Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The transient sensitivity of sea level rise
Aslak Grinsted
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of
Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of
Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre,
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
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Mikkel Langgaard Lauritzen, Anne Munck Solgaard, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Aslak Grindsted, Brice Noël, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, 2024
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We study the Holocene period, which started about 11,700 years ago, through 841 computer simulations to better understand the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We accurately match historical surface elevation records, verifying our model. The simulations show that an ice bridge that used to connect the Greenland ice sheet to Canada collapsed around 4,900 years ago and still influences the ice sheet. Over the past 500 years, the Greenland ice sheet has contributed 12 millimeters to sea levels.
Aslak Grinsted, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Ruth Mottram, Anne Munck Solgaard, Joachim Mathiesen, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
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Ice fracture can cause glacier crevassing and calving. These natural hazards can also modulate the flow and evolution of ice sheets. In a new study, we use a new high-resolution dataset to determine a new failure criterion for glacier ice. Surprisingly, the strength of ice depends on the mode of deformation, and this has potential implications for the currently used flow law of ice.
Falk M. Oraschewski and Aslak Grinsted
The Cryosphere, 16, 2683–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2683-2022, 2022
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Old snow (denoted as firn) accumulates in the interior of ice sheets and gets densified into glacial ice. Typically, this densification is assumed to only depend on temperature and accumulation rate. However, it has been observed that stretching of the firn by horizontal flow also enhances this process. Here, we show how to include this effect in classical firn models. With the model we confirm that softening of the firn controls firn densification in areas with strong horizontal stretching.
Ann-Sofie Priergaard Zinck and Aslak Grinsted
The Cryosphere, 16, 1399–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1399-2022, 2022
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The Müller Ice Cap will soon set the scene for a new drilling project. To obtain an ice core with stratified layers and a good time resolution, thickness estimates are necessary for the planning. Here we present a new and fast method of estimating ice thicknesses from sparse data and compare it to an existing ice flow model. We find that the new semi-empirical method is insensitive to mass balance, is computationally fast, and provides good fits when compared to radar measurements.
Tamara Annina Gerber, Christine Schøtt Hvidberg, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Steven Franke, Giulia Sinnl, Aslak Grinsted, Daniela Jansen, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
The Cryosphere, 15, 3655–3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, 2021
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We simulate the ice flow in the onset region of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to determine the source area and past accumulation rates of ice found in the EastGRIP ice core. This information is required to correct for bias in ice-core records introduced by the upstream flow effects. Our results reveal that the increasing accumulation rate with increasing upstream distance is predominantly responsible for the constant annual layer thicknesses observed in the upper 900 m of the ice core.
Christine S. Hvidberg, Aslak Grinsted, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Anders Kusk, Jonas Kvist Andersen, Niklas Neckel, Anne Solgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Helle Astrid Kjær, and Paul Vallelonga
The Cryosphere, 14, 3487–3502, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3487-2020, 2020
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The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km from its onset in the interior of Greenland to the coast. Several maps of surface velocity and topography in Greenland exist, but accuracy is limited due to the lack of validation data. Here we present results from a 5-year GPS survey in an interior section of NEGIS. We use the data to assess a list of satellite-derived ice velocity and surface elevation products and discuss the implications for the ice stream flow in the area.
Mikkel Langgaard Lauritzen, Anne Munck Solgaard, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Bo Møllesøe Vinther, Aslak Grindsted, Brice Noël, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2223, 2024
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We study the Holocene period, which started about 11,700 years ago, through 841 computer simulations to better understand the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We accurately match historical surface elevation records, verifying our model. The simulations show that an ice bridge that used to connect the Greenland ice sheet to Canada collapsed around 4,900 years ago and still influences the ice sheet. Over the past 500 years, the Greenland ice sheet has contributed 12 millimeters to sea levels.
Aslak Grinsted, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, Ruth Mottram, Anne Munck Solgaard, Joachim Mathiesen, and Christine Schøtt Hvidberg
The Cryosphere, 18, 1947–1957, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1947-2024, 2024
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Ice fracture can cause glacier crevassing and calving. These natural hazards can also modulate the flow and evolution of ice sheets. In a new study, we use a new high-resolution dataset to determine a new failure criterion for glacier ice. Surprisingly, the strength of ice depends on the mode of deformation, and this has potential implications for the currently used flow law of ice.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
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Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Falk M. Oraschewski and Aslak Grinsted
The Cryosphere, 16, 2683–2700, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2683-2022, 2022
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Old snow (denoted as firn) accumulates in the interior of ice sheets and gets densified into glacial ice. Typically, this densification is assumed to only depend on temperature and accumulation rate. However, it has been observed that stretching of the firn by horizontal flow also enhances this process. Here, we show how to include this effect in classical firn models. With the model we confirm that softening of the firn controls firn densification in areas with strong horizontal stretching.
Ann-Sofie Priergaard Zinck and Aslak Grinsted
The Cryosphere, 16, 1399–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1399-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1399-2022, 2022
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The Müller Ice Cap will soon set the scene for a new drilling project. To obtain an ice core with stratified layers and a good time resolution, thickness estimates are necessary for the planning. Here we present a new and fast method of estimating ice thicknesses from sparse data and compare it to an existing ice flow model. We find that the new semi-empirical method is insensitive to mass balance, is computationally fast, and provides good fits when compared to radar measurements.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
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We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Tamara Annina Gerber, Christine Schøtt Hvidberg, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Steven Franke, Giulia Sinnl, Aslak Grinsted, Daniela Jansen, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
The Cryosphere, 15, 3655–3679, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3655-2021, 2021
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We simulate the ice flow in the onset region of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to determine the source area and past accumulation rates of ice found in the EastGRIP ice core. This information is required to correct for bias in ice-core records introduced by the upstream flow effects. Our results reveal that the increasing accumulation rate with increasing upstream distance is predominantly responsible for the constant annual layer thicknesses observed in the upper 900 m of the ice core.
Torben Schmith, Peter Thejll, Peter Berg, Fredrik Boberg, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Bo Christiansen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, and Christian Steger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-273-2021, 2021
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European extreme precipitation is expected to change in the future; this is based on climate model projections. But, since climate models have errors, projections are uncertain. We study this uncertainty in the projections by comparing results from an ensemble of 19 climate models. Results can be used to give improved estimates of future extreme precipitation for Europe.
Christine S. Hvidberg, Aslak Grinsted, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Anders Kusk, Jonas Kvist Andersen, Niklas Neckel, Anne Solgaard, Nanna B. Karlsson, Helle Astrid Kjær, and Paul Vallelonga
The Cryosphere, 14, 3487–3502, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3487-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3487-2020, 2020
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The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km from its onset in the interior of Greenland to the coast. Several maps of surface velocity and topography in Greenland exist, but accuracy is limited due to the lack of validation data. Here we present results from a 5-year GPS survey in an interior section of NEGIS. We use the data to assess a list of satellite-derived ice velocity and surface elevation products and discuss the implications for the ice stream flow in the area.
M. A. D. Larsen, J. C. Refsgaard, M. Drews, M. B. Butts, K. H. Jensen, J. H. Christensen, and O. B. Christensen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4733–4749, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4733-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4733-2014, 2014
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The paper presents results from a novel dynamical coupling between a hydrology model and a regional climate model developed to include a wider range of processes, land-surface/atmosphere interaction and finer spatio-temporal scales. The coupled performance was largely dependent on the data exchange frequency between the two model components, and longer-term precipitation was somewhat improved by the coupled system whereas the short-term dynamics for a range of variables was less accurate.
Related subject area
Approach: Numerical Models | Properties and processes: Sea level | Depth range: Surface | Geographical range: All Geographic Regions | Challenges: Oceans and climate
Improving statistical projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change using pattern recognition techniques
Attributing decadal climate variability in coastal sea-level trends
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Víctor Malagón-Santos, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Tim H. J. Hermans, Sönke Dangendorf, Marta Marcos, and Nicola Maher
Ocean Sci., 19, 499–515, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-499-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-499-2023, 2023
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Climate change will alter heat and freshwater fluxes as well as ocean circulation, driving local changes in sea level. This sea-level change component is known as ocean dynamic sea level (DSL), and it is usually projected using computationally expensive global climate models. Statistical models are a cheaper alternative for projecting DSL but may contain significant errors. Here, we partly remove those errors (driven by internal climate variability) by using pattern recognition techniques.
Sam Royston, Rory J. Bingham, and Jonathan L. Bamber
Ocean Sci., 18, 1093–1107, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1093-2022, 2022
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Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes and increases uncertainty in observed trend and acceleration estimates. We use numerical ocean models to determine the magnitude of decadal variability we might expect in sea-level trends at coastal locations around the world, resulting from natural, internal variability. A proportion of that variability can be replicated from known climate modes, giving a range to add to short- to mid-term projections of regional sea-level trends.
Patrick Wagner, Markus Scheinert, and Claus W. Böning
Ocean Sci., 17, 1103–1113, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1103-2021, 2021
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We analyse the importance of local heat and freshwater fluxes for sea level variability in the tropical Pacific on interannual to decadal timescales by using a global ocean model. Our results suggest that they amplify sea level variability in the eastern part of the basin and dampen it in the central and western part of the domain. We demonstrate that the oceanic response allows local sea level anomalies to propagate zonally which enables remote effects of local heat and freshwater fluxes.
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Short summary
As we warm our planet, oceans expand, ice on land melts, and sea levels rise. On century timescales, we find that the sea level response to warming can be characterized by a single metric: the transient sea level sensitivity. Historical sea level exhibits substantially higher sensitivity than model-based estimates of future climates in authoritative climate assessments, implying recent projections could well underestimate the likely sea level rise by the end of this century.
As we warm our planet, oceans expand, ice on land melts, and sea levels rise. On century...