<p>The rate of change in the marine environment along the south coast of South Africa (32–37 S, 20–30 E) is studied using reanalysis observations 1900–2015 and coupled ensemble model projections 1980–2100. Outcomes are influenced by resolution and time-span: ~1 degree datasets covering the whole period capture large-scale changes, while ~0.5 degree datasets in the satellite era better distinguish the cross-shelf gradients. Although sea surface temperatures off-shore are warming rapidly (.05 °C/yr since 1980), a trend toward easterly winds and a stronger Agulhas Current have intensified near-shore upwelling (-.03 °C/yr). The sub-tropical ridge during summer is drawn poleward by global warming and high phase southern oscillation index. Cooler inshore sea temperatures suppress latent heat flux and contribute to coastal desiccation (-.005 mm day<sup>−1</sup>/yr) and vegetation warming (.1 °C/yr) since 1980. Coupled ensemble projections from the Hadley and European models indicate that the shift toward drier weather and easterly winds may be sustained through the 21st century.</p>