wallander
Biogeosciences, 20, 1443–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1443-2023, 2023
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In forests, trees allocate a significant amount of carbon belowground to support mycorrhizal symbiosis. In northern forests nitrogen normally regulates this allocation and consequently mycorrhizal fungi growth. In this study we demonstrate that in a conifer forest from Sweden, fungal growth is regulated by phosphorus instead of nitrogen. This is probably due to an increase in nitrogen deposition to soils caused by decades of human pollution that has altered the ecosystem nutrient regime.
Giulia Bonino, Simona Masina, Giuliano Galimberti, and Matteo Moretti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1269–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1269-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1269-2023, 2023
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We present a unique observational dataset of marine heat wave (MHW) macroevents and their characteristics over southern Europe and western Asian (SEWA) basins in the SEWA-MHW dataset. This dataset is the first effort in the literature to archive extremely hot sea surface temperature macroevents. The advantages of the availability of SEWA-MHWs are avoiding the waste of computational resources to detect MHWs and building a consistent framework which would increase comparability among MHW studies.
Valeria Di Biagio, Stefano Salon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 19, 5553–5574, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5553-2022, 2022
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The amount of dissolved oxygen in the ocean is the result of interacting physical and biological processes. Oxygen vertical profiles show a subsurface maximum in a large part of the ocean. We used a numerical model to map this subsurface maximum in the Mediterranean Sea and to link local differences in its properties to the driving processes. This emerging feature can help the marine ecosystem functioning to be better understood, also under the impacts of climate change.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
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The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Charikleia L. G. Oikonomou, Dimitra Denaxa, and Gerasimos Korres
State Planet Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2022-16, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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We explore the wave energy resource within the Mediterranean basin, along with the dominant wave regime. Results suggest that although the basin is not characterised by high energy potential, it could serve as a deployment zone for low-power devices due to low peak period variability and high site accessibility levels. Results suggest that further research is required to determine the dominant wave regime, as the high contribution of swell partitions hints the occurrence of mixed sea states.
Giulia Bonino, Doroteaciro Iovino, Laurent Brodeau, and Simona Masina
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6873–6889, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6873-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6873-2022, 2022
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The sea surface temperature (SST) is highly influenced by the transfer of energy driven by turbulent air–sea fluxes (TASFs). In the NEMO ocean general circulation model, TASFs are computed by means of bulk formulas. Bulk formulas require the choice of a given bulk parameterization, which influences the magnitudes of the TASFs. Our results show that parameterization-related SST differences are primarily sensitive to the wind stress differences across parameterizations.
Marco Reale, Gianpiero Cossarini, Paolo Lazzari, Tomas Lovato, Giorgio Bolzon, Simona Masina, Cosimo Solidoro, and Stefano Salon
Biogeosciences, 19, 4035–4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4035-2022, 2022
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Future projections under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry at the end of the 21st century show different levels of decline in nutrients, oxygen and biomasses and an acidification of the water column. The signal intensity is stronger under RCP8.5 and in the eastern Mediterranean. Under RCP4.5, after the second half of the 21st century, biogeochemical variables show a recovery of the values observed at the beginning of the investigated period.
Ginevra Rosati, Donata Canu, Paolo Lazzari, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 19, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-3663-2022, 2022
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Methylmercury (MeHg) is produced and bioaccumulated in marine food webs, posing concerns for human exposure through seafood consumption. We modeled and analyzed the fate of MeHg in the lower food web of the Mediterranean Sea. The modeled spatial–temporal distribution of plankton bioaccumulation differs from the distribution of MeHg in surface water. We also show that MeHg exposure concentrations in temperate waters can be lowered by winter convection, which is declining due to climate change.
Giorgio Micaletto, Ivano Barletta, Silvia Mocavero, Ivan Federico, Italo Epicoco, Giorgia Verri, Giovanni Coppini, Pasquale Schiano, Giovanni Aloisio, and Nadia Pinardi
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6025–6046, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6025-2022, 2022
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The full exploitation of supercomputing architectures requires a deep revision of the current climate models. This paper presents the parallelization of the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules). Optimized numerical libraries were used to partition the model domain and solve the sparse linear system of equations in parallel. The performance assessment demonstrates a good level of scalability with a realistic configuration used as a benchmark.
Enrico Scoccimarro, Daniele Peano, Silvio Gualdi, Alessio Bellucci, Tomas Lovato, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, and Antonio Navarra
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1841–1854, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1841-2022, 2022
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This study evaluated the ability of the CMCC-CM2 climate model participating to the last CMIP6 effort, in representing extreme events of precipitation and temperature at the daily and 6-hourly frequencies. The 1/4° resolution version of the atmospheric model provides better results than the version at 1° resolution for temperature extremes, at both time frequencies. For precipitation extremes, especially at the daily time frequency, the higher resolution does not improve model results.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
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This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Anna Teruzzi, Giorgio Bolzon, Laura Feudale, and Gianpiero Cossarini
Biogeosciences, 18, 6147–6166, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6147-2021, 2021
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During summer, maxima of phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration (DCM) occur in the subsurface of the Mediterranean Sea and can play a relevant role in carbon sequestration into the ocean interior. A numerical model based on in situ and satellite observations provides insights into the range of DCM conditions across the relatively small Mediterranean Sea and shows a western DCM that is 25 % shallower and with a higher phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration than in the eastern Mediterranean.
Paolo Lazzari, Stefano Salon, Elena Terzić, Watson W. Gregg, Fabrizio D'Ortenzio, Vincenzo Vellucci, Emanuele Organelli, and David Antoine
Ocean Sci., 17, 675–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-675-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-675-2021, 2021
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Multispectral optical sensors and models are increasingly adopted to study marine systems. In this work, bio-optical mooring and biogeochemical Argo float optical observations are combined with the Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) to analyse the variability of sunlight at the sea surface. We show that the model skill in simulating data varies according to the wavelength of light and temporal scale considered and that it is significantly affected by cloud dynamics.
Katherine M. Smith, Skyler Kern, Peter E. Hamlington, Marco Zavatarelli, Nadia Pinardi, Emily F. Klee, and Kyle E. Niemeyer
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2419–2442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2419-2021, 2021
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We present a newly developed reduced-order biogeochemical flux model that is complex and flexible enough to capture open-ocean ecosystem dynamics but reduced enough to incorporate into highly resolved numerical simulations with limited additional computational cost. The model provides improved correlations between model output and field data, indicating that significant improvements in the reproduction of real-world data can be achieved with a small number of variables.
Giulia Bonino, Elisa Lovecchio, Nicolas Gruber, Matthias Münnich, Simona Masina, and Doroteaciro Iovino
Biogeosciences, 18, 2429–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2429-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2429-2021, 2021
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Seasonal variations of processes such as upwelling and biological production that happen along the northwestern African coast can modulate the temporal variability of the biological activity of the adjacent open North Atlantic hundreds of kilometers away from the coast thanks to the lateral transport of coastal organic carbon. This happens with a temporal delay, which is smaller than a season up to roughly 500 km from the coast due to the intense transport by small-scale filaments.
Elena Terzić, Arnau Miró, Paolo Lazzari, Emanuele Organelli, and Fabrizio D'Ortenzio
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-473, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
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This study integrates numerical simulations (using a multi-spectral optical model) with in-situ measurements of floats and remotely sensed observations from satellites. It aims at improving our current understanding of the impact that different constituents (such as pure water, colored dissolved organic matter, detritus and phytoplankton) have on the in-water light propagation.
Valeria Di Biagio, Gianpiero Cossarini, Stefano Salon, and Cosimo Solidoro
Biogeosciences, 17, 5967–5988, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5967-2020, 2020
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Events that influence the functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems are of interest in relation to a changing climate. We propose a method to identify and characterise
wavesof extreme events affecting marine ecosystems for multi-week periods over wide areas. Our method can be applied to suitable ecosystem variables and has been used to describe different kinds of extreme event waves of phytoplankton chlorophyll in the Mediterranean Sea, by analysing the output from a high-resolution model.
Giuliana Rossi, Gualtiero Böhm, Angela Saraò, Diego Cotterle, Lorenzo Facchin, Paolo Giurco, Renata Giulia Lucchi, Maria Elena Musco, Francesca Petrera, Stefano Picotti, and Stefano Salon
Geosci. Commun., 3, 381–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-381-2020, 2020
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We organized an exhibition on the climate crisis using high-quality images shot by scientists, who are amateur photographers, during their campaigns in glacier regions. Working-age people, attracted by the gorgeous images, received the message that such beauty is in danger of vanishing. Twice, the visitors could talk directly with the experts to discuss geoscience, photography, and aesthetic choices and, of course, climate change, a problem that each of us has to play a part in to solve.
Hiroyuki Tsujino, L. Shogo Urakawa, Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Alistair J. Adcroft, Arthur E. Amaral, Thomas Arsouze, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Claus W. Böning, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Sergey Danilov, Raphael Dussin, Eleftheria Exarchou, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Doroteaciro Iovino, Who M. Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, Vladimir Lapin, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Keith Lindsay, Hailong Liu, Matthew C. Long, Yoshiki Komuro, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Aleksi Nummelin, Jan Klaus Rieck, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Markus Scheinert, Valentina Sicardi, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tatsuo Suzuki, Hiroaki Tatebe, Qiang Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Zipeng Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3643–3708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, 2020
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The OMIP-2 framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations is assessed by comparing multi-model means from 11 CMIP6-class global ocean–sea-ice models calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations. Many features are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet key improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2 are also identified. Thus, the present assessment justifies that future ocean–sea-ice model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.
Cited articles
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Short summary
The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Service.
The paper presents the Mediterranean Forecasting System evolution and performance developed in...
