Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
Ocean Sci., 18, 1093–1107, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022
Ocean Sci., 18, 1093–1107, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022
Research article
27 Jul 2022
Research article | 27 Jul 2022

Attributing decadal climate variability in coastal sea-level trends

Sam Royston et al.

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Short summary
Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes and increases uncertainty in observed trend and acceleration estimates. We use numerical ocean models to determine the magnitude of decadal variability we might expect in sea-level trends at coastal locations around the world, resulting from natural, internal variability. A proportion of that variability can be replicated from known climate modes, giving a range to add to short- to mid-term projections of regional sea-level trends.