Inferring the zonal distribution of measured changes in the meridional overturning circulation

Abstract. Recently, hydrographic measurements have been used to argue that the meridional overturning circulation at 25° N has decreased by 30% over the last 50 years. Here we show that the most likely interpretation consistent with this approach (i.e., with the dynamic method together with a level-of-no-motion assumption and Ekman dynamics) is that any decrease in strength of the deep western boundary current must have been compensated, not by a basin-wide increase in upper layer southward flow, but by changes in the nonlinear region immediately outside of the Florida Straits.