Articles | Volume 20, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-549-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Apr 2024
Research article |
| 12 Apr 2024
| 12 Apr 2024
Persistent climate model biases in the Atlantic Ocean's freshwater transport
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Henk A. Dijkstra
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Cited
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Observation-based temperature and freshwater noise over the Atlantic Ocean A. Boot & H. Dijkstra https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-115-2025
- Impacts of North American forest cover changes on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation V. Bauer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-379-2025
- Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections S. Drijfhout et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b
- Observational constraints imply limited future Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening D. Bonan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01709-0
- Noise-induced tipping of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under climate mitigation scenarios J. Oh et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66494-1
- Conditions for skilful spatial and temporal tipping point early warning signals J. Clarke et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae6217
- The effects of a constructed closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC tipping behavior J. Soons & H. Dijkstra https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb7887
- Quantification of the cascading tipping probability from the AMOC to the Amazon rainforest with a rare-event algorithm V. Jacques-Dumas & H. Dijkstra https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0288335
- Volcanism-induced collapse and recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under glacial conditions G. Vettoretti et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx2124
- Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC A. Boot & H. Dijkstra https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025
- The Probability of an AMOC Collapse Onset in the Twenty-First Century H. Dijkstra & R. van Westen https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-040324-024822
- Ten new insights in climate science 2024 R. Schaeffer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101285
- Assessment of hydrographic features in OMIP2 models in the Tropical Indian Ocean B. Madhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-025-01664-9
- Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes O. Mehling et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed2633
- Long-term variability and trends in the Agulhas Leakage and its impacts on the global overturning H. Großelindemann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-93-2025
- Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean circulation H. Dijkstra et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-026-00945-6
- Dynamic and steric sea-level changes due to a collapsing AMOC in the Community Earth System Model R. van Westen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1353-2026
- Critical freshwater forcing for AMOC tipping in climate models – compensation matters O. Mehling et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-563-2026
- Simulating the impact of an AMOC weakening on the Antarctic Ice Sheet using a coupled climate and ice-sheet model A. Höse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1025-2026
- The effect of CO 2 ramping rate on the transient weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation C. Hankel https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2411357121
- The Effect of Indian Ocean Surface Freshwater Flux Biases On the Multi-Stable Regime of the AMOC H. Dijkstra & R. van Westen https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3246
- Multi‐Stability of the Present‐Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation H. Dijkstra et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.70049
- A saddle-node bifurcation may be causing the AMOC collapse in the Community Earth System Model R. van Westen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025
- Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century V. Portmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298
- Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model R. van Westen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6607-2025
- Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change R. van Westen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02730-w
26 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Observation-based temperature and freshwater noise over the Atlantic Ocean A. Boot & H. Dijkstra https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-115-2025
- Impacts of North American forest cover changes on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation V. Bauer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-379-2025
- Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections S. Drijfhout et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3b
- Observational constraints imply limited future Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening D. Bonan et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01709-0
- Noise-induced tipping of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under climate mitigation scenarios J. Oh et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66494-1
- Conditions for skilful spatial and temporal tipping point early warning signals J. Clarke et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae6217
- The effects of a constructed closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC tipping behavior J. Soons & H. Dijkstra https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb7887
- Quantification of the cascading tipping probability from the AMOC to the Amazon rainforest with a rare-event algorithm V. Jacques-Dumas & H. Dijkstra https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0288335
- Volcanism-induced collapse and recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation under glacial conditions G. Vettoretti et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx2124
- Physics of AMOC multistable regime shifts due to freshwater biases in an EMIC A. Boot & H. Dijkstra https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1221-2025
- The Probability of an AMOC Collapse Onset in the Twenty-First Century H. Dijkstra & R. van Westen https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-040324-024822
- Ten new insights in climate science 2024 R. Schaeffer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101285
- Assessment of hydrographic features in OMIP2 models in the Tropical Indian Ocean B. Madhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-025-01664-9
- Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes O. Mehling et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed2633
- Long-term variability and trends in the Agulhas Leakage and its impacts on the global overturning H. Großelindemann et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-93-2025
- Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean circulation H. Dijkstra et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42254-026-00945-6
- Dynamic and steric sea-level changes due to a collapsing AMOC in the Community Earth System Model R. van Westen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-22-1353-2026
- Critical freshwater forcing for AMOC tipping in climate models – compensation matters O. Mehling et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-563-2026
- Simulating the impact of an AMOC weakening on the Antarctic Ice Sheet using a coupled climate and ice-sheet model A. Höse et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1025-2026
- The effect of CO 2 ramping rate on the transient weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation C. Hankel https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2411357121
- The Effect of Indian Ocean Surface Freshwater Flux Biases On the Multi-Stable Regime of the AMOC H. Dijkstra & R. van Westen https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3246
- Multi‐Stability of the Present‐Day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation H. Dijkstra et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.70049
- A saddle-node bifurcation may be causing the AMOC collapse in the Community Earth System Model R. van Westen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2063-2025
- Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century V. Portmann et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298
- Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model R. van Westen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-6607-2025
- Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change R. van Westen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02730-w
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 25 Aug 2026
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component in the global climate system. Observations of the present-day AMOC indicate that it may weaken or collapse under global warming, with profound disruptive effects on future climate. However, AMOC weakening is not correctly represented because an important feedback is underestimated due to biases in the Atlantic's freshwater budget. Here we address these biases in several state-of-the-art climate model simulations.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component in the global...
