OS Ocean Science OS Ocean Sci. 1812-0792 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/os-8-983-2012 Validation of the NEMO-ERSEM operational ecosystem model for the North West European Continental Shelf Edwards K. P. 1 3 Barciela R. 1 Butenschön M. 2 Met Office, Exeter, UK Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK now at: Environment Agency, Exeter, UK 21 11 2012 8 6 983 1000 Copyright: © 2012 K. P. Edwards et al. 2012 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://os.copernicus.org/articles/8/983/2012/os-8-983-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://os.copernicus.org/articles/8/983/2012/os-8-983-2012.pdf

This paper details updates to the Met Office's operational coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model from the 7 km Medium-Resolution Continental Shelf – POLCOMS-ERSEM (MRCS-PE) system (Siddorn et al., 2007) to the 7 km Atlantic Margin Model NEMO-ERSEM (AMM7-NE) system. We also provide a validation of the ecosystem component of the new operational system. Comparisons have been made between the model variables and available in situ, satellite and climatological data. The AMM7-NE system has also been benchmarked against the MRCS-PE system. The transition to the new AMM7-NE system was successful and it has been running operationally since March 2012 and has been providing products through MyOcean (<a href="http://www.myocean.eu.org" target="_blank">http://www.myocean.eu.org</a>) since that time. The results presented herein show the AMM7-NE system performs better than the MRCS-PE system with the most improvement in the model nutrient fields. The problem of nutrient accumulation in the MRCS-PE system appears to be solved in the new AMM7-NE system with nutrient fields improved throughout the domain as discussed in Sect. 4. Improvements in model chlorophyll are also seen but are more modest.

 European Commission MYOCEAN - Development and pre-operational validation of upgraded GMES Marine Core Services and capabilities (218812) References Allen, J. I., Holt, J. T., Blackford, J., and Proctor, R.: Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM, J. Mar. Syst., 68, 381–404, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.01.005">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.01.005</a>, 2007. Barciela, R., Mahdon, R., Edwards, K., Miller, P., Shutler, J., Jonas, P., Murdoch, N., Whither, A., and Roast, S.: Operational monitoring and forecasting of water quality through combining a model, satellite Earth observations and in situ sampling: the AlgaRisk initiative, in preparation, 2012. Baretta, J. W., Admiraal, C. F., Malschaert, J. F. P., and Ruardij, P.: The construction of the pelagic submodel, in: Tidal flat estuaries: Simulation and analysis of the Ems estuary, edited by: Baretta, J. W. and Ruardij, P., Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 77–104, 1988. Baretta, J. W., Ebenhoh, W., and Ruardij, P.: The European-Regional-Seas-Ecosystem-Model, a complex marine ecosystem model, Neth. J. Sea. Res., 33, 233–246, 1995. Berx, B., Dickey-Collas, M., Skogen, M. D., De Roeck, Y.-H., Klein, H., Barciela, R., Forster, R. M., Dombrowsky, E., Huret, M., Payne, M., Sagarminaga, Y., and Schrum, C: Does operational oceanography address the needs of fisheries and applied environmental scientists?, Oceanography, 24, 166–171, 2011. Blackford, J. C., Allen, J. I., and Gilbert, F. J.: Ecosystem dynamics at six contrasting sites: A generic modelling study, J. Marine Syst., 52, 191–215, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.02.004">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.02.004</a>, 2004. Butenschön, M., Holt, J., Artioli, Y., Wakelin, S. L., Saux-Picart, S., de Mora, L., Blackford, J., and Allen, J. I.: A Biogeography of the seasonal phytoplankton dynamics in the north-west European shelf seas, in preparation, 2012. Ciavatta, S., Torres, R., Saux-Picart, S., and Allen, J. I.: Can ocean color assimilation improve biogeochemical hindcasts in shelf seas?, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 116, C12043, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007219">https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007219</a>, 2011. Craig, P. D. and Banner, M. L.: Modeling wave-enhanced turbulence in the ocean surface-layer, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 2546–2559, 1994. de Rada, S., Arnone, R. A., and Anderson, S.: Bio-physical ocean modeling in the Gulf of Mexico, OCEANS, 1–3, 1–7, 2009. Ellett, D. J. and Martin, J. H. A.: The physical and chemical oceanography of the Rockall Channel, Deep-Sea Res., 20, 585–625, 1973. Garcia, H. E., Locarnini, R. A., Boyer, T. P., Antonov, J. I., Zweng, M. M., Baranova, O. K., and Johnson, D. R.: World ocean atlas 2009, volume 4: Nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicate), Noaa atlas Nesdis 71, edited by: Levitus, S., US Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 398 pp., 2010. Gattuso, J. P., Frankignoulle, M., and Wollast, R.: Carbon and carbonate metabolism in coastal aquatic ecosystems, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 29, 405–434, 1998. Geider, R. J., MacIntyre, H. L., and Kana, T. M.: Dynamic model of phytoplankton growth and acclimation: Responses of the balanced growth rate and the chlorophyll a:Carbon ratio to light, nutrient-limitation and temperature, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 148, 187–200, 1997. Glibert, P. M., Allen, J. I., Bouwman, A. F., Brown, C. W., Flynn, K. J., Lewitus, A. J., and Madden, C. J.: Modeling of HABs and eutrophication status, advances, challenges, J. Marine Syst., 83, 262–275, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2010.05.004">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2010.05.004</a>, 2010. Gohin, F., Druon, J. N., and Lampert, L.: A five channel chlorophyll concentration algorithm applied to SeaWifs data processed by SeaDas in coastal waters, Int. J. Remote Sens., 23, 1639–1661, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01431160110071879">https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160110071879</a>, 2002. Gohin, F., Loyer, S., Lunven, M., Labry, C., Froidefond, J. M., Delmas, D., Huret, M., and Herbland, A.: Satellite-derived parameters for biological modelling in coastal waters: Illustration over the eastern continental shelf of the Bay of Biscay, Remote Sens. Environ., 95, 29–46, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2004.11.007">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2004.11.007</a>, 2005. Green, D., Uccellini, L., Colton, M., Turner, E., Scheurer, D., Valette-Silver, N., Matlock, G., Brown, C. W., and Wilson, D.: Toward a marine ecological forecasting system, OCEANS, 1–3, 2210–2215, 2009. Holt, J. T. and James, I. D.: An s coordinate density evolving model of the Northwest European continental shelf – 1, model description and density structure, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 106, 14015–14034, 2001. Holt, J. T., Allen, J. I., Proctor, R., and Gilbert, F.: Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 1 model overview and assessment of the hydrodynamics, J. Marine Syst., 57, 167–188, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.04.008">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.04.008</a>, 2005. Holt, J., Harel, J., Proctor, R., Michel, S., Ashworth, M., Batstone, C., Allen, J. I., Holmes, R., Smyth, T. J., Haines, K., Bretherton, D., and Smith, G.: Modelling the global coastal ocean, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 367, 939–951, 2009. Holt, J., Butenschön, M., Wakelin, S. L., Artioli, Y., and Allen, J. I.: Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario, Biogeosciences, 9, 97–117, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-97-2012">https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-97-2012</a>, 2012. Janssen, F., Edwards, K. P., and Tian, T.: The potential use of operational models in marine spatial management, ICES Annual Science Conference, Gdansk, Poland, 2011. Jolliff, J. K., Kindle, J. C., Shulman, I., Penta, B., Friedrichs, M. A. M., Helber, R., and Arnone, R. A.: Summary diagrams for coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem model skill assessment, J. Marine Syst., 76, 64–82, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.014">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.014</a>, 2009. Justic, D., Bierman, V. J., Scavia, D., and Hetland, R. D.: Forecasting Gulf's hypoxia: The next 50 years?, Estuar Coast, 30, 791–801, 2007. Kelly-Gerreyn, B. A., Hydes, D. J., Hartman, M. C., Siddorn, J., Hyder, P., and Holt, M. W.: The phosphoric acid leak from the wreck of the MV Ece in the English Channel in 2006: Assessment with a ship of opportunity, an operational ecosystem model and historical data, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 54, 850–862, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2007.04.020">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2007.04.020</a>, 2007. Lazzari, P., Teruzzi, A., Salon, S., Campagna, S., Calonaci, C., Colella, S., Tonani, M., and Crise, A.: Pre-operational short-term forecasts for Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry, Ocean Sci., 6, 25–39, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-6-25-2010">https://doi.org/10.5194/os-6-25-2010</a>, 2010. Levier, B., Treguier, A. M., Madec, G., and Garnier, V.: Free surface and variable volume in the NEMO code, MERSEA IP report WP09-CNRS-STR03-1A, 47 pp., 2007. Longhurst, A., Sathyendranath, S., Platt, T., and Caverhill, C.: An estimate of global primary production in the ocean from satellite radiometer data, J. Plankton Res., 17, 1245–1271, 1995. Madec, G.: NEMO ocean engine, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France, 2008. Mahdon, R., Edwards, K. P., Barciela, R., Miller, P., Shutler, J. D., Roast, S., Jonas, P., Murdoch, N., and Wither, A.: Advances in operational ecosystem modelling and the prediction of nuisance algal blooms, ICES Annual Science Conference, Nantes, France, 2010. Martin, A. J., Hines, A., and Bell, M. J.: Data assimilation in the FOAM operational short-range ocean forecasting system: A description of the scheme and its impact, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 981–995, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/Qj.74">https://doi.org/10.1002/Qj.74</a>, 2007. McGillicuddy, D. J.: Models of harmful algal blooms conceptual, empirical, and numerical approaches preface, J. Marine Syst., 83, 105–107, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2010.06.008">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2010.06.008</a>, 2010. Moll, A. and Radach, G.: Review of three-dimensional ecological modelling related to the North Sea shelf system – part 1: Models and their results, Prog. Oceanogr., 57, 175–217, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0079-6611(03)00067-3">https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-6611(03)00067-3</a>, 2003. New, A. L., Barnard, S., Herrmann, P., and Molines, J. M.: On the origin and pathway of the saline inflow to the Nordic Seas: Insights from models, Prog. Oceanogr., 48, 255–287, 2001. Nobre, A. M., Ferreira, J. G., Newton, A., Simas, T., Icely, J. D., and Neves, R.: Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models, J. Marine Syst., 56, 375–390, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.03.003">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.03.003</a>, 2005. O'Dea, E. J., Arnold, A. K., Edwards, K. P., Furner, R., Holt, J. T., Hyder, P., Liu, H., Martin, M. J., Siddorn, J. R., Storkey, D., and While, J.: An operational ocean forecast system incorporating NEMO and SST data assimilation for the tidally driven european north-west shelf, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 5, 3–17, 2012. O'Neill, C. K., Polton, J. A., Holt, J. T., and O'Dea, E. J.: Modelling temperature and salinity in Liverpool Bay and the Irish Sea: sensitivity to model type and surface forcing, Ocean Sci., 8, 903–913, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-8-903-2012">https://doi.org/10.5194/os-8-903-2012</a>, 2012. Pauly, D. and Christensen, V.: Primary production required to sustain global fisheries (vol 374, pg 255, 1995), Nature, 376, 279–279, 1995. Petihakis, G., Smith, C. J., Triantafyllou, G., Sourlantzis, G., Papadopoulou, K. N., Pollani, A., and Korres, G.: Scenario testing of fisheries management strategies using a high resolution ERSEM-POM ecosystem model, Ices J. Mar. Sci., 64, 1627–1640, 2007. Pinardi, N. and Coppini, G.: Preface "Operational oceanography in the Mediterranean Sea: the second stage of development", Ocean Sci., 6, 263–267, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-6-263-2010">https://doi.org/10.5194/os-6-263-2010</a>, 2010. Pollard, R. T., Griffiths, M. J., Cunningham, S. A., Read, J. F., Perez, F. F., and Rios, A. F.: Vivaldi 1991-a study of the formation, circulation and ventilation of Eastern North Atlantic Central Water, Prog. Oceanogr., 37, 167–192, 1996. Popova, E. E., Lozano, C. J., Srokosz, M. A., Fasham, M. J. R., Haley, P. J., and Robinson, A. R.: Coupled 3d physical and biological modelling of the mesoscale variability observed in North-east Atlantic in Spring 1997: Biological processes, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. I, 49, 1741–1768, 2002. Proctor, R., Holt, J. T., Allen, J. I., and Blackford, J.: Nutrient fluxes and budgets for the North West European Shelf from a three-dimensional model, Sci. Total Environ., 314, 769–785, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0048-9697(03)00083-4">https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-9697(03)00083-4</a>, 2003. Roiha, P., Westerlund, A., Nummelin, A., and Stipa, T.: Ensemble forecasting of harmful algal blooms in the Baltic Sea, J. Marine Syst., 83, 210–220, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2010.02.015">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2010.02.015</a>, 2010. Russo, A., Coluccelli, A., Iermano, I., Falcieri, F., Ravaioli, M., Bortoluzzi, G., Focaccia, P., Stanghellini, G., Ferrari, C. R., Chiggiato, J., and Deserti, M.: An operational system for forecasting hypoxic events in the Northern Adriatic Sea, Geofizika, 26, 191–213, 2009. Sathyendranath, S., Stuart, V., Nair, A., Oka, K., Nakane, T., Bouman, H., Forget, M. H., Maass, H., and Platt, T.: Carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio and growth rate of phytoplankton in the sea, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 383, 73–84, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/Meps07998">https://doi.org/10.3354/Meps07998</a>, 2009. Siddorn, J. R., Allen, J. I., Blackford, J. C., Gilbert, F. J., Holt, J. T., Holt, M. W., Osborne, J. P., Proctor, R., and Mills, D. K.: Modelling the hydrodynamics and ecosystem of the North-west European Continental Shelf for operational oceanography, J. Marine Syst., 65, 417–429, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.01.018">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.01.018</a>, 2007. Skogen, M. D. and Moll, A.: Importance of ocean circulation in ecological modeling: An example from the North Sea, J. Marine Syst., 57, 289–300, 2005. Smith, S. V. and Hollibaugh, J. T.: Coastal metabolism and the oceanic organic-carbon balance, Rev. Geophys., 31, 75–89, 1993. Smyth, T. J., Fishwick, J. R., Al-Moosawi, L., Cummings, D. G., Harris, C., Kitidis, V., Rees, A., Martinez-Vicente, V., and Woodward, E. M. S.: A broad spatio-temporal view of the Western English Channel Observatory, J. Plankton Res., 32, 585–601, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/plankt/fbp128">https://doi.org/10.1093/plankt/fbp128</a>, 2010. Song, Y. H. and Haidvogel, D.: A semi-implicit ocean circulation model using a generalized topography-following coordinate system, J. Comput. Phys., 115, 228–244, 1994. Souza, A. J., Holt, J. T., and Proctor, R.: Modelling SPM on the Northwest European Shelf Seas., in: Coastal and shelf sediment transport, edited by: Balson, P. and Colins, M., The Geological Society, London, 2007. Storkey, D., Blockley, E. W., Furner, R., Guiavarc'h, C., Lea, D., Martin, M. J., Barciela, R. M., Hines, A., Hyder, P., and Siddorn, J. R.: Forecasting the ocean state using NEMO: The new FOAM system, J. Oper. Oceanogr., 3, 3–15, 2010. Sykes, P. A. and Barciela, R. M.: Assessment and development of a sediment model within an operational system, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C04036, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007420">https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007420</a>, 2012. Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 7183–7192, 2001. Throwbridge, J. H., Chapman, D. C., and Candela, J.: Topographic effects, straits and the bottom boundary layer, in: The Sea, edited by: Brink, K. H. and Robinson, A. R., 63–88, 1998. Tsagaraki, T. M., Petihakis, G., Tsiaras, K., Triantafyllou, G., Tsapakis, M., Korres, G., Kakagiannis, G., Frangoulis, C., and Karakassis, I.: Beyond the cage: Ecosystem modelling for impact evaluation in aquaculture, Ecol Model, 222, 2512–2523, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.11.027">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.11.027</a>, 2011. Umlauf, L. and Burchard, H.: A generic length-scale equation for geophysical turbulence models, J. Mar. Res., 61, 235–265, 2003. Wakelin, S. L., Holt, J. T., Blackford, J. C., Allen, J. I., Butenschön, M., and Artioli, Y.: Modeling the carbon fluxes of the northwest European continental shelf: Validation and budgets, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C05020, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007402">https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007402</a>, 2012. Wild-Allen, K., Herzfeld, M., Thompson, P. A., Rosebrock, U., Parslow, J., and Volkman, J. K.: Applied coastal biogeochemical modelling to quantify the environmental impact of fish farm nutrients and inform managers, J. Marine Syst., 81, 134–147, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.013">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.013</a>, 2010. Young, E. F. and Holt, J. T.: Prediction and analysis of long-term variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 112, C01008, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005jc003386">https://doi.org/10.1029/2005jc003386</a>, 2007.