North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation

Medhaug, I.; Furevik, T.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/os-7-389-2011

Articles | Volume 7, issue 3

Article
Peer review
Metrics
Related articles

Articles | Volume 7, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/os-7-389-2011

Articles | Volume 7, issue 3

Article
Peer review
Metrics
Related articles

Research article

06 Jun 2011

Research article |

| 06 Jun 2011

North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation

I. Medhaug and T. Furevik

I. Medhaug

Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

T. Furevik

Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

Cited articles

Baringer, M. O. and Molinari, R.: Atlantic O}cean baroclinic heat flux at 24 to 26° {N, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 353–356, 1999.

Bartlett, M. S.: An introduction to stochastic processes. Cambridge University Press, 1966.

Bentsen, M., Drange, H., Furevik, T., and Zhou, T.: Simulated variability of the A}tlantic meridional overturning circulation, {Clim. Dynam., 22, 701–720, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0397-x, 2004.

Bjerknes, J.: Atlantic air-sea interaction, edited by: Landsberg, H. E. and Van Mieghem, J., Adv. Geophys., Academic press, 1–82, 1964.

Bryden, H. L., Longworth, H. R., and Cunningham, S. A.: Slowing of the A}tlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25°{N. Nature, 438, 655–657, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04385, 2005.

Collins, M., Botzet, M., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, M., Masina, S., Otterå, O. H., Pohlmann, H., Sorteberg, A., Sutton, R., and Terray, L.: Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic}: a multimodel-ensemble study, {J. Climate, 19(7), 1195–1203, 2006.

Cunningham, S. A., Kanzow, T., Rayner, D., Baringer, M. O., Johns, W. E., Marotzke, J., Longworth, H. R., Grand, E. M., Hirschi, J. J. M., Beal, L. M., Meinen, C. S., and Bryden, H. L.: Temporal variability for the A}tlantic {M}eridional {O}verturning {C}irculation at 26.5° {N, Science, 317, 935–937, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1141304, 2007.

Delworth, T. L. and Knutson, T. R.: imulation of early 20th century global warming, Science, 287(5461), 2246–2250, 2000.

Delworth, T. L. and Mann, M. E.: Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the N}orthern hemisphere, {Clim. Dynam., 16, 661–676, 2000.

Delworth, T. L., Manabe, S., and Stouffer, R. J.: Interdecadal variation in the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Climate, 6, 1993–2011, 1993.

Delworth, T. L., Clark, P. U., Holland, M., Johns, W. E., Kuhlbrodt, T., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Morrill, C., Seager, R., Weaver, A. J., and Zhang, R.: The potential for abrupt change in the A}tlantic {M}eridional {O}verturning {C}irculation. {Abrupt Climate Change, A report by the US, {C}limate {C}hange {S}cience {P}rogram and the {S}ubcommittee on {G}lobal {C}hange {R}esearch, US Geological Survey, Reston, VA, chap. 4, 117–162, 2008.

Deshayes, J. and Frankignoul, C.: Simulated variability of the circulation of the North Atlantic from 1953 to 2003, J. Climate, 21, 4919–4933, https://doi.org/11.1175/2008JCLI1882.1, 2008.

Dickson, R., Lazier, J., Meincke, J., Rhines, P., and Swift, J.: Long-term coordinated changes in the convective activity of the N}orth {A}tlantic, {Prog. Oceanogr., 38, 241–295, 1996.

Dunstone, N. J. and Smith, D. M.: Impact of atmosphere and sub-surface ocean data on decadal climate prediction, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041609, 2010.

Eden, C. and Willebrand, J.: Mechanisms of interannual to decadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation, J. Climate, 14, 2266–2280, 2001.

Frankcombe, L. M., Dijkstra, H. A., and von der Heydt, A.: Noise-induced multidecadal variability in the N}orth {A}tlantic: {E}xcitation of normal modes, {J. Phys. Oceanogr., 39, 220–233, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JPO3951.1, 2009.

Frankignoul, C., Müller, P., and Zorita, E.: A simple model of the decadal response of the ocean to stochastic wind forcing, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1533–1546, 1997.

Fuglister, F. C.: Atlantic Ocean Atlas of temperature and salinity profiles and data from the international geophysical year of 1957–1958, Woods Hole Oceanogr Inst Atlas Series, Vol. 1, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Mass, 1960.

Furevik, T.: Annual and interannual variability of Atlantic Water temperatures in the Norwegian and Barents Seas}: 1980–1996, {Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 48(2), 383–404, 2001.

Furevik, T., Bentsen, M., Drange, H., Kindem, I. K. T., Kvamstø, N. G., and Sorteberg, A.: Description and evaluation of the B}ergen climate model: {ARPEGE coupled with MICOM, Clim. Dynam., 21, 27–51, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00383-003-0317-5, 2003.

Ganachaud, A.: Large-scale mass transports, water mass formation, and diffusivities estimated from W}orld {O}cean {C}irculation {E}xperiment ({WOCE}) hydrographic data, {J. Geophys. Res., 108(C7), 3213, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JC001565, 2003.

Ganachaud, A. and Wunsch, C.: Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data, Nature, 408, 453–457, 2000.

Gijbels, I., Pope, A., and Wand, M. P.: Understanding exponential smoothing via kernel regression, J. R. Stat. Soc. B, 61(1), 39–50, 1999.

Gould, J.: From shallow floats to Argo – The development of neutrally buoyant floats, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 52, 529–543, 2005.

Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Willis, J., Del Genio, A., Koch, D., Lacis, A., Lo, K., Menon, S., Navakov, T., Perlwiz, J., Russel, G., Schmidt, G. A., and Tausenev, N.: Earth's energy imbalance: confirmation and implications, Science, 308, 1431, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1110252, 2005.

Hasselmann, K.: Stochastic climate models Part I. Theory, Tellus, 28, 473–483, 1976.

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: Variability of the A}tlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions. {Clim. Dynam., 29, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8, 2007.

Häkkinen, S.: Variability of the simulated meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic for the period 1951–1993, J. Geophys. Res., 104(C5), 10991–11007, 1999.

Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M.: An overview of the N}orth {A}tlantic {O}scillation, {The {N}orth {A}tlantic {O}scillation: {C}limatic significance and environmental impact, edited by: Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M., American Geophysical Union, Geoph. Monog. Series, 134, 1–35, 2003.

IPCC, 2007: Climate C}hange 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of {Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Johnson, G. C.: Quantifying A}ntarctic {B}ottom {W}ater and {N}orth {A}tlantic {D}eep {W}ater volumes, {J. Geophys. Res., 113, C05027, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004477, 2008.

Jungclaus, J. H., Haak, H., Latif, M., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Arctic-{N}orth A}tlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation, {J. Climate, 18(19), 4013–4031, 2005.

Kaplan, A., Cane, M., Kushnir, Y., Clement, A., Blumenthal, M., and Rajagopalan, B.: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856–1991, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18567–18589, 1998.

Keenlyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L., and Roeckner, E.: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453, 84–88, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06921, 2008.

Knight, J. R.: The A}tlantic {M}ultidecadal {O}scillation inferred from the forced climate response in coupled general circulation models, {J. Climate, 22, 1610–1625, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2628.1, 2009.

Knight, J. R., Allan, R. J., Folland, C. K., Vellinga, M., and Mann, M. E.: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026242, 2005.

Kravtsov, S. and Spannagle, C.: Multidecadal climate variability in observed and modeled surface temperatures, J. Climate, 21, 1104–1121, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1874.1, 2008.

Kushnir, Y.: Interdecadal variations in N}orth {A}tlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions, {J. Climate, 7(1), 141–157, 1994.

Latif, M., Roeckner, E., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Jungclaus, J. H., Legutke, S., Marsland, S., and Mickolajevicz, U.: Reconstructing, monitoring, and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the N}orth {A}tlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature, {J. Climate, 17, 1605–1613, 2004.

Lumpkin, R. and Speer, K.: Large-scale vertical and horizontal circulation in the N}orth {A}tlantic {O}cean, {J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 1902–1920, 2003.

Marshall, J., Kushnir, Y., Battisti, D., Chang, P., Czaja, A., Dickson, R., Hurrell, J., McCartney, M., Saravanan, R., and Visbeck, M.: N}orth {A}tlantic climate variability: Phenomena, impacts and mechanisms, {Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1863–1898, 2001.

Medhaug, I., Langehaug, H. R., Eldevik, T., Furevik, T., and Bentsen, M.: Mechanisms for decadal scale variability in a simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Clim. Dynam., in revision, 2011.

Msadek, R. and Frankignoul, C.: Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model, Clim. Dynam., 33, 45–62, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0452-0, 2009.

Otterå, O. H., Drange,H., Bentsen, M., Kvamstø, N. G., and Jiang, D.: The sensitivity of the present-day Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to freshwater forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1898, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017578, 2003.

Otterå, O. H., Bentsen, M., Drange, H., and Suo, L.: External forcing as a metronome for A}tlantic multidecadal variability, {Nat. Geosci., 3, 688–694, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo955, 2010.

Parrilla, G., Lavín, A., Bryden, H., and Millard, R.: Rising temperatures in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean over the past 35 years, Nature, 369, 48–51, 1994.

Pohlmann, H., Jungclaus, J., Köhl, A., Stammer, D., and Marotzke, J.: Initializing decadal climate prediction with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic, J. Climate, 22, 3926–3938, 2009.

Polyakov, I. V. and Johnson, M. A.: Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(24), 4097–4100, 2000.

Polyakov, I. V., Alekseev, G. V., Timikhov, L. A., Bhatt, U. S., Colony, R. L., Simmons, H. L., Walsh, D., Walsh, J. E., and Zakharov, V. F.: Variability of the Intermediate Atlantic Water of the Arctic Ocean over the last 100 years, J. Climate, 17(23), 4485–4497, 2004.

Quenouille, M. H.: Associated Measurements, Butterworths, London, 241 pp., 1952.

Roemmich, D. and Owens, W. B.: The A}rgo project: {G}lobal ocean observations for understanding and prediction of climate variability, {Oceanogr., 13, 45–50, 2000.

Roemmich, D. and Wunsch, C.: Two transatlantic sections: meridional circulation and heat flux in the subtropical N}orth {A}tlantic {O}cean, Deep-Sea Res., {32, 619–664, 1985.

Schlesinger, M. E. and Ramankutty, N.: An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years, Nature, 367, 723–726, 1994.

Schott, F. A., McCreary Jr, J. P., and Johnson, G. C.: Shallow overturning circulation of the tropical-subtropical oceans, Earth Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, edited by: Wang, C., Xie, S., and Carton, J. A., American Geophysical Union, Geoph. Monog. Series, 147, 261–304, 2004.

Smethie, W. M. and Fine, R. A.: Rates of N}orth {A}tlantic deep water formation calculated from chlorofluorocarbon inventories, {Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 48, 189–215, 2001.

Smith, D. M., Cusack, S., Colman, A. W., Folland, C. K., Harris, G. R., and Murphy, J. M.: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model, Science, 317, 796–799, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139540, 2007.

Sutton, R. T. and Hodson, D. L. R.:{A}tlantic O}cean forcing of {N}orth {A}merican and {E}uropean summer climate, {Science, 309(5731), 115–118, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.110949, 2005.

Talley, L. D., Reid, J. L., and Robbins, P. E.: Data-based meridional overturning streamfunctions for the global ocean, J. Climate, 16, 3213–3226, 2003.

Thompson, D. J.: Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis, P IEEE, 70(9), 1055–1096, 1982.

Thompson, D. W. J., Kennedy, J. J., Wallace, J. M., and Jones, P. D.: A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature, Nature, 453, 646–649, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06982, 2008.

Thorpe, R. B., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Wood, R. A., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: Mechanisms determining the A}tlantic thermohaline circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing in a non-flux-adjusted coupled climate model, {J. Climate, 14, 3102–3116, 2001.

Ting, M., Kushnir, Y., Seager, R., and Li, C.: Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the N}orth {A}tlantic, {J. Climate, 22, 1469–1481, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2561.1, 2009.

Trenberth, K. E. and Caron, J. M.: Estimates of meridional atmosphere and ocean heat transports, J. Climate, 14, 3433–3443, 2001.

Vellinga, M. and Wu, P.: Low-latitude freshwater influence on centennial variability of the A}tlantic thermohaline circulation, {J. Climate, 17, 4498–4511, https://doi.org/10.1175/3219.1, 2004.

Woodgate, R. A., Aagaard, K., and Weingartner, T. J.: Monthly temperature, salinity, and transport variability of the B}ering {S}trait through flow, {Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04601, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021880, 2005.

Wunsch, C.: What is the thermohaline circulation? Science, 298, 1180–1181, 2002.

Zhang, R.: Anticorrelated multidecadal variations between surface and subsurface tropical N}orth {A}tlantic, {Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L12713, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030225, 2007.

Zhang, R.: Coherent surface-subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035463, 2008.

Zhang, R., Delworth, T. L., and Held, I. M.: Can the A}tlantic {O}cean drive the observed multidecadal variability in {N}orthern {H}emisphere mean temperature?, {Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028683, 2007.