High resolution stochastic downscaling method for ocean forecasting models and its application to the Red Sea dynamics

Abstract. High-resolution modelling of a large ocean domain requires significant computational resources. The main purpose of this study is to develop an efficient tool for downscaling the lower resolution data such as available from Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). Common methods of downscaling CMEMS ocean models utilize their lower resolution output as boundary conditions for local, higher resolution hydrodynamic ocean models. Such methods reveal greater details of spatial distribution of ocean variables; however, they increase the cost of computations, and often reduce the model skill due to the so called double penalty effect. This effect is a common problem for many high-resolution models where predicted features are displaced in space or time. This paper presents a Stochastic Deterministic Downscaling (SDD) method, which is an efficient tool for downscaling of ocean models based on the combination of deterministic and stochastic approaches. The ability of the SDD method is first demonstrated in an idealised case when the true solution is known a priori. Then the method is applied to create an operational eddy-resolving Stochastic Model of the Red Sea (SMORS) with the parent model being the eddy-permitting Mercator Global Ocean Analysis and Forecast System. The stochastic component is data-driven rather than equation-driven and applied to the areas smaller than the Rossby radius, where distributions of ocean variables are more coherent. The method, based on objective analysis, is similar to what is used for data assimilation in ocean models, and stems from the philosophy of 2D turbulence. The SMORS model produces higher resolution (1/24^th degree latitude mesh) oceanographic data using the output from a coarser resolution (1/12^th degree mesh) parent model available from CMEMS. The values on the high-resolution mesh are computed under condition of minimisation of the cost function which represents the error between the model and true solution. The SMORS model has been validated against Sea Surface Temperature and ARGO floats observations. Comparisons show that the model and observations are in good agreement and SMORS is not subject to the ‘double penalty’ effect. SMORS is very fast to run on a typical desktop PC and can be relocated to another area of the ocean.