Articles | Volume 18, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-549-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Weakening and warming of the European Slope Current since the late 1990s attributed to basin-scale density changes
Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Robert Marsh
Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
James Harle
National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
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Robert J. Wilson, Yuri Artioli, Giovanni Galli, James Harle, Jason Holt, Ana M. Queiros, and Sarah Wakelin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3810, 2024
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Marine heatwaves are of growing concern around the world. We use a state of the art ensemble of downscaled climate models to project how often heatwaves will occur in future across northwest Europe under a high-emissions scenario. The projections show that without emissions reductions, heatwaves will occur more than half of the time in future. We show that the seafloor is expected to experience much more frequent heatwaves than the sea surface in future.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
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We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Giovanni Galli, Sarah Wakelin, James Harle, Jason Holt, and Yuri Artioli
Biogeosciences, 21, 2143–2158, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024, 2024
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This work shows that, under a high-emission scenario, oxygen concentration in deep water of parts of the North Sea and Celtic Sea can become critically low (hypoxia) towards the end of this century. The extent and frequency of hypoxia depends on the intensity of climate change projected by different climate models. This is the result of a complex combination of factors like warming, increase in stratification, changes in the currents and changes in biological processes.
Jeff Polton, James Harle, Jason Holt, Anna Katavouta, Dale Partridge, Jenny Jardine, Sarah Wakelin, Julia Rulent, Anthony Wise, Katherine Hutchinson, David Byrne, Diego Bruciaferri, Enda O'Dea, Michela De Dominicis, Pierre Mathiot, Andrew Coward, Andrew Yool, Julien Palmiéri, Gennadi Lessin, Claudia Gabriela Mayorga-Adame, Valérie Le Guennec, Alex Arnold, and Clément Rousset
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1481–1510, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1481-2023, 2023
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The aim is to increase the capacity of the modelling community to respond to societally important questions that require ocean modelling. The concept of reproducibility for regional ocean modelling is developed: advocating methods for reproducible workflows and standardised methods of assessment. Then, targeting the NEMO framework, we give practical advice and worked examples, highlighting key considerations that will the expedite development cycle and upskill the user community.
Paul R. Halloran, Jennifer K. McWhorter, Beatriz Arellano Nava, Robert Marsh, and William Skirving
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6177–6195, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6177-2021, 2021
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This paper describes the latest version of a simple model for simulating coastal oceanography in response to changes in weather and climate. The latest revision of this model makes scientific improvements but focuses on improvements that allow the model to be run simply at large scales and for long periods of time to explore the implications of (for example) future climate change along large areas of coastline.
Gandy Maria Rosales Quintana, Robert Marsh, and Luis Alfredo Icochea Salas
Ocean Sci., 17, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1385-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1385-2021, 2021
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The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) is a key influence on upwelling of nutrient-rich waters associated ecosystems off Peru. To quantify this influence, we backtrack upwelling waters in a computer model of ocean currents, annually, over 1989–2007. The EUC influence varies from year to year, dominating in warm El Niño years, when the EUC extends much closer to the Peruvian coast. In other years, more
localupwelling is associated with coastal winds, coincident with major key population shifts.
Emma L. Worthington, Ben I. Moat, David A. Smeed, Jennifer V. Mecking, Robert Marsh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 285–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021, 2021
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The RAPID array has observed the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 2004, but the AMOC was directly calculated only five times from 1957–2004. Here we create a statistical regression model from RAPID data, relating AMOC changes to density changes within the different water masses at 26° N, and apply it to historical hydrographic data. The resulting 1981–2016 record shows that the AMOC from 2008–2012 was its weakest since the mid-1980s, but it shows no overall decline.
Robert Marsh, Ivan D. Haigh, Stuart A. Cunningham, Mark E. Inall, Marie Porter, and Ben I. Moat
Ocean Sci., 13, 315–335, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-315-2017, 2017
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To the west of Britain and Ireland, a strong ocean current follows the steep slope that separates the deep Atlantic and the continental shelf. This “Slope Current” exerts an Atlantic influence on the North Sea and its ecosystems. Using a combination of computer modelling and archived data, we find that the Slope Current weakened over 1988–2007, reducing Atlantic influence on the North Sea, due to a combination of warming of the subpolar North Atlantic and weakening winds to the west of Scotland.
Jason Holt, Patrick Hyder, Mike Ashworth, James Harle, Helene T. Hewitt, Hedong Liu, Adrian L. New, Stephen Pickles, Andrew Porter, Ekaterina Popova, J. Icarus Allen, John Siddorn, and Richard Wood
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 499–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-499-2017, 2017
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Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models is one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. Here, we explore what the options are for improving this by exploring what the important physical processes are that need to be represented. We use a simple scale analysis to investigate how large the resulting models would need to be. We then compare this with how computer power is increasing to provide estimates of when this might be feasible in the future.
Heather Cannaby, Matthew D. Palmer, Tom Howard, Lucy Bricheno, Daley Calvert, Justin Krijnen, Richard Wood, Jonathan Tinker, Chris Bunney, James Harle, Andrew Saulter, Clare O'Neill, Clare Bellingham, and Jason Lowe
Ocean Sci., 12, 613–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-613-2016, 2016
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The Singapore government commissioned a modelling study of regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events. We find that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century, these being 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenario.
R. Marsh, A. E. Hickman, and J. Sharples
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3163–3178, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3163-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3163-2015, 2015
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Our relatively shallow shelf seas are warmed at the surface in spring and summer, while strong tidal currents act to mix away the surface warmth. These competing effects strongly influence the conditions for seasonal growth of the phytoplankton that support marine food webs. We have developed a versatile framework for fast computer modelling of shelf seas, to explore seasonal and year-to-year variations of warming and plankton productivity, tested against observations in different regions.
R. Marsh, V. O. Ivchenko, N. Skliris, S. Alderson, G. R. Bigg, G. Madec, A. T. Blaker, Y. Aksenov, B. Sinha, A. C. Coward, J. Le Sommer, N. Merino, and V. B. Zalesny
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1547–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, 2015
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Calved icebergs account for around 50% of total freshwater input to the ocean from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. As they melt, icebergs interact with the ocean. We have developed and tested interactive icebergs in a state-of-the-art global ocean model, showing how sea ice, temperatures, and currents are disturbed by iceberg melting. With this new model capability, we are better prepared to predict how future increases in iceberg numbers might influence the oceans and climate.
J. Holt, C. Schrum, H. Cannaby, U. Daewel, I. Allen, Y. Artioli, L. Bopp, M. Butenschon, B. A. Fach, J. Harle, D. Pushpadas, B. Salihoglu, and S. Wakelin
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1909-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Short summary
The European Slope Current (SC) is a northward-flowing current running parallel to the UK coastline. It is forced by changes in the density gradient of the wider North Atlantic Ocean. As the North Atlantic has warmed since the late 1990s, these gradients have changed strength and moved, reducing the volume and speed of water feeding into the SC. The SC flows into the North Sea, where changes in the species distribution of some plankton and fish have been seen due to the warming inputs.
The European Slope Current (SC) is a northward-flowing current running parallel to the UK...