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Ocean Science An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-44
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2020-44
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  08 Jul 2020

08 Jul 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal OS.

Marine climate change over the eastern Agulhas Bank of South Africa

Mark R. Jury1,2 Mark R. Jury
  • 1Geography Dept, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa 3886, South Africa
  • 2Physics Dept., University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez, 00681, USA

Abstract. The rate of change in the marine environment along the south coast of South Africa (32–37 S, 20–30 E) is studied using reanalysis observations 1900–2015 and coupled ensemble model projections 1980–2100. Outcomes are influenced by resolution and time-span: ~1 degree datasets covering the whole period capture large-scale changes, while ~0.5 degree datasets in the satellite era better distinguish the cross-shelf gradients. Although sea surface temperatures off-shore are warming rapidly (.05 °C/yr since 1980), a trend toward easterly winds and a stronger Agulhas Current have intensified near-shore upwelling (-.03 °C/yr). The sub-tropical ridge during summer is drawn poleward by global warming and high phase southern oscillation index. Cooler inshore sea temperatures suppress latent heat flux and contribute to coastal desiccation (-.005 mm day−1/yr) and vegetation warming (.1 °C/yr) since 1980. Coupled ensemble projections from the Hadley and European models indicate that the shift toward drier weather and easterly winds may be sustained through the 21st century.

Mark R. Jury

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Short summary
The rate of change in the marine environment along the south coast of South Africa (32–37 S, 20–30 E) is studied using reanalysis observations 1900-2015 and coupled ensemble model projections 1980–2100. Although sea surface temperatures off-shore are warming rapidly, a trend toward easterly winds and stronger shelf-edge currents have intensified near-shore upwelling (-.03 °C/yr) and contribute to a drier climate.
The rate of change in the marine environment along the south coast of South Africa (32–37 S,...
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