Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-391-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-391-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Seasonal renewal time variability in the Curonian Lagoon caused by atmospheric and hydrographical forcing
Georg Umgiesser
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Marine Sciences – National Research Council (ISMAR-CNR), Castello 2737/f, 30122 Venice, Italy
Open Access Center for Marine Research, Klaipėda University, H. Manto str. 84, 92294 Klaipėda, Lithuania
Petras Zemlys
Open Access Center for Marine Research, Klaipėda University, H. Manto str. 84, 92294 Klaipėda, Lithuania
Ali Erturk
Istanbul University, Faculty of Fisheries, Department of Freshwater Biology, Ordu Cad. No: 200 Laleli/İstanbul, 34130 Istanbul, Turkey
Arturas Razinkova-Baziukas
Open Access Center for Marine Research, Klaipėda University, H. Manto str. 84, 92294 Klaipėda, Lithuania
Jovita Mėžinė
Open Access Center for Marine Research, Klaipėda University, H. Manto str. 84, 92294 Klaipėda, Lithuania
Christian Ferrarin
Institute of Marine Sciences – National Research Council (ISMAR-CNR), Castello 2737/f, 30122 Venice, Italy
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We propose a discrete multilayer shallow water model based on z-layers which, thanks to the insertion and removal of surface layers, can deal with an arbitrarily large tidal oscillation independently of the vertical resolution. The algorithm is based on a two-step procedure used in numerical simulations with moving boundaries (grid movement followed by a grid topology change, that is, the insertion/removal of surface layers), which avoids the appearance of very thin surface layers.
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The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
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Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 645–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, 2021
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Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
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Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
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Sea level rise has major impacts in Europe, which vary from place to place and in time, depending on the source of the impacts. Flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion lead, via different pathways, to various consequences for coastal regions across Europe. This causes damage to assets, the environment, and people for all three categories of impacts discussed in this paper. The paper provides an overview of the various impacts in Europe.
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Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.
Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Rasa Idzelytė, Jūratė Lesutienė, Ali Ertürk, and Georg Umgiesser
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This study advances the understanding of climate projection variability in the Nemunas River, Curonian Lagoon, and southeastern Baltic Sea continuum by analyzing a subset of climate models with a focus on a coupled ocean and drainage basin model. This study investigates the variability and trends in environmental parameters, such as water fluxes, timing, nutrient load, water temperature, ice cover, and saltwater intrusions in Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.
Luca Arpaia, Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
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We propose a discrete multilayer shallow water model based on z-layers which, thanks to the insertion and removal of surface layers, can deal with an arbitrarily large tidal oscillation independently of the vertical resolution. The algorithm is based on a two-step procedure used in numerical simulations with moving boundaries (grid movement followed by a grid topology change, that is, the insertion/removal of surface layers), which avoids the appearance of very thin surface layers.
Rasa Idzelytė, Natalja Čerkasova, Jovita Mėžinė, Toma Dabulevičienė, Artūras Razinkovas-Baziukas, Ali Ertürk, and Georg Umgiesser
Ocean Sci., 19, 1047–1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1047-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1047-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work is focused on the impacts of climate change on a complex water flow system in the southeastern (SE) Baltic Sea, covering the Nemunas river basin and Curonian Lagoon. The results show that lagoon and sea will receive more water coming from the Nemunas. This will lead to a decreased frequency of saltwater inflow to the lagoon, and water will take less time to renew. Water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the SE Baltic Sea will increase steadily, and salinity values will decrease.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
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The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Georg Umgiesser, Andrea Bonometto, and Elisa Coraci
Ocean Sci., 19, 559–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-559-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-559-2023, 2023
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This work uses a hydrodynamic model which assimilates in situ data to reproduce tides, surges, and seiches in the Mediterranean basin. Furthermore, we study the periods of the barotropic modes of the Mediterranean and Adriatic basins. This research aims to improve the forecasting and reanalysis for operational warning and climatological studies. It aims also to reach a better knowledge of these sea level components in this area.
Manuel Aghito, Loris Calgaro, Knut-Frode Dagestad, Christian Ferrarin, Antonio Marcomini, Øyvind Breivik, and Lars Robert Hole
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2477–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2477-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2477-2023, 2023
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The newly developed ChemicalDrift model can simulate the transport and fate of chemicals in the ocean and in coastal regions. The model combines ocean physics, including transport due to currents, turbulence due to surface winds and the sinking of particles to the sea floor, with ocean chemistry, such as the partitioning, the degradation and the evaporation of chemicals. The model will be utilized for risk assessment of ocean and sea-floor contamination from pollutants emitted from shipping.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
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Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2705-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Christian Ferrarin, Marco Bajo, and Georg Umgiesser
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 645–659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-645-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The problem of the optimization of ocean monitoring networks is tackled through the implementation of data assimilation techniques in a numerical model. The methodology has been applied to the tide gauge network in the Lagoon of Venice (Italy). The data assimilation methods allow identifying the minimum number of stations and their distribution that correctly represent the lagoon's dynamics. The methodology is easily exportable to other environments and can be extended to other variables.
Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Valentini, Martin Vodopivec, Dijana Klaric, Giovanni Massaro, Marco Bajo, Francesca De Pascalis, Amedeo Fadini, Michol Ghezzo, Stefano Menegon, Lidia Bressan, Silvia Unguendoli, Anja Fettich, Jure Jerman, Matjaz̆ Ličer, Lidija Fustar, Alvise Papa, and Enrico Carraro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 73–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-73-2020, 2020
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Here we present a shared and interoperable system to allow a better exchange of and elaboration on information related to sea storms among countries. The proposed integrated web system (IWS) is a combination of a common data system for sharing ocean observations and forecasts, a multi-model ensemble system, a geoportal, and interactive geo-visualization tools. This study describes the application of the developed system to the exceptional storm event of 29 October 2018.
Nadia Pinardi, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Nicola Cardellicchio, Claudio Caporale, Stefania Ciliberti, Giovanni Coppini, Francesca De Pascalis, Lorenzo Dialti, Ivan Federico, Marco Filippone, Alessandro Grandi, Matteo Guideri, Rita Lecci, Lamberto Lamberti, Giuliano Lorenzetti, Paolo Lusiani, Cosimo Damiano Macripo, Francesco Maicu, Michele Mossa, Diego Tartarini, Francesco Trotta, Georg Umgiesser, and Luca Zaggia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2623–2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2623-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The circulation is shown to be dominated by an anticyclonic gyre and upwelling areas at the gyre periphery.
P. Zemlys, C. Ferrarin, G. Umgiesser, S. Gulbinskas, and D. Bellafiore
Ocean Sci., 9, 573–584, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-573-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-573-2013, 2013
C. Ferrarin, M. Ghezzo, G. Umgiesser, D. Tagliapietra, E. Camatti, L. Zaggia, and A. Sarretta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1733–1748, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1733-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Approach: Numerical Models | Depth range: Shelf-sea depth | Geographical range: Baltic Sea | Phenomena: Current Field
Wave–current interactions in a wind-jet region
Consequences of artificial deepwater ventilation in the Bornholm Basin for oxygen conditions, cod reproduction and benthic biomass – a model study
Laura Ràfols, Manel Grifoll, and Manuel Espino
Ocean Sci., 15, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-1-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the effects of the wave–current interactions in a region where episodes of strong cross-shelf wind occur. To do so, a coupled system between two numerical models has been implemented. The results do not show substantial differences in the water current patterns, but a clear effect on the water column stratification has been found. Additionally, stronger impact is observed for the wave period rather than the wave height.
A. Stigebrandt, R. Rosenberg, L. Råman Vinnå, and M. Ödalen
Ocean Sci., 11, 93–110, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-93-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-11-93-2015, 2015
Short summary
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The hydrographical and ecological changes in the deep part of the Bornholm Basin in response to pumping well-oxygenated so-called winter water down to the greatest depth are investigated. By pumping 1000 m3s-1, the rates of water exchange and oxygen supply increase by 2.5 and 3 times, respectively. Anoxic bottoms should no longer occur and hypoxic events will become rare. This should mean much improved conditions for successful cod reproduction, extensive colonization of fauna on earlier periodi
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Short summary
The paper explores the importance of physical forcing on the exchange mechanisms and the renewal time in the Curonian Lagoon over 10 years. The influence of ice cover on the exchange rates has been explored. Finally, the influence of water level fluctuations and river discharge has been studied. It has been found that ice cover is surprisingly not very important for changes in renewal time. The single most important factor is river discharge.
The paper explores the importance of physical forcing on the exchange mechanisms and the renewal...