Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1081-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1081-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 20 Jun 2025
| 20 Jun 2025
Stratification and overturning circulation are intertwined controls on ocean heat uptake efficiency in climate models
Linus Vogt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY, USA
Jean-Baptiste Sallée
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Casimir de Lavergne
Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Paris, France
Related authors
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean heat uptake (OHU) accounts for over 90% of the Earth's excess energy storage due to climate change, but future (OHU) projections strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU using historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14%.
Linus Vogt, Casimir de Lavergne, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lester Kwiatkowski, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Jens Terhaar
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean heat uptake (OHU) accounts for over 90% of the Earth's excess energy storage due to climate change, but future (OHU) projections strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU using historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14%.
Kirtana Naëck, Jacqueline Boutin, Sebastiaan Swart, Marcel du Plessis, Liliane Merlivat, Laurence Beaumont, Antonio Lourenco, Francesco d'Ovidio, Louise Rousselet, Brian Ward, and Jean-Baptiste Sallée
Biogeosciences, 22, 1947–1968, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1947-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1947-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In summer 2022, a CARbon Interface OCean Atmosphere (CARIOCA) drifting buoy observed an anomalously strong ocean carbon sink in the subpolar Southern Ocean associated with large plumes of chlorophyll a. Lagrangian backward trajectories indicate that these waters originated from the sea ice edge in spring 2021. Our study highlights the northward migration of the CO2 sink associated with early sea ice retreat.
Lu Zhou, Holly Ayres, Birte Gülk, Aditya Narayanan, Casimir de Lavergne, Malin Ödalen, Alessandro Silvano, Xingchi Wang, Margaret Lindeman, and Nadine Steiger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-999, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Polynyas are large openings in polar sea ice that can influence global climate and ocean circulation. After disappearing for 40 years, major polynyas reappeared in the Weddell Sea in 2016 and 2017, sparking new scientific questions. Our review explores how ocean currents, atmospheric conditions, and deep ocean heat drive their formation. These polynyas impact ecosystems, carbon exchange, and deep water formation, but their future remains uncertain, requiring better observations and models.
Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Lucie Vignes, Audrey Minière, Nadine Steiger, Etienne Pauthenet, Antonio Lourenco, Kevin Speer, Peter Lazarevich, and Keith W. Nicholls
Ocean Sci., 20, 1267–1280, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the Weddell Sea, we investigated how warm deep currents and cold waters containing freshwater released from the Antarctic are connected. We used autonomous observation devices that have never been used in this region previously and that allow us to track the movement and characteristics of water masses under the sea ice. Our findings show a dynamic interaction between warm masses, providing key insights to understand climate-related changes in the region.
Yona Silvy, Clément Rousset, Eric Guilyardi, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Juliette Mignot, Christian Ethé, and Gurvan Madec
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7683–7713, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7683-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7683-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A modeling framework is introduced to understand and decompose the mechanisms causing the ocean temperature, salinity and circulation to change since the pre-industrial period and into 21st century scenarios of global warming. This framework aims to look at the response to changes in the winds and in heat and freshwater exchanges at the ocean interface in global climate models, throughout the 1850–2100 period, to unravel their individual effects on the changing physical structure of the ocean.
Gilles Reverdin, Claire Waelbroeck, Catherine Pierre, Camille Akhoudas, Giovanni Aloisi, Marion Benetti, Bernard Bourlès, Magnus Danielsen, Jérôme Demange, Denis Diverrès, Jean-Claude Gascard, Marie-Noëlle Houssais, Hervé Le Goff, Pascale Lherminier, Claire Lo Monaco, Herlé Mercier, Nicolas Metzl, Simon Morisset, Aïcha Naamar, Thierry Reynaud, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Virginie Thierry, Susan E. Hartman, Edward W. Mawji, Solveig Olafsdottir, Torsten Kanzow, Anton Velo, Antje Voelker, Igor Yashayaev, F. Alexander Haumann, Melanie J. Leng, Carol Arrowsmith, and Michael Meredith
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2721–2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2721-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2721-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The CISE-LOCEAN seawater stable isotope dataset has close to 8000 data entries. The δ18O and δD isotopic data measured at LOCEAN have uncertainties of at most 0.05 ‰ and 0.25 ‰, respectively. Some data were adjusted to correct for evaporation. The internal consistency indicates that the data can be used to investigate time and space variability to within 0.03 ‰ and 0.15 ‰ in δ18O–δD17; comparisons with data analyzed in other institutions suggest larger differences with other datasets.
Cited articles
Abernathey, R. P., Cerovecki, I., Holland, P. R., Newsom, E., Mazloff, M., and Talley, L. D.: Water-mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning, Nat. Geosci., 9, 596–601, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2749, 2016. a
Bentsen, M., Oliviè, D. J. L., Seland, O., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O. A., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: NCC NorESM2-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.506, 2019. a
Boé, J., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: Deep ocean heat uptake as a major source of spread in transient climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040845, 2009. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M.-A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Ghattas, J., Lebas, N., Lurton, T., Mellul, L., Musat, I., Mignot, J., and Cheruy, F.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1534, 2018. a
Bourgeois, T., Goris, N., Schwinger, J., and Tjiputra, J. F.: Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30° S and 55° S, Nat. Commun., 13, 340, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5, 2022. a, b, c
Cheng, L., von Schuckmann, K., Abraham, J. P., Trenberth, K. E., Mann, M. E., Zanna, L., England, M. H., Zika, J. D., Fasullo, J. T., Yu, Y., Pan, Y., Zhu, J., Newsom, E. R., Bronselaer, B., and Lin, X.: Past and future ocean warming, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 3, 776–794, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00345-1, 2022. a, b, c, d
Danabasoglu, G.: NCAR CESM2-WACCM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10024, 2019a. a
Danabasoglu, G.: NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2185, 2019b. a
Dawson, A.: eofs: A Library for EOF Analysis of Meteorological, Oceanographic, and Climate Data, Journal of Open Research Software, 4, e14, https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.122, 2016. a
de Boyer Montégut, C., Madec, G., Fischer, A. S., Lazar, A., and Iudicone, D.: Mixed layer depth over the global ocean: An examination of profile data and a profile-based climatology, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 109, C12003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002378, 2004. a
Dix, M., Bi, D., Dobrohotoff, P., Fiedler, R., Harman, I., Law, R., Mackallah, C., Marsland, S., O'Farrell, S., Rashid, H., Srbinovsky, J., Sullivan, A., Trenham, C., Vohralik, P., Watterson, I., Williams, G., Woodhouse, M., Bodman, R., Dias, F. B., Domingues, C. M., Hannah, N., Heerdegen, A., Savita, A., Wales, S., Allen, C., Druken, K., Evans, B., Richards, C., Ridzwan, S. M., Roberts, D., Smillie, J., Snow, K., Ward, M., and Yang, R.: CSIRO-ARCCSS ACCESS-CM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2281, 2019. a
Earth System Grid Federation: ESGF MetaGrid, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/, last access: 13 June 2025. a
EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth): EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.181, 2019a. a
EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth): EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3-Veg model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.642, 2019b. a
EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth): EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth-3-CC model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.640, 2020a. a
EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth): EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3-Veg-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.643, 2020b. a
Evans, D. G., Zika, J. D., Naveira Garabato, A. C., and Nurser, A. J. G.: The Cold Transit of Southern Ocean Upwelling, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 13386–13395, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079986, 2018. a
Exarchou, E., Kuhlbrodt, T., Gregory, J. M., and Smith, R. S.: Ocean Heat Uptake Processes: A Model Intercomparison, J. Climate, 28, 887–908, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00235.1, 2015. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Farneti, R., Downes, S. M., Griffies, S. M., Marsland, S. J., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Böning, C., Bozec, A., Canuto, V. M., Chassignet, E., Danabasoglu, G., Danilov, S., Diansky, N., Drange, H., Fogli, P. G., Gusev, A., Hallberg, R. W., Howard, A., Ilicak, M., Jung, T., Kelley, M., Large, W. G., Leboissetier, A., Long, M., Lu, J., Masina, S., Mishra, A., Navarra, A., George Nurser, A. J., Patara, L., Samuels, B. L., Sidorenko, D., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Wang, Q., and Yeager, S. G.: An assessment of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation during 1958–2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations, Ocean Model., 93, 84–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.009, 2015. a
Forget, G., Campin, J.-M., Heimbach, P., Hill, C. N., Ponte, R. M., and Wunsch, C.: ECCO version 4: an integrated framework for non-linear inverse modeling and global ocean state estimation, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3071–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3071-2015, 2015. a
Forster, P., Storelvmo, T., Armour, K., Collins, W., Dufresne, J.-L., Frame, D., Lunt, D. J., Mauritsen, T., Palmer, M. D., Watanabe, M., Wild, M., and Zhang, X.: The Earth's energy budget, climate feedbacks, and climate sensitivity, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 923–1054, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001, 2021. a
Frölicher, T. L., Sarmiento, J. L., Paynter, D. J., Dunne, J. P., Krasting, J. P., and Winton, M.: Dominance of the Southern Ocean in Anthropogenic Carbon and Heat Uptake in CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 28, 862–886, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00117.1, 2015. a, b, c, d
Gnanadesikan, A.: A Simple Predictive Model for the Structure of the Oceanic Pycnocline, Science, 283, 2077–2079, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.283.5410.2077, 1999. a, b
Gregory, J. M.: Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change, Clim. Dynam., 16, 501–515, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000059, 2000. a
Gregory, J. M. and Mitchell, J. F. B.: The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1943–1946, https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL01930, 1997. a
Gregory, J. M., Bloch-Johnson, J., Couldrey, M. P., Exarchou, E., Griffies, S. M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Newsom, E., Saenko, O. A., Suzuki, T., Wu, Q., Urakawa, S., and Zanna, L.: A new conceptual model of global ocean heat uptake, Clim. Dynam., 62, 1669–1713, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06989-z, 2024. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Griffies, S. M., Danabasoglu, G., Durack, P. J., Adcroft, A. J., Balaji, V., Böning, C. W., Chassignet, E. P., Curchitser, E., Deshayes, J., Drange, H., Fox-Kemper, B., Gleckler, P. J., Gregory, J. M., Haak, H., Hallberg, R. W., Heimbach, P., Hewitt, H. T., Holland, D. M., Ilyina, T., Jungclaus, J. H., Komuro, Y., Krasting, J. P., Large, W. G., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., McDougall, T. J., Nurser, A. J. G., Orr, J. C., Pirani, A., Qiao, F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., Treguier, A. M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valdivieso, M., Wang, Q., Winton, M., and Yeager, S. G.: OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016. a
Guo, H., John, J. G., Blanton, C., McHugh, C., Nikonov, S., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Zadeh, N. T., Balaji, V., Durachta, J., Dupuis, C., Menzel, R., Robinson, T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Bushuk, M., Dunne, K. A., Dussin, R., Gauthier, P. P., Ginoux, P., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., Lin, P., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Reichl, B. G., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Seman, C. J., Shao, A., Silvers, L., Wyman, B., Yan, X., Zeng, Y., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Held, I. M., Krasting, J. P., Horowitz, L. W., Milly, P. C. D., Shevliakova, E., Winton, M., Zhao, M., and Zhang, R.: NOAA-GFDL GFDL-CM4 model output, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1402, 2018. a
Hanawa, K. and Talley, L. D.: Chapter 5.4 Mode waters, in: International Geophysics, edited by: Siedler, G., Church, J., and Gould, J., Ocean Circulation and Climate, Academic Press, vol. 77, 373–386, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0074-6142(01)80129-7, 2001. a
He, J., Winton, M., Vecchi, G., Jia, L., and Rugenstein, M.: Transient Climate Sensitivity Depends on Base Climate Ocean Circulation, J. Climate, 30, 1493–1504, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0581.1, 2017. a
Heuzé, C.: Antarctic Bottom Water and North Atlantic Deep Water in CMIP6 models, Ocean Sci., 17, 59–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-59-2021, 2021. a, b
Hu, X., Fan, H., Cai, M., Sejas, S. A., Taylor, P., and Yang, S.: A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections, Nat. Commun., 11, 4472, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18227-9, 2020. a
Jackson, L. C. and Petit, T.: North Atlantic overturning and water mass transformation in CMIP6 models, Clim. Dynam., 60, 2871–2891, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06448-1, 2023. a, b, c
Jackson, L. C., Hewitt, H. T., Bruciaferri, D., Calvert, D., Graham, T., Guiavarc'h, C., Menary, M. B., New, A. L., Roberts, M., and Storkey, D.: Challenges simulating the AMOC in climate models, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 381, 20220187, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0187, 2023. a, b, c
Jungclaus, J., Bittner, M., Wieners, K.-H., Wachsmann, F., Schupfner, M., Legutke, S., Giorgetta, M., Reick, C., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters-von Gehlen, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.741, 2019. a
Kamenkovich, I. and Radko, T.: Role of the Southern Ocean in setting the Atlantic stratification and meridional overturning circulation, J. Mar. Res., 69, 277–308, https://doi.org/10.1357/002224011798765286, 2011. a
Klocker, A., Naveira Garabato, A. C., Roquet, F., de Lavergne, C., and Rintoul, S. R.: Generation of the Internal Pycnocline in the Subpolar Southern Ocean by Wintertime Sea Ice Melting, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 128, e2022JC019113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC019113, 2023. a, b
Kostov, Y., Armour, K. C., and Marshall, J.: Impact of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ocean heat storage and transient climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2108–2116, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058998, 2014. a, b
Krasting, J. P., John, J. G., Blanton, C., McHugh, C., Nikonov, S., Radhakrishnan, A., Rand, K., Zadeh, N. T., Balaji, V., Durachta, J., Dupuis, C., Menzel, R., Robinson, T., Underwood, S., Vahlenkamp, H., Dunne, K. A., Gauthier, P. P., Ginoux, P., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R., Harrison, M., Hurlin, W., Malyshev, S., Naik, V., Paulot, F., Paynter, D. J., Ploshay, J., Reichl, B. G., Schwarzkopf, D. M., Seman, C. J., Silvers, L., Wyman, B., Zeng, Y., Adcroft, A., Dunne, J. P., Dussin, R., Guo, H., He, J., Held, I. M., Horowitz, L. W., Lin, P., Milly, P. C. D., Shevliakova, E., Stock, C., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., Xie, Y., and Zhao, M.: NOAA-GFDL GFDL-ESM4 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1407, 2018. a
Kuhlbrodt, T. and Gregory, J. M.: Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18608, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052952, 2012. a
Kuhlbrodt, T., Griesel, A., Montoya, M., Levermann, A., Hofmann, M., and Rahmstorf, S.: On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000166, 2007. a
Lin, Y.-J., Rose, B. E. J., and Hwang, Y.-T.: Mean state AMOC affects AMOC weakening through subsurface warming in the Labrador Sea, J. Climate, 36, 1–44, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0464.1, 2023. a
Lovato, T. and Peano, D.: CMCC CMCC-CM2-SR5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1362, 2020. a
Lovato, T., Peano, D., and Butenschön, M.: CMCC CMCC-ESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.13164, 2021. a
Luo, F., Ying, J., Liu, T., and Chen, D.: Origins of Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias in CMIP6 models, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00456-6, 2023. a, b
Marzocchi, A., Nurser, A. J. G., Clément, L., and McDonagh, E. L.: Surface atmospheric forcing as the driver of long-term pathways and timescales of ocean ventilation, Ocean Sci., 17, 935–952, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-935-2021, 2021. a
Maze, G.: Ocean Profile Classification Model in python, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3906236, 2020. a
Maze, G., Mercier, H., Fablet, R., Tandeo, P., Lopez Radcenco, M., Lenca, P., Feucher, C., and Le Goff, C.: Coherent heat patterns revealed by unsupervised classification of Argo temperature profiles in the North Atlantic Ocean, Prog. Oceanogr., 151, 275–292, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.008, 2017. a
McCartney, M. S.: Subantarctic Mode Water, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Contribution, 3773, 103–119, https://www.whoi.edu/science/PO/people/mmccartney/pdfs/McCartney77.pdf (last accessed: 10 February 2024), 1979. a
McDougall, T. J., Groeskamp, S., and Griffies, S. M.: On Geometrical Aspects of Interior Ocean Mixing, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44, 2164–2175, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-0270.1, 2014. a
Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Eyring, V., Flato, G., Lamarque, J.-F., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., and Schlund, M.: Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models, Science Advances, 6, eaba1981, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981, 2020. a
Morrison, A. K., Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Mechanisms of Southern Ocean Heat Uptake and Transport in a Global Eddying Climate Model, J. Climate, 29, 2059–2075, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0579.1, 2016. a
Morrison, A. K., Waugh, D. W., Hogg, A. M., Jones, D. C., and Abernathey, R. P.: Ventilation of the Southern Ocean Pycnocline, Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci., 14, 405–430, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-011012, 2022. a
NASA/GISS: NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1400, 2018. a
Nayak, M. S., Bonan, D. B., Newsom, E. R., and Thompson, A. F.: Controls on the Strength and Structure of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Climate Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL109055, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109055, 2024. a, b
Pellichero, V., Sallée, J.-B., Chapman, C. C., and Downes, S. M.: The southern ocean meridional overturning in the sea-ice sector is driven by freshwater fluxes, Nat. Commun., 9, 1789, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04101-2, 2018. a
Ridley, J., Menary, M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Andrews, M., and Andrews, T.: MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.419, 2018. a
Ridley, J., Menary, M., Kuhlbrodt, T., Andrews, M., and Andrews, T.: MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-MM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.420, 2019. a
Romanou, A., Marshall, J., Kelley, M., and Scott, J.: Role of the ocean's AMOC in setting the uptake efficiency of transient tracers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5590–5598, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072972, 2017. a
Roquet, F., Madec, G., Brodeau, L., and Nycander, J.: Defining a Simplified Yet “Realistic” Equation of State for Seawater, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 45, 2564–2579, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-15-0080.1, 2015. a
Saenko, O. A., Yang, D., and Gregory, J. M.: Impact of Mesoscale Eddy Transfer on Heat Uptake in an Eddy-Parameterizing Ocean Model, J. Climate, 31, 8589–8606, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0186.1, 2018. a
Sallée, J. B., Speer, K. G., and Rintoul, S. R.: Zonally asymmetric response of the Southern Ocean mixed-layer depth to the Southern Annular Mode, Nat. Geosci., 3, 273–279, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo812, 2010. a, b
Sallée, J.-B., Matear, R. J., Rintoul, S. R., and Lenton, A.: Localized subduction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the Southern Hemisphere oceans, Nat. Geosci., 5, 579–584, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1523, 2012. a
Sallée, J.-B., Shuckburgh, E., Bruneau, N., Meijers, A. J. S., Bracegirdle, T. J., and Wang, Z.: Assessment of Southern Ocean mixed-layer depths in CMIP5 models: Historical bias and forcing response, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 1845–1862, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20157, 2013a. a
Sallée, J.-B., Shuckburgh, E., Bruneau, N., Meijers, A. J. S., Bracegirdle, T. J., Wang, Z., and Roy, T.: Assessment of Southern Ocean water mass circulation and characteristics in CMIP5 models: Historical bias and forcing response, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 1830–1844, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20135, 2013b. a, b
Seferian, R.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1391, 2018. a
Seland, O., Bentsen, M., Oliviè, D. J. L., Toniazzo, T., Gjermundsen, A., Graff, L. S., Debernard, J. B., Gupta, A. K., He, Y., Kirkevåg, A., Schwinger, J., Tjiputra, J., Aas, K. S., Bethke, I., Fan, Y., Griesfeller, J., Grini, A., Guo, C., Ilicak, M., Karset, I. H. H., Landgren, O. A., Liakka, J., Moseid, K. O., Nummelin, A., Spensberger, C., Tang, H., Zhang, Z., Heinze, C., Iversen, T., and Schulz, M.: NCC NorESM2-LM model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.502, 2019. a
Shi, J.-R., Xie, S.-P., and Talley, L. D.: Evolving Relative Importance of the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in Anthropogenic Ocean Heat Uptake, J. Climate, 31, 7459–7479, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0170.1, 2018. a
Stolpe, M. B., Medhaug, I., Sedláček, J., and Knutti, R.: Multidecadal Variability in Global Surface Temperatures Related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, J. Climate, 31, 2889–2906, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0444.1, 2018. a, b
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., Winter, B., and Sigmond, M.: CCCma CanESM5-CanOE model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10205, 2019a. a
Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., Winter, B., and Sigmond, M.: CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1303, 2019b. a
Tang, Y., Rumbold, S., Ellis, R., Kelley, D., Mulcahy, J., Sellar, A., Walton, J., and Jones, C.: MOHC UKESM1.0-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1569, 2019. a
Tatebe, H. and Watanabe, M.: MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.881, 2018. a
Vogt, L.: linusvogt/OS_stratification_ocean_heat_uptake_efficiency: First release for Zenodo (Version v1), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15085902, 2025. a
Vogt, L., Lavergne, C. d., Sallée, J.-B., Kwiatkowski, L., Frölicher, T., and Terhaar, J.: Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent, Research Square, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3982037/v2, 2024. a
Voldoire, A.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1375, 2018. a
Voldoire, A.: CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1385, 2019. a
von Schuckmann, K., Cheng, L., Palmer, M. D., Hansen, J., Tassone, C., Aich, V., Adusumilli, S., Beltrami, H., Boyer, T., Cuesta-Valero, F. J., Desbruyères, D., Domingues, C., García-García, A., Gentine, P., Gilson, J., Gorfer, M., Haimberger, L., Ishii, M., Johnson, G. C., Killick, R., King, B. A., Kirchengast, G., Kolodziejczyk, N., Lyman, J., Marzeion, B., Mayer, M., Monier, M., Monselesan, D. P., Purkey, S., Roemmich, D., Schweiger, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Shepherd, A., Slater, D. A., Steiner, A. K., Straneo, F., Timmermans, M.-L., and Wijffels, S. E.: Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020. a, b
Wang, C., Zhang, L., Lee, S.-K., Wu, L., and Mechoso, C. R.: A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 201–205, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2118, 2014. a
Wieners, K.-H., Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Esch, M., Bittner, M., Legutke, S., Schupfner, M., Wachsmann, F., Gayler, V., Haak, H., de Vrese, P., Raddatz, T., Mauritsen, T., von Storch, J.-S., Behrens, J., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Hagemann, S., Hohenegger, C., Jahns, T., Kloster, S., Kinne, S., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Notz, D., Peters-von Gehlen, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Rast, S., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stevens, B., Voigt, A., and Roeckner, E.: MPI-M MPIESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.742, 2019. a
Williams, R. G., Meijers, A. J. S., Roussenov, V. M., Katavouta, A., Ceppi, P., Rosser, J. P., and Salvi, P.: Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 823–831, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02066-3, 2024. a, b
Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., Delworth, T. L., Griffies, S. M., Hurlin, W. J., and Rosati, A.: Has coarse ocean resolution biased simulations of transient climate sensitivity?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8522–8529, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061523, 2014. a
Yukimoto, S., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., Hosaka, M., Yoshimura, H., Shindo, E., Mizuta, R., Ishii, M., Obata, A., and Adachi, Y.: MRI MRI-ESM2.0 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.621, 2019. a
Ziehn, T., Chamberlain, M., Lenton, A., Law, R., Bodman, R., Dix, M., Wang, Y., Dobrohotoff, P., Srbinovsky, J., Stevens, L., Vohralik, P., Mackallah, C., Sullivan, A., O'Farrell, S., and Druken, K.: CSIRO ACCESS-ESM1.5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2288, 2019. a
Short summary
The ocean buffers human-induced climate change by taking up excess heat from the atmosphere. In this study, we use an ensemble of global climate models to study the physical processes which set the efficiency at which this heat is stored in the ocean. We reconcile previous attempts to explain controls on this efficiency and find that Southern Ocean stratification is a key model property due to its influence on the local overturning circulation and its connection to the subpolar North Atlantic.
The ocean buffers human-induced climate change by taking up excess heat from the atmosphere. In...
