Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-27
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2021-27

  29 Mar 2021

29 Mar 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal OS.

Oil spill model uncertainty quantification using an atmospheric ensemble

Konstantinos Kampouris, Vassilios Vervatis, John Karagiorgos, and Sarantis Sofianos Konstantinos Kampouris et al.
  • University of Athens, Department of Physics, Athens, Greece

Abstract. We investigate the impact of atmospheric forcing uncertainties on the prediction of dispersion of pollutants in the marine environment. Ensemble simulations consisted of 50 members were carried out using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and the oil spill model MEDSLIK-II in the Aegean Sea. A deterministic control run, using the unperturbed wind of the ECMWF high resolution system, served as reference for the oil spill prediction. We considered oil spill rates and duration similar to major accidents of the past (e.g. the Prestige case) and we performed simulations for different seasons and oil spill types. Oil spill performance metrics and indices were introduced in the context of probabilistic hazard assessment. Results suggest that oil spill model uncertainties were sensitive to the atmospheric forcing uncertainties, especially to phase differences in the intensity and direction of the wind among members. An oil spill ensemble prediction system based on model uncertainty of the atmospheric forcing, shows great potential for predicting pathways of oil spill transport, alongside a deterministic simulation, increasing the reliability of the model prediction and providing important information for the control and mitigation strategies in the event of an oil spill accident.

Konstantinos Kampouris et al.

Status: open (until 24 May 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on os-2021-27', George Zodiatis, 14 Apr 2021 reply

Konstantinos Kampouris et al.

Konstantinos Kampouris et al.

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Short summary
The wind is a source of uncertainties in oil spill modelling. We performed oil spill ensemble simulations, using an atmospheric ensemble to quantify these uncertainties. We investigate the reliability of oil spill ensemble prediction used as an important forecasting tool to better plan mitigation procedures, in the event of an oil spill.