Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
Ocean Sci., 14, 1435–1447, 2018
Ocean Sci., 14, 1435–1447, 2018
Research article
20 Nov 2018
Research article | 20 Nov 2018

Better Baltic Sea wave forecasts: improving resolution or introducing ensembles?

Torben Schmith et al.

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Cited articles

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Alves, J.-H. G., Wittmann, P., Sestak, M., Schauer, J., Stripling, S., Bernier, N. B., McLean, J., Chao, Y., Chawla, A., Tolman, H., Nelson, G., and Klotz, S.: The NCEP–FNMOC combined wave ensemble product: Expanding benefits of interagency probabilistic forecasts to the oceanic environment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 1893–1905, 2013. 
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Behrens, A.: Development of an ensemble prediction system for ocean surface waves in a coastal area, Ocean Dyn., 65, 469–486,, 2015. 
Short summary
Using the Baltic Sea as an example, the benefit of increased wave model resolution as opposed to ensemble forecasting is examined, on the premise that the extra computational effort tends to be of the same order of magnitude in both cases. For offshore waters, an ensemble mean is shown to outperform high-resolution modeling. However, for nearshore or shallow waters, where fine-scale depth or coastal features gain importance, this is not necessarily found to be the case.