Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021
OS Letters
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02 Feb 2021
OS Letters | Highlight paper |  | 02 Feb 2021

The transient sensitivity of sea level rise

Aslak Grinsted and Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen

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Cited articles

Ablain, M., Meyssignac, B., Zawadzki, L., Jugier, R., Ribes, A., Spada, G., Benveniste, J., Cazenave, A., and Picot, N.: Uncertainty in satellite estimates of global mean sea-level changes, trend and acceleration, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1189–1202, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1189-2019, 2019. 
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195–11200, 2019. 
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Clark, P. U., Mix, A. C., Eby, M., Levermann, A., Rogelj, J., Nauels, A., and Wrathall, D. J.: Sea-level commitment as a gauge for climate policy, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 653–655, 2018. 
Dangendorf, S., Marcos, M., Wöppelmann, G., Conrad, C. P., Frederikse, T., and Riva, R.: Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 5946–5951, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1616007114, 2017. 
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Short summary
As we warm our planet, oceans expand, ice on land melts, and sea levels rise. On century timescales, we find that the sea level response to warming can be characterized by a single metric: the transient sea level sensitivity. Historical sea level exhibits substantially higher sensitivity than model-based estimates of future climates in authoritative climate assessments, implying recent projections could well underestimate the likely sea level rise by the end of this century.