Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1431-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1431-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Nov 2020
Research article |
| 18 Nov 2020
| 18 Nov 2020
Importance of El Niño reproducibility for reconstructing historical CO2 flux variations in the equatorial Pacific
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku,
Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
Hiroaki Tatebe
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku,
Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
Hiroshi Koyama
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku,
Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
Tomohiro Hajima
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku,
Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
Masahiro Watanabe
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo,
5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8564, Japan
Michio Kawamiya
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku,
Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
Related authors
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Naveen Chandra, Prabir K. Patra, Yousuke Niwa, Akihiko Ito, Yosuke Iida, Daisuke Goto, Shinji Morimoto, Masayuki Kondo, Masayuki Takigawa, Tomohiro Hajima, and Michio Watanabe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9215–9243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is intended to accomplish two goals: (1) quantify mean and uncertainty in non-fossil-fuel CO2 fluxes estimated by inverse modeling and (2) provide in-depth analyses of regional CO2 fluxes in support of emission mitigation policymaking. CO2 flux variability and trends are discussed concerning natural climate variability and human disturbances using multiple lines of evidence.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Hiroaki Tatebe, Maki A. Noguchi, Manabu Abe, Rumi Ohgaito, Akinori Ito, Dai Yamazaki, Hideki Okajima, Akihiko Ito, Kumiko Takata, Koji Ogochi, Shingo Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2197–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new Earth system model (ESM) named MIROC-ES2L. This model is based on a state-of-the-art climate model and includes carbon–nitrogen cycles for the land and multiple biogeochemical cycles for the ocean. The model's performances on reproducing historical climate and biogeochemical changes are confirmed to be reasonable, and the new model is likely to be an
optimisticmodel in projecting future climate change among ESMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernadello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-488, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach with Earth System Models to provide simulations in which all ESMs converge at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the CMIP scenarios. This new type of target-based emission-driven simulations offers a more coherent assessment across ESMs for studying both the carbon cycle and impacts under climate stabilization.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2127, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth System Models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches which have largely focussed on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We highlight the technical feasibility of achieving these simulations in coming years.
Hideo Shiogama, Hiroaki Tatebe, Michiya Hayashi, Manabu Abe, Miki Arai, Hiroshi Koyama, Yukiko Imada, Yu Kosaka, Tomoo Ogura, and Masahiro Watanabe
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1107–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We produced one of the largest single model initial-condition ensembles thus far using the MIROC6 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (MIROC6-LE). MIROC6-LE includes historical simulations, eight single forcing historical experiments, five future scenario experiments and three single forcing future experiments with 10- or 50-ensemble members. We describe the experimental design and show initial analyses. This dataset would be useful to a wide range of research communities.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Naveen Chandra, Prabir K. Patra, Yousuke Niwa, Akihiko Ito, Yosuke Iida, Daisuke Goto, Shinji Morimoto, Masayuki Kondo, Masayuki Takigawa, Tomohiro Hajima, and Michio Watanabe
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 9215–9243, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-9215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is intended to accomplish two goals: (1) quantify mean and uncertainty in non-fossil-fuel CO2 fluxes estimated by inverse modeling and (2) provide in-depth analyses of regional CO2 fluxes in support of emission mitigation policymaking. CO2 flux variability and trends are discussed concerning natural climate variability and human disturbances using multiple lines of evidence.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Rumi Ohgaito, Akitomo Yamamoto, Tomohiro Hajima, Ryouta O'ishi, Manabu Abe, Hiroaki Tatebe, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, and Michio Kawamiya
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1195–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1195-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1195-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model, selected time periods of the past were simulated. The ability to simulate the past is also an evaluation of the performance of the model in projecting global warming. Simulations for 21 000, 6000, and 127 000 years ago, and a simulation for 1000 years starting in 850 CE were simulated. The results showed that the model can generally describe past climate change.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Hiroyuki Tsujino, L. Shogo Urakawa, Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Alistair J. Adcroft, Arthur E. Amaral, Thomas Arsouze, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Claus W. Böning, Alexandra Bozec, Eric P. Chassignet, Sergey Danilov, Raphael Dussin, Eleftheria Exarchou, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Chuncheng Guo, Mehmet Ilicak, Doroteaciro Iovino, Who M. Kim, Nikolay Koldunov, Vladimir Lapin, Yiwen Li, Pengfei Lin, Keith Lindsay, Hailong Liu, Matthew C. Long, Yoshiki Komuro, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Aleksi Nummelin, Jan Klaus Rieck, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Markus Scheinert, Valentina Sicardi, Dmitry Sidorenko, Tatsuo Suzuki, Hiroaki Tatebe, Qiang Wang, Stephen G. Yeager, and Zipeng Yu
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3643–3708, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3643-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The OMIP-2 framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations is assessed by comparing multi-model means from 11 CMIP6-class global ocean–sea-ice models calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations. Many features are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet key improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2 are also identified. Thus, the present assessment justifies that future ocean–sea-ice model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO2/PM2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO2/PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Hiroaki Tatebe, Maki A. Noguchi, Manabu Abe, Rumi Ohgaito, Akinori Ito, Dai Yamazaki, Hideki Okajima, Akihiko Ito, Kumiko Takata, Koji Ogochi, Shingo Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2197–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a new Earth system model (ESM) named MIROC-ES2L. This model is based on a state-of-the-art climate model and includes carbon–nitrogen cycles for the land and multiple biogeochemical cycles for the ocean. The model's performances on reproducing historical climate and biogeochemical changes are confirmed to be reasonable, and the new model is likely to be an
optimisticmodel in projecting future climate change among ESMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.
Hiroaki Tatebe, Tomoo Ogura, Tomoko Nitta, Yoshiki Komuro, Koji Ogochi, Toshihiko Takemura, Kengo Sudo, Miho Sekiguchi, Manabu Abe, Fuyuki Saito, Minoru Chikira, Shingo Watanabe, Masato Mori, Nagio Hirota, Yoshio Kawatani, Takashi Mochizuki, Kei Yoshimura, Kumiko Takata, Ryouta O'ishi, Dai Yamazaki, Tatsuo Suzuki, Masao Kurogi, Takahito Kataoka, Masahiro Watanabe, and Masahide Kimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2727–2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
For a deeper understanding of a wide range of climate science issues, the latest version of the Japanese climate model, called MIROC6, was developed. The climate model represents observed mean climate and climate variations well, for example tropical precipitation, the midlatitude westerlies, and the East Asian monsoon, which influence human activity all over the world. The improved climate simulations could add reliability to climate predictions under global warming.
Rumi Ohgaito, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Ryouta O'ishi, Toshihiko Takemura, Akinori Ito, Tomohiro Hajima, Shingo Watanabe, and Michio Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 14, 1565–1581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1565-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The behaviour of dust in terms of climate can be investigated using past climate. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21000 years before present) is known to be dustier. We investigated the impact of plausible dust distribution on the climate of the LGM using an Earth system model and found that the higher dust load results in less cooling over the polar regions. The main finding is that radiative perturbation by the high dust loading does not necessarily cool the surface surrounding Antarctica.
Jun Ono, Hiroaki Tatebe, Yoshiki Komuro, Masato I. Nodzu, and Masayoshi Ishii
The Cryosphere, 12, 675–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-675-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has experienced rapid decline since the beginning of satellite observations. To assess the predictability of sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic Ocean and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted prediction experiments using an initialized climate model (MIROC5). The present study suggests that subsurface ocean heat content originating from the North Atlantic contributes to the skillful prediction of winter SIE at lead times up to 11 months.
Tomoo Ogura, Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Naoto Ushigami, Kazuya Hirota, Yu Someya, Youichi Kamae, Hiroaki Tatebe, and Masahide Kimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4647–4664, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4647-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4647-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Present-day climate simulated by coupled ocean atmosphere models exhibits significant biases in top-of-atmosphere radiation and clouds. This study shows that only limited part of the biases can be removed by parameter tuning in a climate model. The results underline the importance of improving parameterizations in climate models based on cloud process studies. Implementing a shallow convection parameterization is suggested as a potential measure to alleviate the biases.
Mark J. Webb, Timothy Andrews, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Sandrine Bony, Christopher S. Bretherton, Robin Chadwick, Hélène Chepfer, Hervé Douville, Peter Good, Jennifer E. Kay, Stephen A. Klein, Roger Marchand, Brian Medeiros, A. Pier Siebesma, Christopher B. Skinner, Bjorn Stevens, George Tselioudis, Yoko Tsushima, and Masahiro Watanabe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 359–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-359-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) aims to improve understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. CFMIP also aims to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation and non-linear changes. CFMIP is contributing to the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments with cloud-related model outputs.
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Jonathan J. Day, Steffen Tietsche, Mat Collins, Helge F. Goessling, Virginie Guemas, Anabelle Guillory, William J. Hurlin, Masayoshi Ishii, Sarah P. E. Keeley, Daniela Matei, Rym Msadek, Michael Sigmond, Hiroaki Tatebe, and Ed Hawkins
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2255–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Recent decades have seen significant developments in seasonal-to-interannual timescale climate prediction. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had not been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Interannual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
T. Sueyoshi, K. Saito, S. Miyazaki, J. Mori, T. Ise, H. Arakida, R. Suzuki, A. Sato, Y. Iijima, H. Yabuki, H. Ikawa, T. Ohta, A. Kotani, T. Hajima, H. Sato, T. Yamazaki, and A. Sugimoto
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-1-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the construction of a forcing data set for land surface models (LSMs) with eight meteorological variables for the 35-year period from 1979 to 2013. The data set is intended for use in a model intercomparison (MIP) study, called GTMIP. In order to prepare a set of site-fitted forcing data for LSMs with realistic yet continuous entries, four observational sites were selected to construct a blended data set using both global reanalysis and observational data.
S. Miyazaki, K. Saito, J. Mori, T. Yamazaki, T. Ise, H. Arakida, T. Hajima, Y. Iijima, H. Machiya, T. Sueyoshi, H. Yabuki, E. J. Burke, M. Hosaka, K. Ichii, H. Ikawa, A. Ito, A. Kotani, Y. Matsuura, M. Niwano, T. Nitta, R. O'ishi, T. Ohta, H. Park, T. Sasai, A. Sato, H. Sato, A. Sugimoto, R. Suzuki, K. Tanaka, S. Yamaguchi, and K. Yoshimura
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper provides an overall outlook and the Stage 1 experiment (site simulations) protocol of GTMIP, an open model intercomparison project for terrestrial Arctic, conducted as an activity of the Japan-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA). Models are driven by 34-year data created with the GRENE-TEA observations at four sites in Finland, Siberia and Alaska, and evaluated for physico-ecological key processes: energy budgets, snow, permafrost, phenology, and carbon budget.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
K. E. O. Todd-Brown, J. T. Randerson, F. Hopkins, V. Arora, T. Hajima, C. Jones, E. Shevliakova, J. Tjiputra, E. Volodin, T. Wu, Q. Zhang, and S. D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 11, 2341–2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, 2014
R. Ohgaito, T. Sueyoshi, A. Abe-Ouchi, T. Hajima, S. Watanabe, H.-J. Kim, A. Yamamoto, and M. Kawamiya
Clim. Past, 9, 1519–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1519-2013, 2013
T. Sueyoshi, R. Ohgaito, A. Yamamoto, M. O. Chikamoto, T. Hajima, H. Okajima, M. Yoshimori, M. Abe, R. O'ishi, F. Saito, S. Watanabe, M. Kawamiya, and A. Abe-Ouchi
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 819–836, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-819-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-819-2013, 2013
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Bakker, D. C. E., Pfeil, B., Landa, C. S., Metzl, N., O'Brien, K. M., Olsen, A., Smith, K., Cosca, C., Harasawa, S., Jones, S. D., Nakaoka, S., Nojiri, Y., Schuster, U., Steinhoff, T., Sweeney, C., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., Wada, C., Wanninkhof, R., Alin, S. R., Balestrini, C. F., Barbero, L., Bates, N. R., Bianchi, A. A., Bonou, F., Boutin, J., Bozec, Y., Burger, E. F., Cai, W.-J., Castle, R. D., Chen, L., Chierici, M., Currie, K., Evans, W., Featherstone, C., Feely, R. A., Fransson, A., Goyet, C., Greenwood, N., Gregor, L., Hankin, S., Hardman-Mountford, N. J., Harlay, J., Hauck, J., Hoppema, M., Humphreys, M. P., Hunt, C. W., Huss, B., Ibánhez, J. S. P., Johannessen, T., Keeling, R., Kitidis, V., Körtzinger, A., Kozyr, A., Krasakopoulou, E., Kuwata, A., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lo Monaco, C., Manke, A., Mathis, J. T., Merlivat, L., Millero, F. J., Monteiro, P. M. S., Munro, D. R., Murata, A., Newberger, T., Omar, A. M., Ono, T., Paterson, K., Pearce, D., Pierrot, D., Robbins, L. L., Saito, S., Salisbury, J., Schlitzer, R., Schneider, B., Schweitzer, R., Sieger, R., Skjelvan, I., Sullivan, K. F., Sutherland, S. C., Sutton, A. J., Tadokoro, K., Telszewski, M., Tuma, M., van Heuven, S. M. A. C., Vandemark, D., Ward, B., Watson, A. J., and Xu, S.: A multi-decade record of high-quality fCO2
data in version 3 of the Surface Ocean CO2 ATlas (SOCAT), Earth Syst.
Sci. Data, 8, 383–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-383-2016, 2016.
Bellenger, H., Guilyardi, E., Leloup, J., Lengaigne, M., and Vialard, J.:
ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 42,
1999–2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1783-z, 2014.
Bloom, S. C., Takacs, L. L., da Silva, A. M., and Ledvina, D.: Data
assimilation using incremental analysis updates, Mon. Weather Rev., 124,
1256–1271, 1996.
Brasseur, P., Gruber, N., Barciela, R., Brander, K., Doron, M., El
Moussaoui, A., Hobday, A. J., Huret, M., Kremeur, A.-S., Lehodey, P.,
Matear, R., Moulin, C., Murtugudde, R., Senina, I., and Svendsen, E.:
Integrating biogeochemistry and ecology into ocean data assimilation
systems, Oceanography, 22, 206–215, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.80, 2009.
Chikira, M. and Sugiyama, M.: A cumulus parameterization with
state-dependent entrainment rate, Part I: Description and sensitivity to
temperature and humidity profiles, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2171–2193,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3316.1, 2010.
Doney, S. C., Bopp, L., and Long, M. C.: Historical and future trends in
ocean climate and biogeochemistry, Oceanography, 27, 108–119,
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2014.14, 2014.
Doney, S. C., Balch, W. M., Fabry, V. J., and Feely, R. A.: Ocean
acidification: A critical emerging problem for the ocean sciences,
Oceanography, 22, 16–25, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.93, 2009a.
Doney, S. C., Fabry, V. J., Feely, R. A., and Kleypas, J. A.: Ocean
acidification: The other CO2 problem, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 1,
169–192, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834, 2009b.
Dong, F., Li, Y., Wang, B., Huang, W., Shi, Y., and Dong, W.: Global
air–sea CO2 flux in 22 CMIP5 models: Multiyear mean and interannual
variability, J. Clim., 29, 2407–2431, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00788.1, 2016.
Dong, F., Li, Y., and Wang, B.: Assessment of responses of Tropical Pacific
air–sea CO2 flux to ENSO in 14 CMIP5 models, J. Clim., 30, 8595–8613,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0543.1, 2017.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.
J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Feely, R. A., Wanninkhof, R., Goyet, C., Archer, D. E., and Takahashi, T.:
Variability of CO2 distributions and sea–air fluxes in the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific during the 1991–1994 El Niño, Deep-Sea Res.
II, 44, 1851–1867, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(97)00061-1, 1997.
Feely, R. A., Wanninkhof, R., Takahashi, T., and Tans, P.: Influence of El
Niño on the equatorial Pacific contribution to atmospheric CO2
accumulation, Nature, 398, 597–601, https://doi.org/10.1038/19273, 1999.
Feely, R. A., Wanninkhof, R., McGillis, W., Carr, M.-E., and Cosca, C. E.:
Effects of wind speed and gas exchange parameterizations on the air–sea
CO2 fluxes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 109,
C08S03, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JC001896, 2004.
Gill, A. E.: Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation,
Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 106, 447–462, 1980.
Guilyardi, E, Braconnot, P., Jin, F.-F., Kim, S. T., Kolasinski, M., Li, T.,
and Musat, I.: Atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in a coupled GCM with a
modified atmospheric convection scheme, J. Clim., 22, 5698–5718,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2815.1, 2009.
Hajima, T., Abe, M., Arakawa, O., Suzuki, T., Komuro, Y., Ogura, T., Ogochi,
K., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Ohgaito, R.,
Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Ito, A., Takata, K., Watanabe, S., Kawamiya, M., and
Tachiiri, K.: MIROC MIROC-ES2L model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP
historical, Earth System Grid Federation, Version: 20191118, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5602, 2019.
Hajima, T., Watanabe, M., Yamamoto, A., Tatebe, H., Noguchi, M. A., Abe, M.,
Ohgaito, R., Ito, A., Yamazaki, D., Okajima, H., Ito, A., Takata, K.,
Ogochi, K., Watanabe, S., and Kawamiya, M.: Development of the MIROC-ES2L
Earth system model and the evaluation of biogeochemical processes and
feedbacks, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2197–2244, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2197-2020,
2020.
Hirahara, S., Ishii, M., and Fukuda, Y.: Centennial-scale sea surface
temperature analysis and its uncertainty, J. Clim., 27, 57–75,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00837.1, 2014.
Huang, B., Kinter, J. L., and Schopf, P. S.: Ocean data assimilation using
intermittent analyses and continuous model error correction, Adv. Atmos.
Sci., 19, 965–992, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-002-0059-z, 2002.
Imada, Y. and Kimoto, M.: Improvement of thermocline structure that affect
ENSO performance in a coupled GCM, SOLA 2, 164–167,
https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2006-042, 2006.
IPCC: Climate change 2013: The
physical science basis, in: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited
by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K.,
Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Mdgley, P. M.,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, p. 1535, 2013.
Ishii, M. and Kimoto, M.: Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content
variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections, J.
Oceanogr., 65, 287–299, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-009-0027-7, 2009.
Ishii, M., Shouji A., Sugimoto, S., and Matsumoto, T.: Objective analyses of
sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th
century using ICOADS and the Kobe Collection, Int. J. Climatol., 25,
865–879, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1169, 2005.
Jones, C. D., Collins, M., Cox, P. M., and Spall, S. A.: The carbon cycle
response to ENSO: A coupled climate–carbon cycle model study, J. Clim., 14,
4113–4129, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4113:TCCRTE>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
K-1 model developers: K-1 coupled GCM (MIROC) description, K-1 Tech. Rep.,
1, edited by: Hasumi, H. and Emori, S., Center for Climate System Research,
the Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, 34 pp., 2004.
Kawamiya, M., Hajima, T., Tachiiri, K., Watanabe, S., and Yokohata, T.: Two decades of Earth system modeling with an emphasis on Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), Prog. Earth Planet Sci., 7, 64, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00369-5, 2020.
Keeling, C. D. and Revelle, R.: Effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation
on the atmospheric content of carbon dioxide, Meteoritics, 20, 437–450,
1985.
Keenlyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L., and Roeckner,
E.: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector,
Nature, 453, 84–88, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06921, 2008.
Kobayashi, S., Ota, Y., Harada, Y., Ebita, A., Moriya, M., Onoda, H., Onogi,
K., Kamahori, H., Kobayashi, C., Endo, H., Miyaoka, K., and Takahashi, K.:
The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics, J.
Meteorol. Soc. Jap., 93, 5–48, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001, 2015.
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C. E., and Schuster, U.: Recent
variability of the global ocean carbon sink, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 28,
927–949, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GB004853, 2014.
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C. E.:
Decadal variations and trends of the global ocean carbon sink, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 30, 1396–1417, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005359, 2016.
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., and Bakker, D. C. E.: An
updated observation-based global monthly gridded sea surface pCO2 and
air-sea CO2 flux product from 1982 through 2015 and its monthly
climatology (NCEI Accession 0160558), Version 2.2, NOAA National Centers for
Environmental Information, Dataset, 2017.
Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., Bakker, D. C. E., Stemmler,
I., and Six, K. D.: Strengthening seasonal marine CO2 variations due to
increasing atmospheric CO2, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 146–150,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0057-x, 2018.
Le Borgne, R., Feely, R. A., and Mackey, D. J.: Carbon fluxes in the
equatorial Pacific: A synthesis of the JGOFS programme, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II,
49, 2425–2442, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(02)00043-7, 2002.
Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Canadell, J. G., Marland, G., Bopp,
L., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A., Foster, P.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gurney, K., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Hungintford,
C., Levy, P. E., Lomas, M. R., Majkut, J., Metzl, N., Ometto, J. P., Peters,
G. P., Prentice, I. C., Randerson, J. T., Running, S. W., Sarmiento, J. L.,
Schuster, U., Sitch, S., Takahashi, T., Viovy, N., van der Werf, G. R., and
Woodward, F. I.: Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide, Nat.
Geosci., 2, 831–836, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo689, 2009.
Le Quéré, C., Takahashi, T., Buitenhuis, E. T., Rödenbeck, C.,
and Sutherland, S. C.: Impact of climate change and variability on the
global oceanic sink of CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB4007,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GB003599, 2010.
Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., Manning, A. C., Boden, T. A., Tans, P. P., Houghton, R. A., Keeling, R. F., Alin, S., Andrews, O. D., Anthoni, P., Barbero, L., Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Currie, K., Delire, C., Doney, S. C., Friedlingstein, P., Gkritzalis, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Haverd, V., Hoppema, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Körtzinger, A., Landschützer, P., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Melton, J. R., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Monteiro, P. M. S., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S., O'Brien, K., Olsen, A., Omar, A. M., Ono, T., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rödenbeck, C., Salisbury, J., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Skjelvan, I., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Walker, A. P., Wiltshire, A. J., and Zaehle, S.: Global Carbon Budget 2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016.
Li, H., Ilyina, T., Müller, W. A., and Sienz, F.: Decadal predictions of
the North Atlantic CO2 uptake, Nat. Commun., 7, 11076,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11076, 2016.
Li, H., Ilyina, T., Müller, W. A., and
Landschützer, P.: Predicting the variable ocean carbon
sink, Sci. Adv., 5, eaav6471, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav6471, 2019.
McKinley, G. A., Follows, M. J., and Marshall, J.: Mechanisms of air–sea
CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific and the North Atlantic,
Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB2011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002179, 2004.
Mochizuki, T., Ishii, M., Kimoto, M., Chikamoto, Y., Watanabe, M., Nozawa,
T., Sakamoto, T. T., Shiogama, H., Awaji, T., Sugiura, N., Toyoda, T.,
Yasunaka, S., Tatebe, H., and Mori, M.: Pacific decadal oscillation
hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction, P. Nat. Acad. Sci.
USA, 107, 1833–1837, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906531107, 2010.
Obata, A. and Kitamura, Y.: Interannual variability of the sea–air
exchange of CO2 from 1961 to 1998 simulated with a global ocean
circulation-biogeochemistry model, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3337,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JC001088, 2003.
Park, G.-H., Wanninkhof, R., Doney, S. C., Takahashi, T., Lee, K., Feely, R.
A., Sabine, C. L., Triñanes, J., and Lima, I.: Variability of global net
sea–air CO2 fluxes over the last three decades using empirical
relationships, Tellus B, 62, 352–368,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00498.x, 2010.
Park, J.-Y., Stock, C. A., Yang, X., Dunne, J. P., Rosati, A., John, J., and
Zhang, S.: Modeling global ocean biogeochemistry with physical data
assimilation: A pragmatic solution to the Equatorial instability, J. Adv.
Model. Earth Syst., 10, 891–906, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001223, 2018.
Patra, P. K., Maksyutov, S., Ishizawa, M., Nakazawa, T., Takahashi, T., and
Ukita, J.: Interannual and decadal changes in the sea–air CO2 flux
from atmospheric CO2 inverse modeling, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19,
GB4013, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002257, 2005.
Pohlmann, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Köhl, A., Stammer, D., and Marotzke, J.:
Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis:
Effects on the North Atlantic, J. Clim., 22, 3926–3938,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2535.1, 2009.
Prather, M. J.: Numerical advection by conservation of second-order moments,
J. Geophys. Res., 91, 6671–6681, 1986.
Rödenbeck, C., Bakker, D. C. E., Metzl, N., Olsen, A., Sabine, C.,
Cassar, N., Reum, F., Keeling, R. F., and Heimann, M.: Interannual sea–air
CO2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer
scheme, Biogeosciences, 11, 4599–4613, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4599-2014, 2014.
Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., Gruber, N., Key, R. M., Lee, K., Bullister, J.
L., Wanninkhof, R., Wong, C. S., Wallace, D. W. R., Tilbrook, B., Millero,
F. J., Peng, T.-H., Kozyr, A., Ono, T., and Rios, A. F.: The oceanic sink
for anthropogenic CO2, Science, 305, 367–371,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1097403, 2004.
Smith, D. M., Cusack, S., Colman, A. W., Folland, C. K., Harris, G. R., and
Murphy, J. M.: Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade
from a global climate model, Science, 317, 796–799,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139540, 2007.
Sospedra-Alfonso, R. and Boer, G. J.: Assessing the impact of
initialization on decadal prediction skill, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47,
GL086361, https://doi.org/1029/2019GL086361, 2020.
Takahashi, T., Olafsson, J., Goddard, J. G., Chipman, D. W., and Sutherland,
S. C.: Seasonal variation of CO2 and nutrients in the high-latitude
surface oceans: A comparative study, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 7,
843–878, https://doi.org/10.1029/93GB02263, 1993.
Tatebe, H. and Hasumi, H.: Formation mechanism of the Pacific equatorial
thermocline revealed by a general circulation model with a high accuracy
tracer advection scheme, Ocean Model., 35, 245–252, 2010.
Tatebe, H., Ishii, M., Mochizuki, T., Chikamoto, Y., Sakamoto, T. T.,
Komuro, Y., Mori, M., Yasunaka, S., Watanabe, M., Ogochi, K., Suzuki, T.,
Nishimura, T., and Kimoto, M.: The initialization of the MIROC climate
models with hydrographic data assimilation for decadal prediction, J.
Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Pt. A, 90, 275–294, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-A14, 2012.
Tatebe, H., Tanaka, Y., Komuro, Y., and Hasumi, H.: Impact of deep ocean
mixing on the climatic mean state in the Southern Ocean, Sci. Rep., 8,
14479, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32768-6, 2018.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and
the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Tommasi, D., Stock, C. A., Hobday, A. J., Methot, R., Kaplan, I. C., Eveson, J. P., Holsman, K., Miller, T. J., Gaichas, S., Gehlen, M., Pershing, A., Vecchi, G. A., Msadek, R., Delworth, T., Eakin, C. M., Haltuch, M. A., Séférian, R., Spillman, C. M., Hartog, J. R., Siedlecki, S., Samhouri, J. F., Muhling, B., Asch, R. G., Pinsky, M. L., Saba, V. S., Kapnick, S. B., Gaitan, C. F., Rykaczewski, R. R., Alexander, M. A., Xue, Y., Pegion, K. V., Lynch, P., Payne, M. R., Kristiansen, T., Lehodey, P., and Werner, F. E.: Managing living marine resources in a dynamic
environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts, Prog.
Oceanogr., 152, 15–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011, 2017a.
Tommasi, D., Stock, C. A., Alexander, M. A., Yang, X., Rosati, A., and
Vecchi, G. A.: Multi-annual climate predictions for fisheries: An assessment
of skill of sea surface temperature forecasts for large marine ecosystems,
Front. Mar. Sci., 4, 201, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00201, 2017b.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): Adoption of
the Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1 UNFCCC, 2015.
Valsala, V. and Maksyutov, S.: Simulation and assimilation of global ocean
pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes using ship observations of surface
ocean pCO2 in a simplified biogeochemical offline model, Tellus B, 62, 821–840, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00495.x, 2010.
Wanninkhof, R.: Relationship between wind speed and gas exchange over the
ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 7373–7382, https://doi.org/10.1029/92JC00188, 1992.
Wanninkhof, R.: Relationship between wind speed and gas exchange over the
ocean revisited, Limnol. Oceanogr. Method., 12, 351–362,
https://doi.org/10.4319/lom.2014.12.351, 2014.
Watanabe, M., Suzuki, T., O'ishi, R., Komuro, Y., Watanabe, S., Emori, S.,
Takemura, T., Chikira, M., Ogura, T., Sekiguchi, M., Takata, K., Yamazaki,
D., Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Hasumi, H., Tatebe, H., and Kimoto, M.:
Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate
sensitivity, J. Clim., 23, 6312–6335, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1, 2010.
Watanabe, S., Hajima, T., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Takemura, T., Okajima,
H., Nozawa, T., Kawase, H., Abe, M., Yokohata, T., Ise, T., Sato, H., Kato,
E., Takata, K., Emori, S., and Kawamiya, M.: MIROC-ESM 2010: Model
description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments, Geosci. Model
Dev., 4, 845–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-845-2011, 2011.
Watanabe, M., Tatebe, H., Koyama, H., Hajima, T., Watanabe, M., and Kawamiya, M.: Importance of El Niño reproducibility for reconstructing historical CO2 flux variations in the equatorial Pacific, OSF, https://osf.io/mpk52, last access: 17 November 2020.
Weiss, R.: Carbon dioxide in water and seawater: The solubility of a
non-ideal gas, Mar. Chem., 2, 203–215, https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4203(74)90015-2,
1974.
Short summary
Carbon flux between air and sea is known to fluctuate in response to inherent climate variations. In this study, observed ocean hydrographic data were assimilated into Earth system models, and the carbon flux in the equatorial Pacific was evaluated. Our results suggest that, when observed ocean hydrographic data are assimilated into models for carbon cycle predictions on interannual to decadal timescales, the reproducibility of the internal climate variations in the model itself is important.
Carbon flux between air and sea is known to fluctuate in response to inherent climate...
