Articles | Volume 17, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-919-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-919-2021
Research article
 | 
15 Jul 2021
Research article |  | 15 Jul 2021

Oil spill model uncertainty quantification using an atmospheric ensemble

Konstantinos Kampouris, Vassilios Vervatis, John Karagiorgos, and Sarantis Sofianos

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Cited articles

Al Shami, A., Harik, G., Alameddine, I., Bruschi, D., Garcia, D. A., and El-Fadel, M.: Risk assessment of oil spills along the Mediterranean coast: A sensitivity analysis of the choice of hazard quantification, Sci. Total Environ., 574, 234–245, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.064, 2017. 
Amir-Heidari, P. and Raie, M.: A new stochastic oil spill risk assessment model for Persian Gulf: Development, application and evaluation, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 145, 357–369, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.05.022, 2019. 
Amir-Heidari, P., Arneborg, L., Lindgren, J. F., Lindhe, A., Rosén, L., Raie, M., Axell, L., and Hassellöv, I.-M.: A state-of-the-art model for spatial and stochastic oil spill risk assessment: A case study of oil spill from a shipwreck, Environ. Int., 126, 309–320, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.037, 2019. 
Buizza, R.: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, in: Predictability of Weather and Climate, vol. 9780521848, edited by: Palmer, T. and Hagedorn, R., 459–488, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511617652.018, 2006. 
Clementi, E., Pistoia, J., Escudier, R., Delrosso, D., Drudi, M., Grandi, A., Lecci, R., Cretí, S., Ciliberti, S., Coppini, G., Masina, S., and Pinardi, N.: Mediterranean Sea Analysis and Forecast (CMEMS MED-Currents 2016–2019) (Version 1), Copernicus Monitoring Environment Marine Service (CMEMS) [Data set], https://doi.org/10.25423/CMCC/MEDSEA_ANALYSIS_FORECAST_PHY_006_013_EAS4, 2019. 
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Short summary
The wind is a source of uncertainty in oil spill modeling. We performed oil spill ensemble simulations using an atmospheric ensemble to quantify this uncertainty. We investigate the reliability of oil spill ensemble prediction used as an important forecasting tool to better plan mitigation procedures in the event of an oil spill.