Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-651-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-651-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The long-term variability of extreme sea levels in the German Bight
Andreas Lang
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
International Max Planck Research
School on Earth System Modelling (IMPRS-ESM), 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Long-term climate change impacts on regional sterodynamic sea level statistics analyzed from the MPI-ESM large ensemble simulation S. Nandini-Weiss et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06982-6
- Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels C. Tebaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1
- Rising extreme sea levels in the German Bight under enhanced $${{\mathrm {CO}}_2}$$ levels: a regionalized large ensemble approach for the North Sea A. Lang & U. Mikolajewicz https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05357-5
- Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900 S. Dangendorf et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02659-0
- Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity C. Dieterich et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019
- Projections of changes in extreme storm surges for European coasts using statistical downscaling M. Apecechea et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2269-2026
- RCP8.5-projected changes in German Bight storm surge characteristics from regionalized ensemble simulations for the end of the twenty-first century B. Mayer et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.992119
- Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100 H. Meier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022
- Extreme climate change hazards and impacts on European coastal cities: A review E. Laino & G. Iglesias https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113587
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate M. Hieronymus & O. Kalén https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8
- Natural variability masks climate change sea surface temperature signals: a comparison between the Baltic Sea, North Sea and North Atlantic Ocean H. Poul et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07538-y
- Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions M. Tadesse et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x
- North Sea salt-marsh archives trace past storminess and climate variability D. Bunzel et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103403
- Revisiting the link between extreme sea levels and climate variability using a spline-based non-stationary extreme value analysis J. Rohmer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100352
- Understanding the Natural Variability of Still Water Levels in the San Francisco Bay Over the Past 500 yr: Implications for Future Coastal Flood Risk S. Mukhopadhyay et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC019012
- Determination of Current and Future Extreme Sea Levels at the Local Scale in Port-Bouët Bay (Côte d’Ivoire) M. Kouakou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040756
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Long-term climate change impacts on regional sterodynamic sea level statistics analyzed from the MPI-ESM large ensemble simulation S. Nandini-Weiss et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06982-6
- Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels C. Tebaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1
- Rising extreme sea levels in the German Bight under enhanced $${{\mathrm {CO}}_2}$$ levels: a regionalized large ensemble approach for the North Sea A. Lang & U. Mikolajewicz https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05357-5
- Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900 S. Dangendorf et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02659-0
- Extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea under climate change scenarios – Part 1: Model validation and sensitivity C. Dieterich et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1399-2019
- Projections of changes in extreme storm surges for European coasts using statistical downscaling M. Apecechea et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2269-2026
- RCP8.5-projected changes in German Bight storm surge characteristics from regionalized ensemble simulations for the end of the twenty-first century B. Mayer et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.992119
- Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100 H. Meier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022
- Extreme climate change hazards and impacts on European coastal cities: A review E. Laino & G. Iglesias https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113587
- Sea Level Rise in Europe: Observations and projections A. Melet et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-4-2024
- Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate M. Hieronymus & O. Kalén https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8
- Natural variability masks climate change sea surface temperature signals: a comparison between the Baltic Sea, North Sea and North Atlantic Ocean H. Poul et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07538-y
- Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions M. Tadesse et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x
- North Sea salt-marsh archives trace past storminess and climate variability D. Bunzel et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103403
- Revisiting the link between extreme sea levels and climate variability using a spline-based non-stationary extreme value analysis J. Rohmer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100352
- Understanding the Natural Variability of Still Water Levels in the San Francisco Bay Over the Past 500 yr: Implications for Future Coastal Flood Risk S. Mukhopadhyay et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC019012
- Determination of Current and Future Extreme Sea Levels at the Local Scale in Port-Bouët Bay (Côte d’Ivoire) M. Kouakou et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11040756
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 05 Sep 2026
Short summary
Here we investigate the occurrence of extreme storm surges in the southern German Bight and their associated large-scale forcing mechanisms using climate model simulations covering the last 1000 years. We find that extreme storm surges are characterized by a large internal variability that masks potential links to external climate forcing or background sea level fluctuations; existing estimates of extreme sea levels based on short data records thus fail to account for their full variability.
Here we investigate the occurrence of extreme storm surges in the southern German Bight and...