Validation metrics for ice edge position forecasts

Melsom, Arne; Palerme, Cyril; Müller, Malte

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-615-2019

Articles | Volume 15, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-615-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS):...

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-615-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 3

Research article

|

29 May 2019

Research article |

| 29 May 2019

Validation metrics for ice edge position forecasts

Arne Melsom, Cyril Palerme, and Malte Müller

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-615-2019-supplement

Data sets

Copernicus – Marine environment monitoring service E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information/Norwegian Ice Service – MET Norway http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/?option=com_csw&view=details&product_id=SEAICE_ARC_SEAICE_L4_NRT_OBSERVATIONS_011_002

Copernicus – Marine environment monitoring service E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information/EUMETSAT http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/?option=com_csw&view=details&product_id=SEAICE_GLO_SEAICE_L4_NRT_OBSERVATIONS_011_001

TOPAZ4 Ocean Physical Fields Norwegian Meteorological Institute http://thredds.met.no/thredds/myocean/ARC-MFC/myoceanv2-class1-arctic.html

Short summary

Retreating sea ice in the Arctic Ocean gives rise to increased naval traffic with shorter navigation distances. Hence, information about the position of the sea ice edge is crucial for safe navigation. In the present study we explore methods for examining the quality of sea ice edge forecasts. We conclude that the forecast quality can be monitored with results from a set of four quantities. We also recommend the use of maps which display discrepancies in the positions of the sea ice edge.