Ocean Science
Ocean Science
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Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
Research article
 | 
27 Jul 2022
Research article |  | 27 Jul 2022

Attributing decadal climate variability in coastal sea-level trends

Sam Royston, Rory J. Bingham, and Jonathan L. Bamber

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Latest update: 23 Oct 2025
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Short summary
Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes and increases uncertainty in observed trend and acceleration estimates. We use numerical ocean models to determine the magnitude of decadal variability we might expect in sea-level trends at coastal locations around the world, resulting from natural, internal variability. A proportion of that variability can be replicated from known climate modes, giving a range to add to short- to mid-term projections of regional sea-level trends.
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