Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-12-2783-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/osd-12-2783-2015
13 Nov 2015
 | 13 Nov 2015
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal OS but the revision was not accepted.

Multivariate extreme value analysis of storm surges in SCS on peak over threshold method

Y. Luo, D. Sui, H. Shi, Z. Zhou, and D. Wang

Abstract. We use a novel statistical approach-MGPD to analyze the joint probability distribution of storm surge events at two sites and present a warning method for storm surges at two adjacent positions in Beibu Gulf, using the sufficiently long field data on surge levels at two sites. The methodology also develops the procedure of application of MGPD, which includes joint threshold and Monte Carlo simulation, to handle multivariate extreme values analysis. By comparing the simulation result with analytic solution, it is shown that the relative error of the Monte Carlo simulation is less than 8.6 %. By running MGPD model based on long data at Beihai and Dongfang, the simulated potential surge results can be employed in storm surge warnings of Beihai and joint extreme water level predictions of two sites.

Y. Luo, D. Sui, H. Shi, Z. Zhou, and D. Wang
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Y. Luo, D. Sui, H. Shi, Z. Zhou, and D. Wang
Y. Luo, D. Sui, H. Shi, Z. Zhou, and D. Wang

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